http://digest.creaders.net/articleViewer.php?atid=288473&id=295541
日本作家渡边淳一写了一部名叫《失乐园》的关于婚外情的书，不知道你看过没有。事业失意的久木，偶识书法教师凛子，同样对不冷不热的家庭生活失望的两人，很快脱离轨道，坠入“婚外情”。在男欢女爱中，两人越来越合拍，深深沉浸于发现身体后的狂喜与体验。甚至凛子为父亲守灵期间，他们也难以自持，鱼水寻欢。但二人世界之外的现实，却越来越冷，无法容身。久木的家庭爆发冷战，凛子的丈夫嫉恨难平，为了报复而不愿离婚。一封匿名信，更是让久木遭到公司冷遇而辞职，最后的结局是二人殉情自杀，以其炽烈、执着、偏激、疯狂营造了一种凄清的美。这是一种畸恋之美。
这部小说给生者以鉴戒：人不是属于自己的，人是被家、群体和单位分割的存在，伦理、制度以及公共道德就是一张张的网，束缚着人也保护着人，任何突破和违拗都是要付出代价的，伤害自己也伤害别人。
当今社会，我们已经无法用一种道德的砝码来衡量婚外情，也没有理由用褒贬的眼光去看待这种情感。找情人，不管男人女人，都是为了平衡现实里无法平衡的东西。偷来的幸福也是一种幸福，这种幸福由于给双方带来愉悦刺激与满足使许多人乐此不疲，一些没偷到的人也在跃跃欲试。
可是，偷来的幸福毕竟给人不踏实的感觉，相拥相爱只能在无人的地方，有了快感也不敢喊，只能在黑夜里私语。更何况，偷情是有风险的，如同踩着钢丝走路，如果你有技巧，能掌握好平衡，你就是个幸运者。但是，在生活中有几个这样的幸运者呢？现实中我们要面对的东西太多了，稍有不慎就会出现无法收拾的结局。
然然，至于你该不该继续享受偷来的幸福，这是顺应你心意、自己看着办的事儿。你要记住：有一份浪漫就有一份伤害，有一份精彩就有一份疲惫。恒久的幸福应该是按部就班的。祝愿你拥有一份恒久的幸福！
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
汪 翔： 买房、租房与靠房市发财
买房、租房与靠房市发财
http://blog.creaders.net/laowang/user_blog_diary.php?did=68070
买房好还是租房好？对于这个问题，生活在不同时代和居住在不同地方的人，将会有非常不同的答案。很多朋友，包括我们自己，看到国内的朋友一个个大发，轻轻松松地积累了大量的让人眼馋的财富，会时不时的自叹，咱们是多么的“活不逢地”。
去年夏天，一位忙得没有多少时间理财的老同学，从上海来美国出差，说到他多年前以百万人民币在上海郊区购买的一套别墅，他的第二套房子。现在算起来，很轻易的，就凭这两套住房，他就已经跻身到千万富翁的行列了。大量的六十和七十年代的人们，即使没有父母的遗留财富，即使是居住在上海、深圳、北京、广州这样的一级城市，只有是在适当的时候心头灵活一点的，基本上都拥有数以千万人民币计的地产财富了。
一位居住在杭州的朋友，几年前，他老婆在一次买菜的路上，看到一栋房子在开始销售，就心血来潮的买了一栋。那种心态，和我们在自由市场上心血来潮多买了点蔬菜是一样的。不同的是，我们多买的蔬菜，多数最终以腐烂味终结，而他老婆的这个不小心的心血来潮，几年时间，就给他带来的，却是数百万的额外财富。那时候三千的价码，和现在三万五的价格比较一下，那种暴利，我不知道在世界上还有什么地方能够再看到。那里面的风险到底有多大，我是算不出来的。
这种发财的机会还会再来吗？是不是还在继续演进着？从大量的蜗居案例看，从大量的80后们因为没有住房而无法追寻爱情的哀思来看，答案似乎是否定的。
中国的国情和美国、日本的很不同。中国人“喜欢”住在自己的房子里面，社会也有要求你这样做的压力，否则，你就是一个失败者。
实际上，在美国，同样的情形也存在：如果一个三十几岁的“老人”还和自己的父母亲住在一起，不也是一种耻辱吗？再者，在美国，人们不也是视一个人是不是拥有自己的住房，为基本的“成功”标志吗？到成家立业的时候，很多美国家庭还是会选择购买属于自己的房子，住在一个学区比较好的地方，给自己未来的小宝宝提供一个比较好的生活和成长环境。
学区好，不又是因为那里的房价贵，当地政府能够从地产税获得足够的资金来支持一个好学区吗？而好的学区，是不是又反过来吸引力更多的需求，保持了房价的刚性？如果有大量的“穷人”在那里免费乘车，你的好学区又能够保持多久呢？
在普天之下，父母的心是一样的。不同的是，美国的房价上升缓慢，就像美国的经济成长速度一样。这也是一个经济成熟之后的必然表现。同时，也是这种成熟，让美国人很容易就能够承担得起住进一栋“属于”自己的房子里面，虽然代价是很难升值。
中国经济还是一个新生儿，还有很高的上升速度，外加中国人对于房市的过于喜爱，我估计，在可见的未来，那些想看到中国房市大跌一半的人，很可能会心灰意冷。对于政府拯救房奴和蜗居者的期待，最终获得的可能也是失望的结局。
如果中国的房市真的在突然之间下跌一半，会是一个什么样子的？
估计我们不是很难想像：那时候，全世界面临的将不是一个百年难遇的金融危机，而是一场人类的大浩劫！如果中国经济的增长速度突然下降到美国目前的水平，世界经济会是一个什么样子的？那时候，你我看到的恐怕也就只能是战争（对外）和肆无忌惮的排外（对内）了。
中国经济离不开房市的坚挺，世界经济离不开中国的房市坚挺，中国人民不会放弃中国的房市坚挺，这就是时代的需要和时代发展的必然性。
买房好，还是租房好？除了感觉上的考虑之外，从纯粹的经济角度考量，也不过就是房价上升幅度，利息率，税收等额外费用的综合计算而已。
下面附录里面的这篇来自湖北老乡的“后悔”文章，很有点夸张和哗众取宠的嫌疑。不过，这篇在两天时间内能够达到50万点击率的文章，倒是从一个侧面让我们看到了，国内人们对房市的关注程度。
这位老兄老是以想住“新房子”为理由一等再等，倒是很有点傻得“可爱”。眼看着房价一天一个样，即使是再傻的人，也能够算出来，在你付出相当于房价6%的租金的情况下，即使你的房子价值没有上升，那也相当于你放弃了6%的年利息了。在你支付20%的首付前提下，你的租金已经足够应付你的房贷利息了。在这种情况下，房价的任何上涨都会成为你的利润，相当于是无本万利的生意。
这位“九头鸟”的湖北佬，居然没有这种“九头鸟”的头脑？对于我，你不用为他感到太可惜。我估计，这位也只是为了哗众取宠而编造的一个故事，为的，也不过是以此来安慰那些新科的蜗居者而已。不过，这个故事倒是为我们说明了很重要的一点：人生的机会很多时候是不会重演的。在你有机会的时候，你还是得战战兢兢地面临挑战，即使是暗流汹涌的冰冷江水，当跳的时候你还是得跳。
最近在网上和人打桥牌，曾经碰到过一位以色列犹太人。有一次，我“责怪”说，他叫牌太冒险。他回答我说：如果你不大胆一点，你怎么可能追到班上最火辣的妹子呢？大家可以想想，当年，你们是不是因为“胆子小”或者害怕被拒绝（失败），而失去了很多追上辣妹子的机会呢？这或许也体现了犹太人的一种人生活法吧。或许，也是这种心态，让犹太人能够获得比其他人类更潇洒一点吧。
自己的桥牌水平一般，很不稳定。得意的时候有，“胡来”的时候也有。但是，通过打牌，以及和来自不同国度和不同个性的人们沟通，我倒是能时不时领悟到一些人生的“真谛”。
回到房市。在中国，通过房地产获得暴利的时代估计已经过去了。但是，这并不意味着就没有比较温和的获利机会。特别是在武汉那样的“二级”城市。即使是在一级城市，估计机会也还是有，但很难再有很容易获得的暴利的可能性了。而且，对于本金的要求也会越来越高，结果很可能就是：富者愈富，穷者愈穷。这又回到了我昨天贴的那篇文章的观点：下层中国人致富的路，很多已经被堵死了。这会不会成为未来中国内乱的根源？我不知道，反正，这种新的中国特色，对于中国经济的发展，倒是很没有效率。这种格局，很大程度上，可能还是目前中国政治制度的必然结果。
想在房市大幅度下跌的情况下捞底的可能性，我估计，也比较小，除非世界发生了什么特别大的“坏事件”，能够让人们对于中国的经济发展前景普遍性的失去信心。否则，光靠政府的政策打压，估计效果会非常有限。
出现“人类大灾难”的可能性有多大？
中国目前的政局似乎还算稳定，政府也还能够在一定程度上体谅民众的疾苦。人们也还能够辛辛苦苦的活下去。在这种格局下，中国出现大乱局的可能性很小。当年人们在香港回归前夕，曾经获得了一个难得的巨大投机机会，那是因为有太多的人太看扁了中国政府的能力和本事。类似的机会，我是看不出来的，至少在目前是这样。
如果那样的深刻真的出现了，那时候，如果你有大量的现金，倒是有可能有捡便宜发大财的机会，如果你还有胆量和眼光，如果那种乱局也只是暂时的现象，而如果大多数人觉得那又是“天下大乱”的开始。
同时满足这许多条件，是不是很难呢？
附录：十年租房让我损失两百万
临窗对雨 2010年08月24日
2001年初，厌倦了湖北的工作与生活，收拾行李，带着一家老小，南下去了深圳，被借聘到一所中学任教，收入转眼间从区区几百元暴增到2000元。可是，我并没有因此而高兴起来。因为我是独子，不管我去到哪里，总得将看迈的父母带上不是？加上孩子，全家五口总得有个安身立命的所在，无奈之下，只好租房。让我想不到的是，这房一租就是十年，更加让我想不到的是：十年的租房史，竟然让我损失了两百万！
由于学校地处深圳的繁华地带，加上又是名校，周边的住房不但价格高，房租也随之水涨船高。三房一厅，月租2000元，一个子也少不了。于是乎，我咬牙租了下来，一家五口人的日子只能靠妻子那不到2000元的薪水苦苦支撑，这个时候，我开始怀念湖北那种没有后顾之忧的日子，可惜，开弓没有回头箭。
这样的日子过了一年，我的借聘期过去了，工资涨到了3500元，全家人的生活因此略有改善。加上一年来工作业绩颇佳，在深圳教育界初露头角，不断有外校的学生找上门来请我作家教，一年之中，寒暑两个假期的家教，让我获得了不菲的收入。我重拾生活的信心，觉得幸福的日子就在眼前。
更让我心动的是，据说深圳的下一批福利房已经选址北环边的安托山，也许过不了三年两载，我就会住上属于自己的房子，有时候与妻夜谈，言语之间充满了对未来生活的向往。在深圳的第二年，老实说，是我最为幸福的一年。可是，为了这看得见还摸不着的幸福，我已经付出了48000元的房租！
第二年结束，房东找上门来，告知租房价格已经上涨，每月2500元，如果不愿意，可以另寻他处，别人可等着要租这房子啊。无奈之下，只好接受房东的要价。
月租2500元的生活持续了三年，又花去我84000元！三年的苦苦期盼之中，在2005年我终于看见安托山的住房工程动工了！这对我来说，是天大的利好，这意味着：在不久的将来，我终将拥有自己的房子。
身边的朋友劝我说：反正你每个月也要付那么多房租，不如在附近买一套算了。只需要交个首期十来万，每个月的月供与房租也差不多啊。我反对，因为在安托山那里，有我梦想中的新房子。新房子啊，我怎么可能花几十万去买二手房呢？！更何况，我已经为新房等了三年，多等三年又何妨？
想着房子的事情，房东再次找上门来，告诉我他要移民去加拿大，准备把房子出售，这五年来看我租房信誉不错，愿意让利将房子卖给我，他出价52万，我觉得这房子只值50万，双方僵持不下，不是我看重这两万，我内心非常清楚，我并不想买这套二手房。如果我要买，绝对不会在付了十几万元的房租之后再买！于是房东最后以52万的价格将房子卖给了他人，我只好从房子里搬了出来。
没想到这房东真的对我不错。当我再次踏入租房市场的时候，才发现这几年房东一直以便宜于市场的价格租房给我。再次无奈，以月租3500元的价格再租了一套。住了一年，价格便涨到4000元一月，两年下来，再花费90000元。
这时候深圳与全国的房格开始起飞。当初房东想卖给我的那套房子，两年之间悄然涨了一倍，已值百万之巨！我有点后悔了。但是，每当我看到安托山的工程进展顺利的时候，心里还是松了一口气：我不是会有新房么？
2007年底，我看到安托山的房子拔地而起，马上就要峻工了。逢人便很高兴地说：“我马上会有自己的福利房了，何必花大价钱去买房呢？”可是2008年过去了，已经峻工的安托山没有分配的消息，2009年，仍然没有，直到现在，这房子的分配方案也没有定下来。可这三年之中，我又得为我的租房付出144000元！至此，我已经租房十年，十年之中，共花费租房费用366000元！
经过几年的疯涨，当初我没有买下来的那套房子，价格已经涨到200万！我一万次在深夜想，如果当初我买下那房子，会是一种什么样的结果？那可以让我净赚近200万啊。当我为了福利新房而深陷租房泥潭的时候，不知道不觉之中，巨额的财富已经离我而去。而我身边买了房的同事与朋友，个个用异样的眼光看着我这个大傻瓜。
如此高昂的房价，让我这个租房者已经没有买房的本钱了。我只能坐等福利房的分配政策下来，哪怕等到我白发苍苍的那一天……
（本文根据朋友真实故事整理而成）
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作者：令狐冲 留言时间：2010-08-26 11:49:14
汪翔兄，一直潜水读你的博客，受惠良多，谢谢好文！
中国我们错过了的机会，在美国现在是不是又有了良机了呢？我最近到佛罗里达去，看到那里的房价跌得一塌糊涂。我看了clear water市海边的一个有300多套condo的gated community居然全部是bank owned了。一套06~07年高峰期卖到50多万的海景公寓现在居然只喊价7.5万，应该是难得的机会吧。如果美国将来是通胀而不是通缩，则我们应该买房子，而且现在利率这么低，尽可能的贷更多的固定利率的贷款来买更多的房子，是不是正确的做法？对通胀和通缩的几率你怎么看，有日本的前例在那里，美国会不会有通缩和滞涨的风险？
还有，我见过从房子赚到钱的例子很多（中美皆是），从股票赚钱的例子很少，反而股票亏钱的例子比比皆是。万维一位博主说，股票是聪明人玩的，房子是普通人都可以玩的，汪翔兄怎么看？
我很同意你说的，“下层中国人致富的路，很多已经被堵死了。这会不会成为未来中国内乱的根源？”，想补充一点，下层中国人从政的路，如果也被堵死，绝对会成为中国将来内乱的根源。寒门精英如果不能被统治阶层有效地吸收，就会成为将来的黄巢洪秀全。只是工人下岗还不可怕，工人下岗加上大学生就业难就可怕了。
作者：昭君 留言时间：2010-08-26 16:23:03
老汪这篇理论和实际兼并的文章，和寒天的“八卦话买房” 正好相映成趣啊。
你说的这位“九头鸟”，让我想起一位上海的朋友。此君是音乐学院的教授，但在买房的事情上一直赶不上趟 -- 当另外一些同事纷纷“大胆”地在郊区或者城区“一掷百万金”购得房子的时候，他老兄总是说“会降的，再等等，再等等”，甚至大家传开了他去房交所讲价，每次都让人家“再降一百块，再降一百块”(单价啦)的故事。结果是可以想象的，当他的同事们当初几十万一百万买的房子现在成倍翻番的今天，这位老兄却只能“望房兴叹”了。
这种现象肯定不正常，但问题是，当地方政府和权势阶层“不希望”房价降温的时候，是否就会一直这样下去？虽然我也不认为每个人不分青红皂白都要在大城市买房，而且是买好房，是合理的要求(其实美国当初的次贷泡沫， 从一定程度上来说和克林顿时代大力推动“居者有其屋”的“理念”有关系)，但房价泡沫太多，到了许多收入不菲的人们都“望尘莫及”的地步，就应该有所动作了。
作者：米笑 留言时间：2010-08-26 18:15:33
好文。只要房市好，买房确实发财，国内还没有经历过房市大跌的时候，没有人可以体会房市的风险，所以都很勇敢。
http://blog.creaders.net/laowang/user_blog_diary.php?did=68070
买房好还是租房好？对于这个问题，生活在不同时代和居住在不同地方的人，将会有非常不同的答案。很多朋友，包括我们自己，看到国内的朋友一个个大发，轻轻松松地积累了大量的让人眼馋的财富，会时不时的自叹，咱们是多么的“活不逢地”。
去年夏天，一位忙得没有多少时间理财的老同学，从上海来美国出差，说到他多年前以百万人民币在上海郊区购买的一套别墅，他的第二套房子。现在算起来，很轻易的，就凭这两套住房，他就已经跻身到千万富翁的行列了。大量的六十和七十年代的人们，即使没有父母的遗留财富，即使是居住在上海、深圳、北京、广州这样的一级城市，只有是在适当的时候心头灵活一点的，基本上都拥有数以千万人民币计的地产财富了。
一位居住在杭州的朋友，几年前，他老婆在一次买菜的路上，看到一栋房子在开始销售，就心血来潮的买了一栋。那种心态，和我们在自由市场上心血来潮多买了点蔬菜是一样的。不同的是，我们多买的蔬菜，多数最终以腐烂味终结，而他老婆的这个不小心的心血来潮，几年时间，就给他带来的，却是数百万的额外财富。那时候三千的价码，和现在三万五的价格比较一下，那种暴利，我不知道在世界上还有什么地方能够再看到。那里面的风险到底有多大，我是算不出来的。
这种发财的机会还会再来吗？是不是还在继续演进着？从大量的蜗居案例看，从大量的80后们因为没有住房而无法追寻爱情的哀思来看，答案似乎是否定的。
中国的国情和美国、日本的很不同。中国人“喜欢”住在自己的房子里面，社会也有要求你这样做的压力，否则，你就是一个失败者。
实际上，在美国，同样的情形也存在：如果一个三十几岁的“老人”还和自己的父母亲住在一起，不也是一种耻辱吗？再者，在美国，人们不也是视一个人是不是拥有自己的住房，为基本的“成功”标志吗？到成家立业的时候，很多美国家庭还是会选择购买属于自己的房子，住在一个学区比较好的地方，给自己未来的小宝宝提供一个比较好的生活和成长环境。
学区好，不又是因为那里的房价贵，当地政府能够从地产税获得足够的资金来支持一个好学区吗？而好的学区，是不是又反过来吸引力更多的需求，保持了房价的刚性？如果有大量的“穷人”在那里免费乘车，你的好学区又能够保持多久呢？
在普天之下，父母的心是一样的。不同的是，美国的房价上升缓慢，就像美国的经济成长速度一样。这也是一个经济成熟之后的必然表现。同时，也是这种成熟，让美国人很容易就能够承担得起住进一栋“属于”自己的房子里面，虽然代价是很难升值。
中国经济还是一个新生儿，还有很高的上升速度，外加中国人对于房市的过于喜爱，我估计，在可见的未来，那些想看到中国房市大跌一半的人，很可能会心灰意冷。对于政府拯救房奴和蜗居者的期待，最终获得的可能也是失望的结局。
如果中国的房市真的在突然之间下跌一半，会是一个什么样子的？
估计我们不是很难想像：那时候，全世界面临的将不是一个百年难遇的金融危机，而是一场人类的大浩劫！如果中国经济的增长速度突然下降到美国目前的水平，世界经济会是一个什么样子的？那时候，你我看到的恐怕也就只能是战争（对外）和肆无忌惮的排外（对内）了。
中国经济离不开房市的坚挺，世界经济离不开中国的房市坚挺，中国人民不会放弃中国的房市坚挺，这就是时代的需要和时代发展的必然性。
买房好，还是租房好？除了感觉上的考虑之外，从纯粹的经济角度考量，也不过就是房价上升幅度，利息率，税收等额外费用的综合计算而已。
下面附录里面的这篇来自湖北老乡的“后悔”文章，很有点夸张和哗众取宠的嫌疑。不过，这篇在两天时间内能够达到50万点击率的文章，倒是从一个侧面让我们看到了，国内人们对房市的关注程度。
这位老兄老是以想住“新房子”为理由一等再等，倒是很有点傻得“可爱”。眼看着房价一天一个样，即使是再傻的人，也能够算出来，在你付出相当于房价6%的租金的情况下，即使你的房子价值没有上升，那也相当于你放弃了6%的年利息了。在你支付20%的首付前提下，你的租金已经足够应付你的房贷利息了。在这种情况下，房价的任何上涨都会成为你的利润，相当于是无本万利的生意。
这位“九头鸟”的湖北佬，居然没有这种“九头鸟”的头脑？对于我，你不用为他感到太可惜。我估计，这位也只是为了哗众取宠而编造的一个故事，为的，也不过是以此来安慰那些新科的蜗居者而已。不过，这个故事倒是为我们说明了很重要的一点：人生的机会很多时候是不会重演的。在你有机会的时候，你还是得战战兢兢地面临挑战，即使是暗流汹涌的冰冷江水，当跳的时候你还是得跳。
最近在网上和人打桥牌，曾经碰到过一位以色列犹太人。有一次，我“责怪”说，他叫牌太冒险。他回答我说：如果你不大胆一点，你怎么可能追到班上最火辣的妹子呢？大家可以想想，当年，你们是不是因为“胆子小”或者害怕被拒绝（失败），而失去了很多追上辣妹子的机会呢？这或许也体现了犹太人的一种人生活法吧。或许，也是这种心态，让犹太人能够获得比其他人类更潇洒一点吧。
自己的桥牌水平一般，很不稳定。得意的时候有，“胡来”的时候也有。但是，通过打牌，以及和来自不同国度和不同个性的人们沟通，我倒是能时不时领悟到一些人生的“真谛”。
回到房市。在中国，通过房地产获得暴利的时代估计已经过去了。但是，这并不意味着就没有比较温和的获利机会。特别是在武汉那样的“二级”城市。即使是在一级城市，估计机会也还是有，但很难再有很容易获得的暴利的可能性了。而且，对于本金的要求也会越来越高，结果很可能就是：富者愈富，穷者愈穷。这又回到了我昨天贴的那篇文章的观点：下层中国人致富的路，很多已经被堵死了。这会不会成为未来中国内乱的根源？我不知道，反正，这种新的中国特色，对于中国经济的发展，倒是很没有效率。这种格局，很大程度上，可能还是目前中国政治制度的必然结果。
想在房市大幅度下跌的情况下捞底的可能性，我估计，也比较小，除非世界发生了什么特别大的“坏事件”，能够让人们对于中国的经济发展前景普遍性的失去信心。否则，光靠政府的政策打压，估计效果会非常有限。
出现“人类大灾难”的可能性有多大？
中国目前的政局似乎还算稳定，政府也还能够在一定程度上体谅民众的疾苦。人们也还能够辛辛苦苦的活下去。在这种格局下，中国出现大乱局的可能性很小。当年人们在香港回归前夕，曾经获得了一个难得的巨大投机机会，那是因为有太多的人太看扁了中国政府的能力和本事。类似的机会，我是看不出来的，至少在目前是这样。
如果那样的深刻真的出现了，那时候，如果你有大量的现金，倒是有可能有捡便宜发大财的机会，如果你还有胆量和眼光，如果那种乱局也只是暂时的现象，而如果大多数人觉得那又是“天下大乱”的开始。
同时满足这许多条件，是不是很难呢？
附录：十年租房让我损失两百万
临窗对雨 2010年08月24日
2001年初，厌倦了湖北的工作与生活，收拾行李，带着一家老小，南下去了深圳，被借聘到一所中学任教，收入转眼间从区区几百元暴增到2000元。可是，我并没有因此而高兴起来。因为我是独子，不管我去到哪里，总得将看迈的父母带上不是？加上孩子，全家五口总得有个安身立命的所在，无奈之下，只好租房。让我想不到的是，这房一租就是十年，更加让我想不到的是：十年的租房史，竟然让我损失了两百万！
由于学校地处深圳的繁华地带，加上又是名校，周边的住房不但价格高，房租也随之水涨船高。三房一厅，月租2000元，一个子也少不了。于是乎，我咬牙租了下来，一家五口人的日子只能靠妻子那不到2000元的薪水苦苦支撑，这个时候，我开始怀念湖北那种没有后顾之忧的日子，可惜，开弓没有回头箭。
这样的日子过了一年，我的借聘期过去了，工资涨到了3500元，全家人的生活因此略有改善。加上一年来工作业绩颇佳，在深圳教育界初露头角，不断有外校的学生找上门来请我作家教，一年之中，寒暑两个假期的家教，让我获得了不菲的收入。我重拾生活的信心，觉得幸福的日子就在眼前。
更让我心动的是，据说深圳的下一批福利房已经选址北环边的安托山，也许过不了三年两载，我就会住上属于自己的房子，有时候与妻夜谈，言语之间充满了对未来生活的向往。在深圳的第二年，老实说，是我最为幸福的一年。可是，为了这看得见还摸不着的幸福，我已经付出了48000元的房租！
第二年结束，房东找上门来，告知租房价格已经上涨，每月2500元，如果不愿意，可以另寻他处，别人可等着要租这房子啊。无奈之下，只好接受房东的要价。
月租2500元的生活持续了三年，又花去我84000元！三年的苦苦期盼之中，在2005年我终于看见安托山的住房工程动工了！这对我来说，是天大的利好，这意味着：在不久的将来，我终将拥有自己的房子。
身边的朋友劝我说：反正你每个月也要付那么多房租，不如在附近买一套算了。只需要交个首期十来万，每个月的月供与房租也差不多啊。我反对，因为在安托山那里，有我梦想中的新房子。新房子啊，我怎么可能花几十万去买二手房呢？！更何况，我已经为新房等了三年，多等三年又何妨？
想着房子的事情，房东再次找上门来，告诉我他要移民去加拿大，准备把房子出售，这五年来看我租房信誉不错，愿意让利将房子卖给我，他出价52万，我觉得这房子只值50万，双方僵持不下，不是我看重这两万，我内心非常清楚，我并不想买这套二手房。如果我要买，绝对不会在付了十几万元的房租之后再买！于是房东最后以52万的价格将房子卖给了他人，我只好从房子里搬了出来。
没想到这房东真的对我不错。当我再次踏入租房市场的时候，才发现这几年房东一直以便宜于市场的价格租房给我。再次无奈，以月租3500元的价格再租了一套。住了一年，价格便涨到4000元一月，两年下来，再花费90000元。
这时候深圳与全国的房格开始起飞。当初房东想卖给我的那套房子，两年之间悄然涨了一倍，已值百万之巨！我有点后悔了。但是，每当我看到安托山的工程进展顺利的时候，心里还是松了一口气：我不是会有新房么？
2007年底，我看到安托山的房子拔地而起，马上就要峻工了。逢人便很高兴地说：“我马上会有自己的福利房了，何必花大价钱去买房呢？”可是2008年过去了，已经峻工的安托山没有分配的消息，2009年，仍然没有，直到现在，这房子的分配方案也没有定下来。可这三年之中，我又得为我的租房付出144000元！至此，我已经租房十年，十年之中，共花费租房费用366000元！
经过几年的疯涨，当初我没有买下来的那套房子，价格已经涨到200万！我一万次在深夜想，如果当初我买下那房子，会是一种什么样的结果？那可以让我净赚近200万啊。当我为了福利新房而深陷租房泥潭的时候，不知道不觉之中，巨额的财富已经离我而去。而我身边买了房的同事与朋友，个个用异样的眼光看着我这个大傻瓜。
如此高昂的房价，让我这个租房者已经没有买房的本钱了。我只能坐等福利房的分配政策下来，哪怕等到我白发苍苍的那一天……
（本文根据朋友真实故事整理而成）
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作者：令狐冲 留言时间：2010-08-26 11:49:14
汪翔兄，一直潜水读你的博客，受惠良多，谢谢好文！
中国我们错过了的机会，在美国现在是不是又有了良机了呢？我最近到佛罗里达去，看到那里的房价跌得一塌糊涂。我看了clear water市海边的一个有300多套condo的gated community居然全部是bank owned了。一套06~07年高峰期卖到50多万的海景公寓现在居然只喊价7.5万，应该是难得的机会吧。如果美国将来是通胀而不是通缩，则我们应该买房子，而且现在利率这么低，尽可能的贷更多的固定利率的贷款来买更多的房子，是不是正确的做法？对通胀和通缩的几率你怎么看，有日本的前例在那里，美国会不会有通缩和滞涨的风险？
还有，我见过从房子赚到钱的例子很多（中美皆是），从股票赚钱的例子很少，反而股票亏钱的例子比比皆是。万维一位博主说，股票是聪明人玩的，房子是普通人都可以玩的，汪翔兄怎么看？
我很同意你说的，“下层中国人致富的路，很多已经被堵死了。这会不会成为未来中国内乱的根源？”，想补充一点，下层中国人从政的路，如果也被堵死，绝对会成为中国将来内乱的根源。寒门精英如果不能被统治阶层有效地吸收，就会成为将来的黄巢洪秀全。只是工人下岗还不可怕，工人下岗加上大学生就业难就可怕了。
作者：昭君 留言时间：2010-08-26 16:23:03
老汪这篇理论和实际兼并的文章，和寒天的“八卦话买房” 正好相映成趣啊。
你说的这位“九头鸟”，让我想起一位上海的朋友。此君是音乐学院的教授，但在买房的事情上一直赶不上趟 -- 当另外一些同事纷纷“大胆”地在郊区或者城区“一掷百万金”购得房子的时候，他老兄总是说“会降的，再等等，再等等”，甚至大家传开了他去房交所讲价，每次都让人家“再降一百块，再降一百块”(单价啦)的故事。结果是可以想象的，当他的同事们当初几十万一百万买的房子现在成倍翻番的今天，这位老兄却只能“望房兴叹”了。
这种现象肯定不正常，但问题是，当地方政府和权势阶层“不希望”房价降温的时候，是否就会一直这样下去？虽然我也不认为每个人不分青红皂白都要在大城市买房，而且是买好房，是合理的要求(其实美国当初的次贷泡沫， 从一定程度上来说和克林顿时代大力推动“居者有其屋”的“理念”有关系)，但房价泡沫太多，到了许多收入不菲的人们都“望尘莫及”的地步，就应该有所动作了。
作者：米笑 留言时间：2010-08-26 18:15:33
好文。只要房市好，买房确实发财，国内还没有经历过房市大跌的时候，没有人可以体会房市的风险，所以都很勇敢。
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
[转贴] 华夏快递 : 老秃笔：投机乎投资乎——闲谈股市的特性 (ZT)
[转贴] 华夏快递 : 老秃笔：投机乎投资乎——闲谈股市的特性 (ZT)
http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=89778 ·老秃笔·
笔者从事金融行业多年，深知股市是一个大鱼吃小鱼，互相蒙的地方。
我始终搞不懂为什么美国金融行业非要把赌博性极强的股市称作投资而不老实称作投机。投资的说法，好像你把钱放进去，那钱就自动生长，大钱自动生小钱似的。
美国金融业这种说法非常骗人，给普通老百姓造成错误印象，天真地以为把钱放进股市去，就真可以等着股票上升，到时候水到渠成，伸手捞钱就行了。
华尔街也假模假式地警告市场风险。这意思，在我看来，就是先把自己摘干净。万一你买的股票下跌，不，还不是万一，是如果，用万一这个词汇太便宜你了。那你岂不是有太大把握赚钱了吗？所以，如果你买的股票下跌，那你不用怨谁，那是市场风险。
可是问题在于，华尔街让人买股票，基金，不遣余力，使劲浑身解数鼓吹，让百姓们燃起希望之火，把人们的贪挛本性煽动起来，而对于所谓的风险却轻描淡写，用小号字体放在不显眼的地方。
关键在于这是一场不公平的游戏。一方是华尔街集体，利用自己具有的各种优越条件，占尽先机，在股市里呼风唤雨，轻易捞取巨额暴利。一方是无知的百姓，几乎不懂金融知识，不可能得到内部消息，基本处于被支配被和谐的下风。这就形成鲜明的对比：为了把你的钱套出来，轰轰烈烈，竭尽所能。而把你钱搞丢的可能只一带而过，满足法律上最低要求，让你忽视那点警告，最后还得怨自己马虎大意。使得华尔街无懈可击，立于不败之地。
股市是一个零和游戏，Zero sum game. 说白了，就是玩票者们互相间赌博。大家把各自金钱放进去，就看谁眼明手快了。伶俐的，自然会捞进多。痴傻的肯定是赔钱货。有人赚钱，自然有人丢钱。试想，股市不能生产出新钱，那么，你赚的钱就是后来进来的人的钱。当你用五元买入，十元抛出，欢天喜地地赚一倍时候，那后来用十元买的人很可能因为股市明天修正而转身就看到自己的股票掉到五元。他的唯一希望在于更多的人进来用自己的钱哄抬股市，最后使得他的股票回到十元或者更高价位。如果该股票继续升高，那用十元买进的人就高兴了。他可能用十五元抛掉。那股票也可能在十五元上不再上涨，再次回到十元。
总而言之，股市任何时候可以进场，可以出场。进场不算，出场算。反正会有人捏着满手股票不能卖，不然就赔钱。赔多赔少总是赔。中国俗话说，出水才看二腿泥，就是这个道理。
赌场营业24小时不间断。股市倒是有时间限制。你想晚上，周末玩也不行。
赌场毫无疑问在“炒”客人。赌客们你来我往地涌入赌场，几乎所有人，99%的人群一定会输钱。赌客们倒也不多抱怨。大家知道这是什么地方，来的目的是玩，捞上了吃喝一通，输光了就走。赌场用的是希望和声色犬马来吸引客人。人家赌场从来不标榜“投资” 虽然你进去也有可能赚钱。
华尔街也是在炒客人。大小股票公司的客户“死亡率”很高。当然，这里说的“死亡率”是说客人的帐户里因为股票下跌而几乎成零的现象。尤其小股票公司，基本上靠倒腾小股票给客人，给自己赚高手续费。其结果多是“坑杀”客人。历史上秦始皇“坑杀”赵卒40万，那是真刀真枪地杀人。这美国股市上也是哀鸿遍野，百姓中被“坑杀”钱财的不计其数。曾经听一位犹太股票经纪开玩笑说，他“杀”的犹太人比希特勒杀的还多。虽然是个玩笑，可也如实道出股票经纪和客人的关系并不是如华尔街所吹嘘的那样。
股票也有周期兴旺和衰亡。
老牌公司可以维持几十年不坠。其业务实力的确让股票持有者斩获丰厚。我看到有客人持有三十年前买的各种股票，成本只有几百元，如今价值若干万元。尤其老太太们喜欢攒东西。把股票也按照针头线脑的攒着。还真攒出一副好家底子。反过来，我也看到大把的客人一手烂股票，比如十年前买的朗讯，三角航空，世界电讯等。看他们的成本全是这些公司风光时候进场买进的。当时，你要买这些股票，谁都会赞成，绝对没人说起风险这二个字儿的。所以，如果你赶上公司处于上升阶段，坐顺风车，那就是事半功倍。这股市就是如假包换的投资生钱的好地方。反之，你遇到公司业绩不良，不要多少时间，就会看到满手烂股票。那时候，你会后悔莫及，锤打脑袋，痛苦万分。股市对于你来讲，就是骑上老虎，被一口口地啃着血肉。
即便对华尔街总体上用美丽词藻“投资”掩盖令人害怕的词汇“投机”很不以为然，我个人认为，股市也不完全是赌博游戏。
它的基本点还是在公司业绩好坏上。那些大型公司业绩稳定，其股价升降也基本上反映了公司业绩。小型公司，业绩不稳定。自然会有大升大降的现象。大型公司后面有很多投资机构作研究，很多华尔街分析师作跟踪，其股价浮动基本有道理在后面。买大型公司的股票，比较令我安心。而小型公司的主要问题不光是业绩不稳定，还在于它的股价可能被个别股票公司操纵。如果遇到这种股价被几个金融公司操纵的小股票，最好是赶紧出场。小客户是无法玩过庄家的。可是，小公司的便宜股票的确很吸引人。所需资本少，如果赶上有人炒它，即所谓上升阶段，那回收让常让你喜出望外。所以，很多人专门玩小股票，不光是玩的心跳的感觉，也冲着那可能的丰厚汇报而来的。同样，有一利必有一弊。小股票玩多了，一定会可能被套牢赔惨。中国俗话说，上得山多终遇虎，也是说这种可能性的。
说到这里，有人会问，那咱们就不在股市里翻跟头了，行不？嘿嘿，不要被我吓怕了。股市这玩意儿，还是要碰一碰的。全看你怎么应付风险了。怎么办？咱们套用红朝太祖毛爷的一句话，叫做“打的赢就打，打不赢就跑。”任何时候不用全部本钱，小打小闹的，就不用着急。任何时候如果你的股票下跌，尤其因为盈利不好，作假帐，对手发行新产品，等因素的话，你就要赶紧跑。千万不要抱幻想，满心希望这种股票回升。大部分人丢钱在于人的脆弱本性。不舍得“壮士断臂” 他的股票掉五毛钱，他不会舍得抛。等掉五块钱时候，他就把股票当做老婆孩子，死活守定了。其结果，自然是灾难性的。一次就风雨凋零，翘辫子了。相反，如果建立止损概念和机制，只要手里的股票掉到某个点，就坚决抛掉，很可能你还能亏几次才能伤筋动骨的。
美国股市和世界所有股市都具有投资和投机二种特质。问题在于如何减少投机性，增加投资性。这个问题，可以套用孙子兵法中的名言，“知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆。”
如何能够减少投机性质呢？我认为，多学习，不盲目给人家送钱花是第一任务。不论你是哪个行业的翘楚，只要不是金融方面的，你就一定要自己研修金融知识，股市知识，达到知彼知己的境界。这样，你在决定投入股市时候才能知道自己在作什么。即便作错了，也知道什么地方错了。切不可听人言即随之。尤其，对于股票经纪的花言巧语，一定要提高警惕。对于股票选择，要少买小公司，不买不知道的公司。防止被人推销一手烂股票，还在那里作发财梦讷。作为小投机者，或者好听点，小投资者，大家一定要作些基本研究。不用自己找材料费心力的话，也要多看股市高手的评论。从中综合看出主流。一般不要听信陌生股票经纪的信口开河。除非他多次证明自己有能力给你赚钱。
华尔街贪得无厌自不待言。他们的丰厚薪水就是万千百姓出的。他们人数再多，也不过是几十万人。这些人垄断了现行体制的左右资源，形成自私自利自肥的阶层，对社会稳定造成很大威胁。
我不是绝对反对华尔街。他们玩的那些公司上市，合并买卖，对于商业发展还是有所帮助的，但是他们玩的各种所谓金融衍生产品就基本是圈钱游戏了。这次前所未闻的大金融危机，在很大程度上，华尔街罪责难逃。
简而言之，股市是一个具有很强投机性质的场所。尤其短期操作，更是投机性，技巧性极强。而如果你把目标放远，给你所选定的公司一些时间努力，而且公司努力也有结果的话，则你是在投资。耐心是投资中的一个重要因素。投资应该属长期行为，你的判断也要言之有物，言之有理。
最后套用邓爷常被人引用的那句名言：不管白猫黑猫，能捉老鼠就是好猫。同样，不管是投机还是投资，只要能够赚钱，就是硬道理。
http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=89778 ·老秃笔·
笔者从事金融行业多年，深知股市是一个大鱼吃小鱼，互相蒙的地方。
我始终搞不懂为什么美国金融行业非要把赌博性极强的股市称作投资而不老实称作投机。投资的说法，好像你把钱放进去，那钱就自动生长，大钱自动生小钱似的。
美国金融业这种说法非常骗人，给普通老百姓造成错误印象，天真地以为把钱放进股市去，就真可以等着股票上升，到时候水到渠成，伸手捞钱就行了。
华尔街也假模假式地警告市场风险。这意思，在我看来，就是先把自己摘干净。万一你买的股票下跌，不，还不是万一，是如果，用万一这个词汇太便宜你了。那你岂不是有太大把握赚钱了吗？所以，如果你买的股票下跌，那你不用怨谁，那是市场风险。
可是问题在于，华尔街让人买股票，基金，不遣余力，使劲浑身解数鼓吹，让百姓们燃起希望之火，把人们的贪挛本性煽动起来，而对于所谓的风险却轻描淡写，用小号字体放在不显眼的地方。
关键在于这是一场不公平的游戏。一方是华尔街集体，利用自己具有的各种优越条件，占尽先机，在股市里呼风唤雨，轻易捞取巨额暴利。一方是无知的百姓，几乎不懂金融知识，不可能得到内部消息，基本处于被支配被和谐的下风。这就形成鲜明的对比：为了把你的钱套出来，轰轰烈烈，竭尽所能。而把你钱搞丢的可能只一带而过，满足法律上最低要求，让你忽视那点警告，最后还得怨自己马虎大意。使得华尔街无懈可击，立于不败之地。
股市是一个零和游戏，Zero sum game. 说白了，就是玩票者们互相间赌博。大家把各自金钱放进去，就看谁眼明手快了。伶俐的，自然会捞进多。痴傻的肯定是赔钱货。有人赚钱，自然有人丢钱。试想，股市不能生产出新钱，那么，你赚的钱就是后来进来的人的钱。当你用五元买入，十元抛出，欢天喜地地赚一倍时候，那后来用十元买的人很可能因为股市明天修正而转身就看到自己的股票掉到五元。他的唯一希望在于更多的人进来用自己的钱哄抬股市，最后使得他的股票回到十元或者更高价位。如果该股票继续升高，那用十元买进的人就高兴了。他可能用十五元抛掉。那股票也可能在十五元上不再上涨，再次回到十元。
总而言之，股市任何时候可以进场，可以出场。进场不算，出场算。反正会有人捏着满手股票不能卖，不然就赔钱。赔多赔少总是赔。中国俗话说，出水才看二腿泥，就是这个道理。
赌场营业24小时不间断。股市倒是有时间限制。你想晚上，周末玩也不行。
赌场毫无疑问在“炒”客人。赌客们你来我往地涌入赌场，几乎所有人，99%的人群一定会输钱。赌客们倒也不多抱怨。大家知道这是什么地方，来的目的是玩，捞上了吃喝一通，输光了就走。赌场用的是希望和声色犬马来吸引客人。人家赌场从来不标榜“投资” 虽然你进去也有可能赚钱。
华尔街也是在炒客人。大小股票公司的客户“死亡率”很高。当然，这里说的“死亡率”是说客人的帐户里因为股票下跌而几乎成零的现象。尤其小股票公司，基本上靠倒腾小股票给客人，给自己赚高手续费。其结果多是“坑杀”客人。历史上秦始皇“坑杀”赵卒40万，那是真刀真枪地杀人。这美国股市上也是哀鸿遍野，百姓中被“坑杀”钱财的不计其数。曾经听一位犹太股票经纪开玩笑说，他“杀”的犹太人比希特勒杀的还多。虽然是个玩笑，可也如实道出股票经纪和客人的关系并不是如华尔街所吹嘘的那样。
股票也有周期兴旺和衰亡。
老牌公司可以维持几十年不坠。其业务实力的确让股票持有者斩获丰厚。我看到有客人持有三十年前买的各种股票，成本只有几百元，如今价值若干万元。尤其老太太们喜欢攒东西。把股票也按照针头线脑的攒着。还真攒出一副好家底子。反过来，我也看到大把的客人一手烂股票，比如十年前买的朗讯，三角航空，世界电讯等。看他们的成本全是这些公司风光时候进场买进的。当时，你要买这些股票，谁都会赞成，绝对没人说起风险这二个字儿的。所以，如果你赶上公司处于上升阶段，坐顺风车，那就是事半功倍。这股市就是如假包换的投资生钱的好地方。反之，你遇到公司业绩不良，不要多少时间，就会看到满手烂股票。那时候，你会后悔莫及，锤打脑袋，痛苦万分。股市对于你来讲，就是骑上老虎，被一口口地啃着血肉。
即便对华尔街总体上用美丽词藻“投资”掩盖令人害怕的词汇“投机”很不以为然，我个人认为，股市也不完全是赌博游戏。
它的基本点还是在公司业绩好坏上。那些大型公司业绩稳定，其股价升降也基本上反映了公司业绩。小型公司，业绩不稳定。自然会有大升大降的现象。大型公司后面有很多投资机构作研究，很多华尔街分析师作跟踪，其股价浮动基本有道理在后面。买大型公司的股票，比较令我安心。而小型公司的主要问题不光是业绩不稳定，还在于它的股价可能被个别股票公司操纵。如果遇到这种股价被几个金融公司操纵的小股票，最好是赶紧出场。小客户是无法玩过庄家的。可是，小公司的便宜股票的确很吸引人。所需资本少，如果赶上有人炒它，即所谓上升阶段，那回收让常让你喜出望外。所以，很多人专门玩小股票，不光是玩的心跳的感觉，也冲着那可能的丰厚汇报而来的。同样，有一利必有一弊。小股票玩多了，一定会可能被套牢赔惨。中国俗话说，上得山多终遇虎，也是说这种可能性的。
说到这里，有人会问，那咱们就不在股市里翻跟头了，行不？嘿嘿，不要被我吓怕了。股市这玩意儿，还是要碰一碰的。全看你怎么应付风险了。怎么办？咱们套用红朝太祖毛爷的一句话，叫做“打的赢就打，打不赢就跑。”任何时候不用全部本钱，小打小闹的，就不用着急。任何时候如果你的股票下跌，尤其因为盈利不好，作假帐，对手发行新产品，等因素的话，你就要赶紧跑。千万不要抱幻想，满心希望这种股票回升。大部分人丢钱在于人的脆弱本性。不舍得“壮士断臂” 他的股票掉五毛钱，他不会舍得抛。等掉五块钱时候，他就把股票当做老婆孩子，死活守定了。其结果，自然是灾难性的。一次就风雨凋零，翘辫子了。相反，如果建立止损概念和机制，只要手里的股票掉到某个点，就坚决抛掉，很可能你还能亏几次才能伤筋动骨的。
美国股市和世界所有股市都具有投资和投机二种特质。问题在于如何减少投机性，增加投资性。这个问题，可以套用孙子兵法中的名言，“知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆。”
如何能够减少投机性质呢？我认为，多学习，不盲目给人家送钱花是第一任务。不论你是哪个行业的翘楚，只要不是金融方面的，你就一定要自己研修金融知识，股市知识，达到知彼知己的境界。这样，你在决定投入股市时候才能知道自己在作什么。即便作错了，也知道什么地方错了。切不可听人言即随之。尤其，对于股票经纪的花言巧语，一定要提高警惕。对于股票选择，要少买小公司，不买不知道的公司。防止被人推销一手烂股票，还在那里作发财梦讷。作为小投机者，或者好听点，小投资者，大家一定要作些基本研究。不用自己找材料费心力的话，也要多看股市高手的评论。从中综合看出主流。一般不要听信陌生股票经纪的信口开河。除非他多次证明自己有能力给你赚钱。
华尔街贪得无厌自不待言。他们的丰厚薪水就是万千百姓出的。他们人数再多，也不过是几十万人。这些人垄断了现行体制的左右资源，形成自私自利自肥的阶层，对社会稳定造成很大威胁。
我不是绝对反对华尔街。他们玩的那些公司上市，合并买卖，对于商业发展还是有所帮助的，但是他们玩的各种所谓金融衍生产品就基本是圈钱游戏了。这次前所未闻的大金融危机，在很大程度上，华尔街罪责难逃。
简而言之，股市是一个具有很强投机性质的场所。尤其短期操作，更是投机性，技巧性极强。而如果你把目标放远，给你所选定的公司一些时间努力，而且公司努力也有结果的话，则你是在投资。耐心是投资中的一个重要因素。投资应该属长期行为，你的判断也要言之有物，言之有理。
最后套用邓爷常被人引用的那句名言：不管白猫黑猫，能捉老鼠就是好猫。同样，不管是投机还是投资，只要能够赚钱，就是硬道理。
jcx：股市是“零和游戏”，还是什么？
jcx：股市是“零和游戏”，还是什么？
http://bbs.creaders.net/life/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=505809
前些天读到一位自称“从事金融行业多年”的作者文章，“投机乎投资乎──闲谈
股市的特性”，觉得很有趣，并且意识到会引起争论。果不其然，有人批评文章作
者的观点 - “股市是一个零和游戏，Zero sum game ”，“股市是一个大鱼吃小鱼，
互相蒙的地方” - 是根本不懂股市，还自称从事过金融行业多年，云云。
这个问题曾经在笔者脑子里也考虑过。笔者当然是一个“小投资者”，最早也是被
投资公司，个人理财师“骗”进来的。你看，他们把数字，图表摆到你面前：过去
XX年，年通货膨胀 X%，股市年平均回报却是 XX%。再看其它投资手段，银行CD回报 X%，房地产也不过平均X%。不比不知道，一比“吓一跳”，才明白了这个“道理”：与其让自己闲钱放在低回报的地方，应该放到股市去。哪怕有一点风险也没有关系，因为自己“有的是时间”等待呀。当然，这一进去名堂就多了。比如，是只买 mutual fund，还是股票？买什么样的mutual fund， 什么样的股票，甚至做短做长，等等，等等。是赔是赚就不好说 - 反之和股市是“零和游戏”还是什么没有关系了 - 是自己的“X游戏”。
这是不是说，“股市是不是零和游戏”就没有答案了，或者不必去管了？如果不是，
那么股市到底是什么“游戏”？
为了回答这个问题，我们把这个“股市”限制到历史悠久，又是世界最成熟的美
国市场来。它的代表当然是道琼斯和SP500指数。不管是这30种股票，还是500家公
司任何一家，它们个个都是“大鳄”，800磅大猩猩。它们的总和当然能够代表“美
国经济”。
那么，这个道琼斯或SP500是个什么“游戏” - 零和，正和，还是负和？
有人一定会说这很容易查到： 设定一个时间段，查道琼斯指数平均值(或SP500)就
行了。这种图表现在到处都是。
但是，真的那么容易吗？为什么说是被“骗进来”的，骗你的地方就在这里！
比如，我们说股市“在过去X年，年平均回报率10%”是什么意思？这显然是一种算
术平均。设想一下：$1000，投资SP500。前年回报100%，变成$2000。去年下跌50%，是不是这两年平均回报率是(100-50)/2 = 25%？显然不是。应该是0%，跌回到$1000了。原因是计算上涨和下跌百分比时用的“分母”不一样 - 所以你就不能将它们做简单的平均计算。那么应该用什么？应该用一种称之为几何平均年回报率，"annualized return", 或者称为 "CAGR"的(Compound Annual Growth Rate)。不幸的是：CARG总是小于简单算术平均。
美国SP500指数从1950年到2007年的简单年平均回报率是：8.66%，CAGR是7.47%。再考虑到这几年股市大跌，从2007年底大约1500点到今天约1000点(都是大约数，请不要苛求“精确”)，又下跌了30%以上，肯定就比7%小得多了。是不是仍然比通货膨胀高？估计很可能还是。是不是比银行CD(或者美国国债)高 - 笔者一时不清楚，但是真正怀疑这点。
你看，拿了60年的记录，却得到了和当初被“骗进来”时被告知的“事实”完全不
同的情况？原因？这里我们至少忽略了三个重要问题：
(1) 许多人误以为SP500包含的500只股票或者DJ30种股票是固定的。其实是大错。它们经常在变：不好的公司，或者被人买去的公司，甚至破产的公司被移走，
新的，“蒸蒸向上”的公司被加进来。用道琼斯30种股票为例，在过去114年被改变
了48次，SP500变得就更多。像最初道琼斯中的“美国棉花油公司”，“美国糖业公
司”，什么的，你还听说吗？再像现在 DJ 中的 IBM，Cisco，英特尔，Wal-Mart，
等等以及SP500中的微软，等更多的新公司，才创立了几年？这就像我们用一把尺子去量股市的“长度”，但是这把尺子自己却在不断“变新”。用它去“量”股市，
能给我们什么信息？
(2) 如果“小投资者”也要跟着去变，或者说购买“SP500成分股”。那么，它买过
来，卖过去，不要费用？它不要管理费？帮你白干 - 他的巨额工资，奖金从哪里来？
(3) 原则上说，道琼斯或者SP500都是“代表美国经济”的公司。或者说，只要“美
国经济”向上，这些指数就会“上涨”。笔者不去追究这个说法什么意思。主张股
市是“正和游戏”的人是不是认为美国经济会永远“扩张”下去？从经济角度，好
像“最终”总会这样。但是，就股市来说就不一定。看看日本股市几十年来的表现，
你敢说美国股市会永远是“正和游戏”？
股市到底是“零和游戏”，还是别什么，其实对投资者不是关系很大的事情，就像
在大牛市中一样有赔钱(甚至赔得还厉害)，大熊市中一样有赚钱的人一样，股市是
零和还是什么“和”和投资者的回报没有必然联系。再说我们根本无法定义以及测
出它到底是什么“和”？你是一个投资者，大气候当然重要，但是你毕竟只做你的
投资，不是做“整个股市”。别人赚钱不能保证你也赚，同样，别人赔钱也不会一
定带着你也赔。或者说，是“什么和”，只有对具体投资者才能算得出来。但是，
这又是在实现了“赚或赔”之后才能知道，那么，我们讨论它有什么意义？当然，
有一点意义：如果是“零和”，那么总体来说，“赚钱”的赚的就是“丢钱”人的钱。不要忘记：帮你投资的人(公司)总是赚钱的 - 不任你是赚还是赔！所以，是不是“零和”大概还要把各种手续费扣去。如果把这次金融危机算上，往前推30年，扣除费用，笔者估及和“零和”也差得不远。就像小布什的财长，大投资公司高盛的前CEO保尔森，在自传中就说他个人钱不买股票。
今天有一点是明显的：过去年来美国靠着金融大发财的情况已经一去不复返了。也
就是说今后当你听到有人告诉你股市是一个非常大的“正和”的赚钱地方，不要相
信他！“仍然可以赚钱/赔钱” - 肯定。
话说到这里，照理说就应该大大减少自己的“投资”才是 - 把钱取出来。但是又有
点“舍不得” - 因为“机会”总是存在。这就是股市的“赌场”特性造成 - 哈哈。
世上许多事情如果你不仔细想一下，只是人云亦云，有可能就是跟着别人说胡话而已。
(揭草仙)
不要以为我是看到现在股市跌才写这篇文章的 - jcx 08/25/10 (14)
http://bbs.creaders.net/life/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=505809
前些天读到一位自称“从事金融行业多年”的作者文章，“投机乎投资乎──闲谈
股市的特性”，觉得很有趣，并且意识到会引起争论。果不其然，有人批评文章作
者的观点 - “股市是一个零和游戏，Zero sum game ”，“股市是一个大鱼吃小鱼，
互相蒙的地方” - 是根本不懂股市，还自称从事过金融行业多年，云云。
这个问题曾经在笔者脑子里也考虑过。笔者当然是一个“小投资者”，最早也是被
投资公司，个人理财师“骗”进来的。你看，他们把数字，图表摆到你面前：过去
XX年，年通货膨胀 X%，股市年平均回报却是 XX%。再看其它投资手段，银行CD回报 X%，房地产也不过平均X%。不比不知道，一比“吓一跳”，才明白了这个“道理”：与其让自己闲钱放在低回报的地方，应该放到股市去。哪怕有一点风险也没有关系，因为自己“有的是时间”等待呀。当然，这一进去名堂就多了。比如，是只买 mutual fund，还是股票？买什么样的mutual fund， 什么样的股票，甚至做短做长，等等，等等。是赔是赚就不好说 - 反之和股市是“零和游戏”还是什么没有关系了 - 是自己的“X游戏”。
这是不是说，“股市是不是零和游戏”就没有答案了，或者不必去管了？如果不是，
那么股市到底是什么“游戏”？
为了回答这个问题，我们把这个“股市”限制到历史悠久，又是世界最成熟的美
国市场来。它的代表当然是道琼斯和SP500指数。不管是这30种股票，还是500家公
司任何一家，它们个个都是“大鳄”，800磅大猩猩。它们的总和当然能够代表“美
国经济”。
那么，这个道琼斯或SP500是个什么“游戏” - 零和，正和，还是负和？
有人一定会说这很容易查到： 设定一个时间段，查道琼斯指数平均值(或SP500)就
行了。这种图表现在到处都是。
但是，真的那么容易吗？为什么说是被“骗进来”的，骗你的地方就在这里！
比如，我们说股市“在过去X年，年平均回报率10%”是什么意思？这显然是一种算
术平均。设想一下：$1000，投资SP500。前年回报100%，变成$2000。去年下跌50%，是不是这两年平均回报率是(100-50)/2 = 25%？显然不是。应该是0%，跌回到$1000了。原因是计算上涨和下跌百分比时用的“分母”不一样 - 所以你就不能将它们做简单的平均计算。那么应该用什么？应该用一种称之为几何平均年回报率，"annualized return", 或者称为 "CAGR"的(Compound Annual Growth Rate)。不幸的是：CARG总是小于简单算术平均。
美国SP500指数从1950年到2007年的简单年平均回报率是：8.66%，CAGR是7.47%。再考虑到这几年股市大跌，从2007年底大约1500点到今天约1000点(都是大约数，请不要苛求“精确”)，又下跌了30%以上，肯定就比7%小得多了。是不是仍然比通货膨胀高？估计很可能还是。是不是比银行CD(或者美国国债)高 - 笔者一时不清楚，但是真正怀疑这点。
你看，拿了60年的记录，却得到了和当初被“骗进来”时被告知的“事实”完全不
同的情况？原因？这里我们至少忽略了三个重要问题：
(1) 许多人误以为SP500包含的500只股票或者DJ30种股票是固定的。其实是大错。它们经常在变：不好的公司，或者被人买去的公司，甚至破产的公司被移走，
新的，“蒸蒸向上”的公司被加进来。用道琼斯30种股票为例，在过去114年被改变
了48次，SP500变得就更多。像最初道琼斯中的“美国棉花油公司”，“美国糖业公
司”，什么的，你还听说吗？再像现在 DJ 中的 IBM，Cisco，英特尔，Wal-Mart，
等等以及SP500中的微软，等更多的新公司，才创立了几年？这就像我们用一把尺子去量股市的“长度”，但是这把尺子自己却在不断“变新”。用它去“量”股市，
能给我们什么信息？
(2) 如果“小投资者”也要跟着去变，或者说购买“SP500成分股”。那么，它买过
来，卖过去，不要费用？它不要管理费？帮你白干 - 他的巨额工资，奖金从哪里来？
(3) 原则上说，道琼斯或者SP500都是“代表美国经济”的公司。或者说，只要“美
国经济”向上，这些指数就会“上涨”。笔者不去追究这个说法什么意思。主张股
市是“正和游戏”的人是不是认为美国经济会永远“扩张”下去？从经济角度，好
像“最终”总会这样。但是，就股市来说就不一定。看看日本股市几十年来的表现，
你敢说美国股市会永远是“正和游戏”？
股市到底是“零和游戏”，还是别什么，其实对投资者不是关系很大的事情，就像
在大牛市中一样有赔钱(甚至赔得还厉害)，大熊市中一样有赚钱的人一样，股市是
零和还是什么“和”和投资者的回报没有必然联系。再说我们根本无法定义以及测
出它到底是什么“和”？你是一个投资者，大气候当然重要，但是你毕竟只做你的
投资，不是做“整个股市”。别人赚钱不能保证你也赚，同样，别人赔钱也不会一
定带着你也赔。或者说，是“什么和”，只有对具体投资者才能算得出来。但是，
这又是在实现了“赚或赔”之后才能知道，那么，我们讨论它有什么意义？当然，
有一点意义：如果是“零和”，那么总体来说，“赚钱”的赚的就是“丢钱”人的钱。不要忘记：帮你投资的人(公司)总是赚钱的 - 不任你是赚还是赔！所以，是不是“零和”大概还要把各种手续费扣去。如果把这次金融危机算上，往前推30年，扣除费用，笔者估及和“零和”也差得不远。就像小布什的财长，大投资公司高盛的前CEO保尔森，在自传中就说他个人钱不买股票。
今天有一点是明显的：过去年来美国靠着金融大发财的情况已经一去不复返了。也
就是说今后当你听到有人告诉你股市是一个非常大的“正和”的赚钱地方，不要相
信他！“仍然可以赚钱/赔钱” - 肯定。
话说到这里，照理说就应该大大减少自己的“投资”才是 - 把钱取出来。但是又有
点“舍不得” - 因为“机会”总是存在。这就是股市的“赌场”特性造成 - 哈哈。
世上许多事情如果你不仔细想一下，只是人云亦云，有可能就是跟着别人说胡话而已。
(揭草仙)
不要以为我是看到现在股市跌才写这篇文章的 - jcx 08/25/10 (14)
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
13 Things An Identity Thief Won't Tell You.
13 Things An Identity Thief Won't Tell You.
user
by Reader's Digest Magazine, on Thu Aug 12, 2010 7:51am PDT281 CommentsPost a CommentRead More from This Author »Report Abuse..Interviews by Michelle Crouch
Former identity thieves confess the tactics they use to scam you.
1. Watch your back. In line at the grocery store, I’ll hold my phone like I’m looking at the screen and snap your card as you’re using it. Next thing you know, I’m ordering things online—on your dime.
2. That red flag tells the mail carrier—and me—that you have outgoing mail. And that can mean credit card numbers and checks I can reproduce.
3. Check your bank and credit card balances at least once a week. I can do a lot of damage in the 30 days between statements.
© Comstock/Thinkstock
PLUS: 10 Ways to Protect Yourself Online
4. In Europe, credit cards have an embedded chip and require a PIN, which makes them a lot harder to hack. Here, I can duplicate the magnetic stripe technology with a $50 machine.
5. If a bill doesn’t show up when it’s supposed to, don’t breathe a sigh of relief. Start to wonder if your mail has been stolen.
6. That’s me driving through your neighborhood at 3 a.m. on trash day. I fill my trunk with bags of garbage from different houses, then sort later.
7. You throw away the darnedest things—preapproved credit card applications, old bills, expired credit cards, checking account deposit slips, and crumpled-up job or loan applications with all your personal information.
8. If you see something that looks like it doesn’t belong on the ATM or sticks out from the card slot, walk away. That’s the skimmer I attached to capture your card information and PIN.
9. Why don’t more of you call 888-5-OPTOUT to stop banks from sending you preapproved credit offers? You’re making it way too easy for me.
PLUS: 13 Things Your Financial Adviser Won't Tell You
10. I use your credit cards all the time, and I never get asked for ID. A helpful hint: I’d never use a credit card with a picture on it.
11. I can call the electric company, pose as you, and say, “Hey, I thought I paid this bill. I can’t remember—did I use my Visa or MasterCard? Can you read me back that number?” I have to be in character, but it’s unbelievable what they’ll tell me.
12. Thanks for using your debit card instead of your credit card. Hackers are constantly breaking into retail databases, and debit cards give me direct access to your banking account.
13. Love that new credit card that showed up in your mailbox. If I can’t talk someone at your bank into activating it (and I usually can), I write down the number and put it back. After you’ve activated the card, I start using it.
PLUS: 13 More Things An Identity Thief Won't Tell You
Sources: Former identity thieves in Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, Virginia, and New York.
user
by Reader's Digest Magazine, on Thu Aug 12, 2010 7:51am PDT281 CommentsPost a CommentRead More from This Author »Report Abuse..Interviews by Michelle Crouch
Former identity thieves confess the tactics they use to scam you.
1. Watch your back. In line at the grocery store, I’ll hold my phone like I’m looking at the screen and snap your card as you’re using it. Next thing you know, I’m ordering things online—on your dime.
2. That red flag tells the mail carrier—and me—that you have outgoing mail. And that can mean credit card numbers and checks I can reproduce.
3. Check your bank and credit card balances at least once a week. I can do a lot of damage in the 30 days between statements.
© Comstock/Thinkstock
PLUS: 10 Ways to Protect Yourself Online
4. In Europe, credit cards have an embedded chip and require a PIN, which makes them a lot harder to hack. Here, I can duplicate the magnetic stripe technology with a $50 machine.
5. If a bill doesn’t show up when it’s supposed to, don’t breathe a sigh of relief. Start to wonder if your mail has been stolen.
6. That’s me driving through your neighborhood at 3 a.m. on trash day. I fill my trunk with bags of garbage from different houses, then sort later.
7. You throw away the darnedest things—preapproved credit card applications, old bills, expired credit cards, checking account deposit slips, and crumpled-up job or loan applications with all your personal information.
8. If you see something that looks like it doesn’t belong on the ATM or sticks out from the card slot, walk away. That’s the skimmer I attached to capture your card information and PIN.
9. Why don’t more of you call 888-5-OPTOUT to stop banks from sending you preapproved credit offers? You’re making it way too easy for me.
PLUS: 13 Things Your Financial Adviser Won't Tell You
10. I use your credit cards all the time, and I never get asked for ID. A helpful hint: I’d never use a credit card with a picture on it.
11. I can call the electric company, pose as you, and say, “Hey, I thought I paid this bill. I can’t remember—did I use my Visa or MasterCard? Can you read me back that number?” I have to be in character, but it’s unbelievable what they’ll tell me.
12. Thanks for using your debit card instead of your credit card. Hackers are constantly breaking into retail databases, and debit cards give me direct access to your banking account.
13. Love that new credit card that showed up in your mailbox. If I can’t talk someone at your bank into activating it (and I usually can), I write down the number and put it back. After you’ve activated the card, I start using it.
PLUS: 13 More Things An Identity Thief Won't Tell You
Sources: Former identity thieves in Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, Virginia, and New York.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
美国股市再次暴跌的十个迹象
美国股市再次暴跌的十个迹象
http://finance.creaders.net/newsViewer.php?nid=441475&id=1002037
万维读者网 2010-08-16 16:17:44
万维读者网记者唯一编译报道：The Wall Street Journal刊登的评论文章说，这个星期股市的表现不好，很多人怀疑华尔街会不会再次暴跌，评论人士说投资者不妨关注以下十个迹象：
1. 股价已经太贵了。根据耶鲁大学经济学教授Robert Shiller的研究，现在美国股价平均是未来业绩的20倍。这已经比以往高，正常情况下应该是16倍。对于投资者来讲价值是最重要的，如果你买的股票物有所值，那么承担高风险是值得的，否则为什么要买进呢？
2. 联邦储备表现紧张。这个星期联邦储备终于承认说美国经济发展开始减弱，为了对抗通货紧缩，联邦储备拿出了最后一个武器：卖出按揭买进政府债券。这个方法长期来讲会使利率下降，对于还按揭的人这是件好事，但是对于股市就不是好事。
3. 认为股市会升的人太多。根据National Association of Active Investment Managers的统计，多数投资经理认为股市会升。另外很多投资顾问也是这样认为。这是值得投资者小心的一种迹象，当人人都乐观的时候往往应该是退出股市的时候。
4. 通货紧缩已经存在了。消费价格连续三个月下降，而且已经影响到了人们的薪水。根据劳工部上个季度的统计，美国工人的小时工作比一年前降低了0.7%。难怪联邦储备现在紧张了，通货紧缩会导致人们薪水降低，企业收入减少，房价降低，投资也会缩水。与此同时债务却不会减少。这是一个非常可怕的恶性循环。
5. 人们欠债太多。无论普通家庭，企业，州政府，以及联邦政府，都欠大量的债务。美国现在的债务量是10年前的一倍。
6，就业市场比政府公布的数字还有差。官方的数字说美国失业率是9.5%，但是仔细看一下，现在美国20岁以上的成年人口中其实只有61%有工作。这是自80年代来最差的。如果只算男性的话，这个数字是66.9%，而在50年代时是85%。现在很多年龄大的人只能找到part-time工作，20岁以上的人真正有全职工作的只有59%，你能说这样的就业市场是好么？
7. 房地产市场仍然一团糟。上个月美国的法拍屋又增加了。根据统计，七月份银行收回93000间房子。比六月份升了9%。RealtyTrac说今年全年美国会有100万间法拍屋，这只能使房价更低。
8. 劳动节就要到了。根据历史统计，每年的九月股市表现最差。
9. 华盛顿不能正常运作。中期选举就要到了，预期主党在两院都会失去一些席位。在今天这样的社会局势中，美国需要强有力的领导人，但是至今没有出现。
10. 所有经济数字都不好。ISM显示美国制造业在七月减弱了，ISM新订单数字也在恶化。贸易差额增大，第二季度美国国民生产总值比第一季度差。欧洲六月的工业产出比预期要差，就连中国的经济发展都减缓了。
所以，投资者现在应该小心行事。
http://finance.creaders.net/newsViewer.php?nid=441475&id=1002037
万维读者网 2010-08-16 16:17:44
万维读者网记者唯一编译报道：The Wall Street Journal刊登的评论文章说，这个星期股市的表现不好，很多人怀疑华尔街会不会再次暴跌，评论人士说投资者不妨关注以下十个迹象：
1. 股价已经太贵了。根据耶鲁大学经济学教授Robert Shiller的研究，现在美国股价平均是未来业绩的20倍。这已经比以往高，正常情况下应该是16倍。对于投资者来讲价值是最重要的，如果你买的股票物有所值，那么承担高风险是值得的，否则为什么要买进呢？
2. 联邦储备表现紧张。这个星期联邦储备终于承认说美国经济发展开始减弱，为了对抗通货紧缩，联邦储备拿出了最后一个武器：卖出按揭买进政府债券。这个方法长期来讲会使利率下降，对于还按揭的人这是件好事，但是对于股市就不是好事。
3. 认为股市会升的人太多。根据National Association of Active Investment Managers的统计，多数投资经理认为股市会升。另外很多投资顾问也是这样认为。这是值得投资者小心的一种迹象，当人人都乐观的时候往往应该是退出股市的时候。
4. 通货紧缩已经存在了。消费价格连续三个月下降，而且已经影响到了人们的薪水。根据劳工部上个季度的统计，美国工人的小时工作比一年前降低了0.7%。难怪联邦储备现在紧张了，通货紧缩会导致人们薪水降低，企业收入减少，房价降低，投资也会缩水。与此同时债务却不会减少。这是一个非常可怕的恶性循环。
5. 人们欠债太多。无论普通家庭，企业，州政府，以及联邦政府，都欠大量的债务。美国现在的债务量是10年前的一倍。
6，就业市场比政府公布的数字还有差。官方的数字说美国失业率是9.5%，但是仔细看一下，现在美国20岁以上的成年人口中其实只有61%有工作。这是自80年代来最差的。如果只算男性的话，这个数字是66.9%，而在50年代时是85%。现在很多年龄大的人只能找到part-time工作，20岁以上的人真正有全职工作的只有59%，你能说这样的就业市场是好么？
7. 房地产市场仍然一团糟。上个月美国的法拍屋又增加了。根据统计，七月份银行收回93000间房子。比六月份升了9%。RealtyTrac说今年全年美国会有100万间法拍屋，这只能使房价更低。
8. 劳动节就要到了。根据历史统计，每年的九月股市表现最差。
9. 华盛顿不能正常运作。中期选举就要到了，预期主党在两院都会失去一些席位。在今天这样的社会局势中，美国需要强有力的领导人，但是至今没有出现。
10. 所有经济数字都不好。ISM显示美国制造业在七月减弱了，ISM新订单数字也在恶化。贸易差额增大，第二季度美国国民生产总值比第一季度差。欧洲六月的工业产出比预期要差，就连中国的经济发展都减缓了。
所以，投资者现在应该小心行事。
Sunday, August 15, 2010
7 Millionaire Myths
7 Millionaire Myths
by Claire Bradley
Sunday, August 15, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110333/millionaire-myths?mod=bb-budgeting
We all have are preconceptions about millionaires: they're tax evaders who just inherited their money from rich Aunt Flo, and they hang around the golf course all day with their snobby, elitist friends. So what's the average millionaire really like? Here are seven millionaire myths, and the real facts about the ones who seem to have it all.
1. Millionaires Don't Pay Their Taxes
Fact: It is estimated that millionaires, those in the top 1% of earners, pay about 40 percent of all taxes. Current tax regulation shifts may change these numbers to make this even larger than that -- so think twice before accusing the millionaires in America of not paying taxes.
2. Millionaires Just Inherited Their Money
According to Thomas J. Stanley's book, "The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy," only 20% of millionaires inherited their riches. The other 80% are what you'd call nouveau riche: first-generation millionaires who earned their cash on their own. Many millionaires simply worked, saved, and lived within their means to generate their wealth -- think accountants and managers: regular people going to work every day. Most millionaires didn't get their riches overnight when a rich relative died -- they worked for the money.
More from Investopedia:
• 6 Millionaire Traits That You Can Adopt
• 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
• 6 Biggest Millionaire Flops
3. Millionaires Feel Rich
From the outside looking in, you would think that millionaires feel rich and secure, but that's not so. Most millionaires worry about retirement, their kids' college fund and the mortgage just like the rest of us. Those worries are greatest among new millionaires, the people who just recently acquired their wealth.
[Click here to check savings products and rates in your area.]
4. Millionaires Have High-Paying Jobs
It certainly doesn't hurt to be gainfully employed, but half of all millionaires are self-employed or own a business. It does help to have a college degree, as about 80 percent are college graduates, though only 18% have master's degrees.
5. Millionaires All Drive Fancy Cars
You can get that idea of the rich guy in a fancy German car out of your head when you think of a millionaire: They actually drive a Ford, with the carmaker topping the millionaire preferred car list at 9.4 percent. Cadillacs run second on the millionaires' favorite car list, and Lincolns third according to onmoneymaking.com.
[See the Rare $100,000 Bill]
Car payments are an investment with little return, which is why someone looking to grow wealth avoids high-priced vehicles in favor of a more economical set of wheels.
6. Millionaires Hang Around the Golf Course All Day
Those millionaires are all retired, with nothing else to do but hang around the golf course, right? Wrong. Only 20 percent of millionaires are retirees, with a full 80 percent still going to work. It's not as glamorous or fun, but millionaires go to work just like you do; it's how the money gets in the bank.
7. Millionaires Are Elitists
We've already established that most millionaires earned their money and not inherited it, still go to work, drive a Ford, and worry about their kids' college expenses. Sounds a lot like the rest of America, right? Millionaires come in all shapes and sizes -- some may be elitists, but most are just regular Joes who successfully managed their money.
The Bottom Line
Maybe you see a pattern here: Today's millionaires are people who live within their means, budget and spend wisely, and focus on financial independence first. These are habits that take discipline, but ones we can all adopt to begin growing wealth. If these facts prove anything, it's that every one of us can strive to become a millionaire -- you can start by driving your old car with pride.
by Claire Bradley
Sunday, August 15, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110333/millionaire-myths?mod=bb-budgeting
We all have are preconceptions about millionaires: they're tax evaders who just inherited their money from rich Aunt Flo, and they hang around the golf course all day with their snobby, elitist friends. So what's the average millionaire really like? Here are seven millionaire myths, and the real facts about the ones who seem to have it all.
1. Millionaires Don't Pay Their Taxes
Fact: It is estimated that millionaires, those in the top 1% of earners, pay about 40 percent of all taxes. Current tax regulation shifts may change these numbers to make this even larger than that -- so think twice before accusing the millionaires in America of not paying taxes.
2. Millionaires Just Inherited Their Money
According to Thomas J. Stanley's book, "The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy," only 20% of millionaires inherited their riches. The other 80% are what you'd call nouveau riche: first-generation millionaires who earned their cash on their own. Many millionaires simply worked, saved, and lived within their means to generate their wealth -- think accountants and managers: regular people going to work every day. Most millionaires didn't get their riches overnight when a rich relative died -- they worked for the money.
More from Investopedia:
• 6 Millionaire Traits That You Can Adopt
• 10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire
• 6 Biggest Millionaire Flops
3. Millionaires Feel Rich
From the outside looking in, you would think that millionaires feel rich and secure, but that's not so. Most millionaires worry about retirement, their kids' college fund and the mortgage just like the rest of us. Those worries are greatest among new millionaires, the people who just recently acquired their wealth.
[Click here to check savings products and rates in your area.]
4. Millionaires Have High-Paying Jobs
It certainly doesn't hurt to be gainfully employed, but half of all millionaires are self-employed or own a business. It does help to have a college degree, as about 80 percent are college graduates, though only 18% have master's degrees.
5. Millionaires All Drive Fancy Cars
You can get that idea of the rich guy in a fancy German car out of your head when you think of a millionaire: They actually drive a Ford, with the carmaker topping the millionaire preferred car list at 9.4 percent. Cadillacs run second on the millionaires' favorite car list, and Lincolns third according to onmoneymaking.com.
[See the Rare $100,000 Bill]
Car payments are an investment with little return, which is why someone looking to grow wealth avoids high-priced vehicles in favor of a more economical set of wheels.
6. Millionaires Hang Around the Golf Course All Day
Those millionaires are all retired, with nothing else to do but hang around the golf course, right? Wrong. Only 20 percent of millionaires are retirees, with a full 80 percent still going to work. It's not as glamorous or fun, but millionaires go to work just like you do; it's how the money gets in the bank.
7. Millionaires Are Elitists
We've already established that most millionaires earned their money and not inherited it, still go to work, drive a Ford, and worry about their kids' college expenses. Sounds a lot like the rest of America, right? Millionaires come in all shapes and sizes -- some may be elitists, but most are just regular Joes who successfully managed their money.
The Bottom Line
Maybe you see a pattern here: Today's millionaires are people who live within their means, budget and spend wisely, and focus on financial independence first. These are habits that take discipline, but ones we can all adopt to begin growing wealth. If these facts prove anything, it's that every one of us can strive to become a millionaire -- you can start by driving your old car with pride.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
平凡往事：世上只有妈妈好
平凡往事：世上只有妈妈好
http://bbs.creaders.net/tea/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=501221&blog_id=66975
送交者: 平凡往事 2010年08月09日05:20:40 于 [茗香茶语] 发送悄悄话
小的时候，在我的记忆里，无论是在左邻右居还是生活在同一个里大院里的人们的嘴里，包括老人和孩子，母亲的口碑都是极佳的。我想这与母亲的勤劳，助人为乐和与人为善的为人处事方法有关。
母亲的勤劳是出了名的，每天在我们上床之前，她都要给我们兄妹三人洗的干干净净的。等我们都睡下了，她又一个人坐在小板凳上，开始洗我们刚刚脱下的脏衣服，一洗就是数年直到她下放到了农村，在我的记忆里从来就不知道她是什么时候休息的。有时我玩累了跑回家里，倒在床上就睡着了，母亲总是悄手悄脚的在我的身上盖上一件军大衣。
每天除了上班，只要回到家里母亲就像上了发条的钟摆一样从来没有停下来过。父亲从来不管家里的事，只是朝九晚五的忙他的工作，而且经常很晚才回家。母亲总是默默地操持着这个家，里里外外的忙个不停，而且一句怨言也没有。那怕家里的电灯炮坏了，也是母亲搭着登子上去把它换下来的。
我从小就很馋，时常会溜进厨房，趁着忙碌的母亲不注意时，偷偷的拿起什么放到嘴里就跑。有时即便给母亲看到了，她也会装着什么都没看见。我最爱吃鱼，当我闻到厨房里有做鱼的味道，就会像一只猫似的钻进厨房，等在正在忙碌的母亲身旁。这时母亲总是会在油锅里挑出一些已经熟了的东西出来，然后用嘴吹凉后放在我的手中。有时，她会挑出鱼籽先放到锅里炸好后，再蘸点盐给我吃。久而久之，我跟母亲学到了一手好厨艺。
由于贪玩，又整天在地上爬来爬去，所以我的漆盖上，总会磨出许多小洞。我怕挨训，脱下裤子后就故意把破的地方叠起来，但这总是逃不过母亲的眼睛，但她从来不说什么，只是等我们都上床睡觉了，才一个人坐在灯下不声不响的一针一线把它们逢补好。有时我会闭上眼睛，凭着想象在心里默默地数着她缝在裤子上的针线数，直到慢慢的睡着。有时我看到母亲认不上针，就会从被窝里爬出来，接过母亲手里的顶针套在自己的手上，为她把线穿好。每到此刻，母亲都会说，好儿子，然后再在我的小脸蛋上亲一下，这时我会觉得自己长大了。
当我在外面受到委屈时，只要在母亲身边呆上一和儿，就会不知不觉的把一肚子的烦恼抛到九霄云外去。有时由于过度兴奋或紧张，我会睡不着觉。于是我就跑到父母的床上，挨着母亲躺下来。她总是一声不响地把被子给我盖盖好，然后轻轻的用手拍打着我的身子，慢慢地我就会平静下来，进入甜美的梦乡。记得考大学的三个晚上，我都是这样在父母的床上度过的。
有一次我看到母亲在她的房子里偷偷的抹眼泪，当时我不知道发生了什么事，也不敢多问，因为在此之前我从没有见她哭过，是谁欺负母亲了呢? 对此我一直耿耿于怀。文革后当我再次问起母亲那件事时，她才红着眼睛，幽幽地对我说你姥爷走了。这时我才恍然大悟，由于姥爷在解放后被定为地主成份，所以当时母亲只能一个人躲起来自己消化她的全部悲痛，否则如果让别人看见了，又不知道什么样的灾祸又会落到我们全家人的头上。
每当我在外面惹了祸，人家都会找上门来告状，母亲总是耐心的听人家把话说完，还不厌其烦地陪着不是。等人家消了气离开后，她就会用一个小扫把之类的东西打我的屁股。但我从来都不怕她，因为她打我时都带着爱。而不像父亲会打的我痛上好几天，有时甚至会痛上一周。所以我做错事后，宁愿挨母亲打一顿，也不愿让父亲知道。
在母亲所作所为的潜移默化应响下，我从小就养成顾家的习惯。当我长大一点时，就主动帮她干一些力所能及的家务。哥哥比较懒，妹妹又小。所以当时家里家外的活都是我和母亲干的，如养鸡，种菜，挖地窖，积酸菜。。。。。
遇上家里改善生活，母亲就会尽可能的让我们先吃，而她总是在一旁默默地看着我们。有时我会说，"妈，你也吃呀"。她总是会说她不爱吃之类的话。那时由于不懂事，加上嘴馋贪吃，所以就从来没有怀疑过她的话。母亲做馅饼的手艺远近闻名，不管亲朋好友，远亲近邻，只要是到我家做客，母亲总会一张一张的在油烟中尽心尽力的烙到人们肚里再也没有一点位子为止。
每次回国探亲前，我都反复对自己说，这次回去一定抽时间好好陪陪母亲，即使光说说话也好。但每次回到国内，我总是出去和朋友们在一起聊天叙旧，每天几乎都是半夜两三点钟才喝的醉酗酗地回到家中，而年近八十岁的老母，总是一个人和衣坐在我房间的沙发里，默默地等着我回来，然后一句怨言也没有的悄然离去，并且从来没有责备过我一次。如果我因忙碌而忘了打电话回家，哪怕只有一天，她都会打越洋电话来美国询问我的状况，然后再千叮咛万嘱咐我一番。
现在每当家里的电话玲响起来，父亲总会对母亲说，又是你的电话。的确，无论外人或者家里人，不管大事小情，一直以来都是由母亲一人处理的。有时父亲会抱怨，三个孩子在电话中就没有一个是找我的，开口就叫妈，好像这个家里就没有我这个人似的。为此母亲没少在电话里小声嘱咐我们，下次再来电话时要先问父亲好。有时我们谈完话，母亲会命令般的说，跟你爸说两句，就不容纷说的把电话递到父亲手中。
父亲应该理解，我们是母亲一手带大的，亲疏远近是根深地固置根与心中的不变情结，有时更是一种下意识，有些东西是没有道理可讲的，也不能凭一个孝字就能改变得了。即使现在我们都长大成人并有了自己的孩子，但母亲在我们的心里永远是一座山一片天，也是我们灵魂上的一块干净安全的栖息地。
母亲从来没有和父亲红过脸，甚至有些逆来顺受。在她的眼里父亲是她的天，但在我们三个孩子的眼中母亲才是我们家的天，而且母亲在我们的心里永远都是世界上最美最美的人。
题外话，我们在要求别人为我们做什么的时候，是否想过我们为别人做了什么，我做的不好，惭愧万分！
http://bbs.creaders.net/tea/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=501221&blog_id=66975
送交者: 平凡往事 2010年08月09日05:20:40 于 [茗香茶语] 发送悄悄话
小的时候，在我的记忆里，无论是在左邻右居还是生活在同一个里大院里的人们的嘴里，包括老人和孩子，母亲的口碑都是极佳的。我想这与母亲的勤劳，助人为乐和与人为善的为人处事方法有关。
母亲的勤劳是出了名的，每天在我们上床之前，她都要给我们兄妹三人洗的干干净净的。等我们都睡下了，她又一个人坐在小板凳上，开始洗我们刚刚脱下的脏衣服，一洗就是数年直到她下放到了农村，在我的记忆里从来就不知道她是什么时候休息的。有时我玩累了跑回家里，倒在床上就睡着了，母亲总是悄手悄脚的在我的身上盖上一件军大衣。
每天除了上班，只要回到家里母亲就像上了发条的钟摆一样从来没有停下来过。父亲从来不管家里的事，只是朝九晚五的忙他的工作，而且经常很晚才回家。母亲总是默默地操持着这个家，里里外外的忙个不停，而且一句怨言也没有。那怕家里的电灯炮坏了，也是母亲搭着登子上去把它换下来的。
我从小就很馋，时常会溜进厨房，趁着忙碌的母亲不注意时，偷偷的拿起什么放到嘴里就跑。有时即便给母亲看到了，她也会装着什么都没看见。我最爱吃鱼，当我闻到厨房里有做鱼的味道，就会像一只猫似的钻进厨房，等在正在忙碌的母亲身旁。这时母亲总是会在油锅里挑出一些已经熟了的东西出来，然后用嘴吹凉后放在我的手中。有时，她会挑出鱼籽先放到锅里炸好后，再蘸点盐给我吃。久而久之，我跟母亲学到了一手好厨艺。
由于贪玩，又整天在地上爬来爬去，所以我的漆盖上，总会磨出许多小洞。我怕挨训，脱下裤子后就故意把破的地方叠起来，但这总是逃不过母亲的眼睛，但她从来不说什么，只是等我们都上床睡觉了，才一个人坐在灯下不声不响的一针一线把它们逢补好。有时我会闭上眼睛，凭着想象在心里默默地数着她缝在裤子上的针线数，直到慢慢的睡着。有时我看到母亲认不上针，就会从被窝里爬出来，接过母亲手里的顶针套在自己的手上，为她把线穿好。每到此刻，母亲都会说，好儿子，然后再在我的小脸蛋上亲一下，这时我会觉得自己长大了。
当我在外面受到委屈时，只要在母亲身边呆上一和儿，就会不知不觉的把一肚子的烦恼抛到九霄云外去。有时由于过度兴奋或紧张，我会睡不着觉。于是我就跑到父母的床上，挨着母亲躺下来。她总是一声不响地把被子给我盖盖好，然后轻轻的用手拍打着我的身子，慢慢地我就会平静下来，进入甜美的梦乡。记得考大学的三个晚上，我都是这样在父母的床上度过的。
有一次我看到母亲在她的房子里偷偷的抹眼泪，当时我不知道发生了什么事，也不敢多问，因为在此之前我从没有见她哭过，是谁欺负母亲了呢? 对此我一直耿耿于怀。文革后当我再次问起母亲那件事时，她才红着眼睛，幽幽地对我说你姥爷走了。这时我才恍然大悟，由于姥爷在解放后被定为地主成份，所以当时母亲只能一个人躲起来自己消化她的全部悲痛，否则如果让别人看见了，又不知道什么样的灾祸又会落到我们全家人的头上。
每当我在外面惹了祸，人家都会找上门来告状，母亲总是耐心的听人家把话说完，还不厌其烦地陪着不是。等人家消了气离开后，她就会用一个小扫把之类的东西打我的屁股。但我从来都不怕她，因为她打我时都带着爱。而不像父亲会打的我痛上好几天，有时甚至会痛上一周。所以我做错事后，宁愿挨母亲打一顿，也不愿让父亲知道。
在母亲所作所为的潜移默化应响下，我从小就养成顾家的习惯。当我长大一点时，就主动帮她干一些力所能及的家务。哥哥比较懒，妹妹又小。所以当时家里家外的活都是我和母亲干的，如养鸡，种菜，挖地窖，积酸菜。。。。。
遇上家里改善生活，母亲就会尽可能的让我们先吃，而她总是在一旁默默地看着我们。有时我会说，"妈，你也吃呀"。她总是会说她不爱吃之类的话。那时由于不懂事，加上嘴馋贪吃，所以就从来没有怀疑过她的话。母亲做馅饼的手艺远近闻名，不管亲朋好友，远亲近邻，只要是到我家做客，母亲总会一张一张的在油烟中尽心尽力的烙到人们肚里再也没有一点位子为止。
每次回国探亲前，我都反复对自己说，这次回去一定抽时间好好陪陪母亲，即使光说说话也好。但每次回到国内，我总是出去和朋友们在一起聊天叙旧，每天几乎都是半夜两三点钟才喝的醉酗酗地回到家中，而年近八十岁的老母，总是一个人和衣坐在我房间的沙发里，默默地等着我回来，然后一句怨言也没有的悄然离去，并且从来没有责备过我一次。如果我因忙碌而忘了打电话回家，哪怕只有一天，她都会打越洋电话来美国询问我的状况，然后再千叮咛万嘱咐我一番。
现在每当家里的电话玲响起来，父亲总会对母亲说，又是你的电话。的确，无论外人或者家里人，不管大事小情，一直以来都是由母亲一人处理的。有时父亲会抱怨，三个孩子在电话中就没有一个是找我的，开口就叫妈，好像这个家里就没有我这个人似的。为此母亲没少在电话里小声嘱咐我们，下次再来电话时要先问父亲好。有时我们谈完话，母亲会命令般的说，跟你爸说两句，就不容纷说的把电话递到父亲手中。
父亲应该理解，我们是母亲一手带大的，亲疏远近是根深地固置根与心中的不变情结，有时更是一种下意识，有些东西是没有道理可讲的，也不能凭一个孝字就能改变得了。即使现在我们都长大成人并有了自己的孩子，但母亲在我们的心里永远是一座山一片天，也是我们灵魂上的一块干净安全的栖息地。
母亲从来没有和父亲红过脸，甚至有些逆来顺受。在她的眼里父亲是她的天，但在我们三个孩子的眼中母亲才是我们家的天，而且母亲在我们的心里永远都是世界上最美最美的人。
题外话，我们在要求别人为我们做什么的时候，是否想过我们为别人做了什么，我做的不好，惭愧万分！
Monday, August 9, 2010
U.S. Economy Is Increasingly Tied to the Rich
U.S. Economy Is Increasingly Tied to the Rich
by Robert Frank
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Who cares how the rich spend their money?
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/110258/us-economy-is-increasingly-tied-to-the-rich
Well, perhaps everyone should these days. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in the nation. And spending by the rich now accounts for the largest share of consumer outlays in at least 20 years.
According to new research from Moody's Analytics, the top 5% of Americans by income account for 37% of all consumer outlays. Outlays include consumer spending, interest payments on installment debt and transfer payments.
[See Ways to Save on Restaurants, Travel, and More]
By contrast, the bottom 80% by income account for 39.5% of all consumer outlays.
It is no surprise, of course, that the rich spend so much, since they earn a disproportionate share of income. According to economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty, the top 10% of earners captured about half of all income as of 2007.
What is surprising is just how much or our consumer economy is now dependent on the rich, and how that share has increased as the U.S. emerges from recession. In the third quarter of 1990, the top 5% accounted for 25% of consumer outlays. That held relatively steady until the mid-1990s, when it started inching up past 30%. It dipped in 2003 and again in 2008, but started surging in 2009 amid the greatest bull market rally in history, with the Dow Jones Industry Average rising nearly 50% in the last nine months of the year.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, cites two main reasons for the increase. First, the wealthy panicked during the financial crisis and stopped spending. When markets rebounded, they came out of their shells and started spending again. "I think that pent-up demand was unleashed," he said. "It was an unusually high rate of spending."
[See 21 Things You Should Never Buy New ]
The second reason is that those people in the middle- and lower-income groups are struggling to pay off debt and stay afloat amid rising unemployment, as Friday's data reminds us. That has crimped their spending.
The data may be a further sign that the U.S. is becoming a Plutonomy–an economy dependent on the spending and investing of the wealthy. And Plutonomies are far less stable than economies built on more evenly distributed income and mass consumption. "I don't think it's healthy for the economy to be so dependent on the top 2% of the income distribution," Mr. Zandi said. He added that, "In the near term it highlights the fragility of the recovery."
In fact, the recent spending of the wealthy may be unsustainable. Their savings rate has gone from more than 26% in 2008 to a negative 7% in the first quarter of 2010, according to the Moody's Analytics data. They still have lots of savings. But the massive draw on that in the past two years is unlikely to continue at the same pace.
"I think we're already seeing a slowdown in spending by this group," Mr. Zandi says.
And that should be a worry for all of us.
by Robert Frank
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Who cares how the rich spend their money?
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/110258/us-economy-is-increasingly-tied-to-the-rich
Well, perhaps everyone should these days. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in the nation. And spending by the rich now accounts for the largest share of consumer outlays in at least 20 years.
According to new research from Moody's Analytics, the top 5% of Americans by income account for 37% of all consumer outlays. Outlays include consumer spending, interest payments on installment debt and transfer payments.
[See Ways to Save on Restaurants, Travel, and More]
By contrast, the bottom 80% by income account for 39.5% of all consumer outlays.
It is no surprise, of course, that the rich spend so much, since they earn a disproportionate share of income. According to economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty, the top 10% of earners captured about half of all income as of 2007.
What is surprising is just how much or our consumer economy is now dependent on the rich, and how that share has increased as the U.S. emerges from recession. In the third quarter of 1990, the top 5% accounted for 25% of consumer outlays. That held relatively steady until the mid-1990s, when it started inching up past 30%. It dipped in 2003 and again in 2008, but started surging in 2009 amid the greatest bull market rally in history, with the Dow Jones Industry Average rising nearly 50% in the last nine months of the year.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, cites two main reasons for the increase. First, the wealthy panicked during the financial crisis and stopped spending. When markets rebounded, they came out of their shells and started spending again. "I think that pent-up demand was unleashed," he said. "It was an unusually high rate of spending."
[See 21 Things You Should Never Buy New ]
The second reason is that those people in the middle- and lower-income groups are struggling to pay off debt and stay afloat amid rising unemployment, as Friday's data reminds us. That has crimped their spending.
The data may be a further sign that the U.S. is becoming a Plutonomy–an economy dependent on the spending and investing of the wealthy. And Plutonomies are far less stable than economies built on more evenly distributed income and mass consumption. "I don't think it's healthy for the economy to be so dependent on the top 2% of the income distribution," Mr. Zandi said. He added that, "In the near term it highlights the fragility of the recovery."
In fact, the recent spending of the wealthy may be unsustainable. Their savings rate has gone from more than 26% in 2008 to a negative 7% in the first quarter of 2010, according to the Moody's Analytics data. They still have lots of savings. But the massive draw on that in the past two years is unlikely to continue at the same pace.
"I think we're already seeing a slowdown in spending by this group," Mr. Zandi says.
And that should be a worry for all of us.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
The Best Time To Buy A Used Car
The Best Time To Buy A Used Car
http://www.financeforfamilies.com/best-time-to-buy-a-used-car.html
Many ask what is the best time to buy a used car? The answer is actually a trick. Since our site is trying to help you get out of and stay out of debt, the best time to buy a used car is when you have enough to pay for it without getting loan.
On this page we will show you how to buy a used car without going into debt. On the new car page we explained the reasoning behind not financing vehicles and not buying new cars. The alternative way to purchase cars takes discipline and is actually the best time to buy a used car.
We will assume that you wanted to buy the 2005 Honda Accord that was used as an example on the new car page. Remember that the payment for this car was going to be $341.85 per month for 6 years. The car would be paid off in the year 2011.
Since you had decided that you could afford the $341.85 payment to the finance company, then we know that you can afford to pay yourself $341.85 into a savings account.
We round off this savings and do not account for any interest and assume that you save $4,000 each year. We will also assume that you can drive your current jalopy for one more year while you save this money.
January 2006 you now have $4,000 saved and can afford to buy a 1992 Honda Accord. You have now reached the best time to buy a used car.
January 2007 you can sell the 1992 for $1,400, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 1995 Honda Accord.
January 2008 you can sell the 1995 for $2,000, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 1997 Honda Accord.
January 2009 you can sell the 1997 for $2,300, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 1999 Honda Accord.
January 2010 you can sell the 1999 for $2,600, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 2000 Honda Accord.
In January 2011 you have reached the value of used car purchases where selling the 2000 and adding $4,000 to it will not substantially upgrade your car, so you continue to save.
January 2012 you can sell the 2000 for $2,400, add $8,000 (two years of savings) to it and buy a 2006 Honda Accord.
Now we can compare the two decisions. If you had bought the new 2005 you would have a paid off 2005 in 2011 and you would have paid interest ($3,623.40 to be exact) on top of the purchase price. Using our example you could have had a 2006 one year later in 2012 completely paid off and your money made interest for you while in your savings account.
These numbers are all conservative and you could do much better by continuing to save and delay your used car purchases longer than one year. This would be the best thing to do so that you do not keep losing value on selling cars.
For example, if you kept saving and bought a used car every two years you could have bought a 2008 Honda Accord in 2012 completely paid for. When you stretch out your used car purchases while continuing to save, you can purchase much newer vehicles. With this method you can always purchase newer used cars and never pay interest to anyone.
The key to making this work is the disciplined savings. If you have decided that you can make a new car payment, you can put the money in a savings account earmarked for used cars.
Also remember that since you do not have a car payment, if you have a financial problem like a job layoff etc., you will not have to worry about losing your vehicle. Driving paid for used cars is a wise financial practice. It is said that it is the millionaires that purchase and drive used cars. It is those in deep debt that drive new and leased vehicles.
As you have seen here the best time to buy a used car isn't necessarily dependent on actual time but it depends on when you are financially ready.
Our last few vehicle purchases have also taught us that the end of the month may be the best time to buy a used car once you have the money. They seem to give better deals at this time but never before you can pay for it full in cash.
The prices for these vehicles all came from Kelley Blue Book. The purchase prices are just under the KBB retail value and the selling prices are just over the private party value. The values that I used were conservative and you could do much better, especially if you hold onto your vehicles longer while continuing to save.
I use the Honda Accord as the example but this could be done with any vehicle.
http://www.financeforfamilies.com/best-time-to-buy-a-used-car.html
Many ask what is the best time to buy a used car? The answer is actually a trick. Since our site is trying to help you get out of and stay out of debt, the best time to buy a used car is when you have enough to pay for it without getting loan.
On this page we will show you how to buy a used car without going into debt. On the new car page we explained the reasoning behind not financing vehicles and not buying new cars. The alternative way to purchase cars takes discipline and is actually the best time to buy a used car.
We will assume that you wanted to buy the 2005 Honda Accord that was used as an example on the new car page. Remember that the payment for this car was going to be $341.85 per month for 6 years. The car would be paid off in the year 2011.
Since you had decided that you could afford the $341.85 payment to the finance company, then we know that you can afford to pay yourself $341.85 into a savings account.
We round off this savings and do not account for any interest and assume that you save $4,000 each year. We will also assume that you can drive your current jalopy for one more year while you save this money.
January 2006 you now have $4,000 saved and can afford to buy a 1992 Honda Accord. You have now reached the best time to buy a used car.
January 2007 you can sell the 1992 for $1,400, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 1995 Honda Accord.
January 2008 you can sell the 1995 for $2,000, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 1997 Honda Accord.
January 2009 you can sell the 1997 for $2,300, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 1999 Honda Accord.
January 2010 you can sell the 1999 for $2,600, add another $4,000 to it and buy a 2000 Honda Accord.
In January 2011 you have reached the value of used car purchases where selling the 2000 and adding $4,000 to it will not substantially upgrade your car, so you continue to save.
January 2012 you can sell the 2000 for $2,400, add $8,000 (two years of savings) to it and buy a 2006 Honda Accord.
Now we can compare the two decisions. If you had bought the new 2005 you would have a paid off 2005 in 2011 and you would have paid interest ($3,623.40 to be exact) on top of the purchase price. Using our example you could have had a 2006 one year later in 2012 completely paid off and your money made interest for you while in your savings account.
These numbers are all conservative and you could do much better by continuing to save and delay your used car purchases longer than one year. This would be the best thing to do so that you do not keep losing value on selling cars.
For example, if you kept saving and bought a used car every two years you could have bought a 2008 Honda Accord in 2012 completely paid for. When you stretch out your used car purchases while continuing to save, you can purchase much newer vehicles. With this method you can always purchase newer used cars and never pay interest to anyone.
The key to making this work is the disciplined savings. If you have decided that you can make a new car payment, you can put the money in a savings account earmarked for used cars.
Also remember that since you do not have a car payment, if you have a financial problem like a job layoff etc., you will not have to worry about losing your vehicle. Driving paid for used cars is a wise financial practice. It is said that it is the millionaires that purchase and drive used cars. It is those in deep debt that drive new and leased vehicles.
As you have seen here the best time to buy a used car isn't necessarily dependent on actual time but it depends on when you are financially ready.
Our last few vehicle purchases have also taught us that the end of the month may be the best time to buy a used car once you have the money. They seem to give better deals at this time but never before you can pay for it full in cash.
The prices for these vehicles all came from Kelley Blue Book. The purchase prices are just under the KBB retail value and the selling prices are just over the private party value. The values that I used were conservative and you could do much better, especially if you hold onto your vehicles longer while continuing to save.
I use the Honda Accord as the example but this could be done with any vehicle.
什么样的人活得最轻松？
什么样的人活得最轻松？
http://bbs.creaders.net/tea/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=499643
潜心观察，有钱、有权、有名的人，活得都不可能轻松，以为钱、权、名等能解决一切的人，往往真的有了钱、权、名，发现这些本身就是叫人累的东西；想玩女人的人，以为玩女人会是一件快活事，但往往都因为这陷入一堆麻烦中。渴望得到，得到过后又害怕失去，所以说，愿望多的人，拿得起放不下的人，容易多愁善感的人，患得患失的人，太好强的人,都不会轻松。有人说，乞丐活得轻松，我想他们活得简单，也不一定轻松，就是冬天要抵御严寒就是一个难题。但生活之中，确有活得轻松的人，它们是些什么样的人呢？
某些方面容易健忘的人。现实生活中，许多人都会活在痛苦的记忆中，或是忘不了过去的幸福而无法面对痛苦的现实，记忆力太好，就会把本该忘记的都记住了，活在过去，无法面对现实和未来的人，当然会累，有时还是一种自耗和自损。人生中有些伤疤好了也就该忘了痛才好。
没头没脑的人。往往人遇到麻烦，就会说头都大了。头是人体思考问题的中枢，也是长在最上面的部分，头大脚轻就立地不稳，自然轻松不了。没头没脑的人，并不是说真的没有头脑这器官，而是言其遇事往往不多想，说话做事直来直去。这种人当然就少心计甚至无心计，无心计心就不累，受到挫折也一般不怎么放心里去。这种人能不轻松吗？
没心没肺的人。在生活中，我们往往骂不知好坏、不知恩图报的人为“没心没肺”。只要我们多观察一下，有些没心没肺的人，最是放得下的人，受了别人的恩惠，从来不放心上，受多了，甚至是做出了对不起恩人的事，也不在乎。这种人天生神经有些麻木，自然就有享受轻松的先天条件，当然，这类人中也有一部分虽然没心没肺，但头脑好使，过于精明，也不会轻松。没心没肺再加上没头没脑，就会活得轻松。
天性乐观的人。天性乐观的人，遭遇再大的困难都能承受，总认为明天会更好，困难是暂时的，甚至能够做到以苦为乐。身在逆境，也照样乐呵呵的。既使明天要死，今天也要吃好喝好。这些人都是有信念之人，活得积极，看得通透，心灵之上也就活得轻松。
具有隐士心境的人。这些人或许早先最是看不开的人，但突然在生活的遭际中开了心窍，宠辱得失不再怎么挂怀了。人称“宁静致远，淡泊明志”。对于隐士本不考虑心境之远近，也本无心志可言，与世无争，自然就更有一份轻松。
http://bbs.creaders.net/tea/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=499643
潜心观察，有钱、有权、有名的人，活得都不可能轻松，以为钱、权、名等能解决一切的人，往往真的有了钱、权、名，发现这些本身就是叫人累的东西；想玩女人的人，以为玩女人会是一件快活事，但往往都因为这陷入一堆麻烦中。渴望得到，得到过后又害怕失去，所以说，愿望多的人，拿得起放不下的人，容易多愁善感的人，患得患失的人，太好强的人,都不会轻松。有人说，乞丐活得轻松，我想他们活得简单，也不一定轻松，就是冬天要抵御严寒就是一个难题。但生活之中，确有活得轻松的人，它们是些什么样的人呢？
某些方面容易健忘的人。现实生活中，许多人都会活在痛苦的记忆中，或是忘不了过去的幸福而无法面对痛苦的现实，记忆力太好，就会把本该忘记的都记住了，活在过去，无法面对现实和未来的人，当然会累，有时还是一种自耗和自损。人生中有些伤疤好了也就该忘了痛才好。
没头没脑的人。往往人遇到麻烦，就会说头都大了。头是人体思考问题的中枢，也是长在最上面的部分，头大脚轻就立地不稳，自然轻松不了。没头没脑的人，并不是说真的没有头脑这器官，而是言其遇事往往不多想，说话做事直来直去。这种人当然就少心计甚至无心计，无心计心就不累，受到挫折也一般不怎么放心里去。这种人能不轻松吗？
没心没肺的人。在生活中，我们往往骂不知好坏、不知恩图报的人为“没心没肺”。只要我们多观察一下，有些没心没肺的人，最是放得下的人，受了别人的恩惠，从来不放心上，受多了，甚至是做出了对不起恩人的事，也不在乎。这种人天生神经有些麻木，自然就有享受轻松的先天条件，当然，这类人中也有一部分虽然没心没肺，但头脑好使，过于精明，也不会轻松。没心没肺再加上没头没脑，就会活得轻松。
天性乐观的人。天性乐观的人，遭遇再大的困难都能承受，总认为明天会更好，困难是暂时的，甚至能够做到以苦为乐。身在逆境，也照样乐呵呵的。既使明天要死，今天也要吃好喝好。这些人都是有信念之人，活得积极，看得通透，心灵之上也就活得轻松。
具有隐士心境的人。这些人或许早先最是看不开的人，但突然在生活的遭际中开了心窍，宠辱得失不再怎么挂怀了。人称“宁静致远，淡泊明志”。对于隐士本不考虑心境之远近，也本无心志可言，与世无争，自然就更有一份轻松。
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
索罗斯给女儿的信
名人：索罗斯给女儿的信http://www.sina.com.cn 现代快报
http://baby.sina.com.cn/edu/10/2602/2010-02-26/0815157021.shtml
你们的父亲是位投资家，他是个勤奋的人，尽其所能地学习新的知识来赚钱，所以才能在37岁时退休。我想告诉你们我从这些经验中所学到的东西。
善用自己的智慧
在生命中总会有某个时刻需要你作非常重要的决定——关于你的工作、家庭、生活，关于住在哪里，关于怎么投资你的金钱。这时会有很多人愿意向你提供忠告，但是记住这句话：你的生活是你自己的，不是别人的。
别人的忠告当然有对的时候，但事后证明这些忠告无用的次数更多。你必须靠自己研究——尽可能学习面对挑战的本事，自行判断信息的真伪并为自己作决定。你天生就有能力为自己的最大利益作最好的决策，在大多数情况下，经过自己的思索比违背自己的意愿而听从他人的决定，更能作出正确的决策并采取正确的行动。
我记得小时候读过一篇关于游泳健将唐娜·迪薇罗娜的报道，报道指出早期她是个不错但并非顶尖的游泳选手，但是她后来却在奥运会中拿到两块金牌，究竟发生了什么事？！她回答记者说：“以前我老是在注意别的游泳选手，但是之后我就学会无视他们，游我自己的泳。”
被嘲笑的想法反易成功
假如周遭的人都劝你不要做某件事，甚至嘲笑你根本不该想着去做这件事，就可以把这件事当作可能成功的指标。这个道理非常重要，你一定要了解：与众人反向而行是很需要勇气的。事实是，这个世界上从不曾有哪个人是只靠“从众”而成功的。
我用中国给你举个例子。过去人家都说那不是一个值得投资的国家，而事实上，直到20世纪90年代末之前，几乎没有西方人真的试着在中国投资过。但是假如当时有人把钱投资在中国的话，他现在已经发大财了。
做你自己
仔细观察每个领域的成功者，不论是音乐家、艺术家或是什么专家，他们之所以成功都不是因为模仿别人。
我要你以这种勇气追求自己的理想与抱负。父亲是个成功的投资家，并不意味着你也必须成为投资家。我希望你做到的就是做你自己，一个忠于自我、独一无二的自己。
但是你一定、一定要记得，在做你认为是对的事情之前，要尽自己所能先做好功课。找出任何可以到手的资料，仔细研究，彻底分析，直到完全确定你的想法是正确的。绝对不要在还没这么做之前采取任何行动。你会发现，那些不成功的人通常是没有花时间研究就贸然涉入一个他们不了解的领域，更糟糕的是，他们拒绝学习，结果赔上了宝贵的时间与金钱。
全身心投入你最有热情的东西
该怎么做才会成功呢？答案非常简单：做你热爱的事。我在投资方面会成功，因为那是我最喜欢做的事。但你不必非得成为一位投资家。假如你喜欢烧菜，就开一间自己的餐馆；假如你擅长跳舞，就去学跳舞；假如你喜欢做园丁，说不定你以后会拥有一家全球园艺连锁店。想成功最快的方法是做你喜欢做的事，然后全力以赴。
假如选择了一个你不关心的领域，你就不可能有希望获得成功。
http://baby.sina.com.cn/edu/10/2602/2010-02-26/0815157021.shtml
你们的父亲是位投资家，他是个勤奋的人，尽其所能地学习新的知识来赚钱，所以才能在37岁时退休。我想告诉你们我从这些经验中所学到的东西。
善用自己的智慧
在生命中总会有某个时刻需要你作非常重要的决定——关于你的工作、家庭、生活，关于住在哪里，关于怎么投资你的金钱。这时会有很多人愿意向你提供忠告，但是记住这句话：你的生活是你自己的，不是别人的。
别人的忠告当然有对的时候，但事后证明这些忠告无用的次数更多。你必须靠自己研究——尽可能学习面对挑战的本事，自行判断信息的真伪并为自己作决定。你天生就有能力为自己的最大利益作最好的决策，在大多数情况下，经过自己的思索比违背自己的意愿而听从他人的决定，更能作出正确的决策并采取正确的行动。
我记得小时候读过一篇关于游泳健将唐娜·迪薇罗娜的报道，报道指出早期她是个不错但并非顶尖的游泳选手，但是她后来却在奥运会中拿到两块金牌，究竟发生了什么事？！她回答记者说：“以前我老是在注意别的游泳选手，但是之后我就学会无视他们，游我自己的泳。”
被嘲笑的想法反易成功
假如周遭的人都劝你不要做某件事，甚至嘲笑你根本不该想着去做这件事，就可以把这件事当作可能成功的指标。这个道理非常重要，你一定要了解：与众人反向而行是很需要勇气的。事实是，这个世界上从不曾有哪个人是只靠“从众”而成功的。
我用中国给你举个例子。过去人家都说那不是一个值得投资的国家，而事实上，直到20世纪90年代末之前，几乎没有西方人真的试着在中国投资过。但是假如当时有人把钱投资在中国的话，他现在已经发大财了。
做你自己
仔细观察每个领域的成功者，不论是音乐家、艺术家或是什么专家，他们之所以成功都不是因为模仿别人。
我要你以这种勇气追求自己的理想与抱负。父亲是个成功的投资家，并不意味着你也必须成为投资家。我希望你做到的就是做你自己，一个忠于自我、独一无二的自己。
但是你一定、一定要记得，在做你认为是对的事情之前，要尽自己所能先做好功课。找出任何可以到手的资料，仔细研究，彻底分析，直到完全确定你的想法是正确的。绝对不要在还没这么做之前采取任何行动。你会发现，那些不成功的人通常是没有花时间研究就贸然涉入一个他们不了解的领域，更糟糕的是，他们拒绝学习，结果赔上了宝贵的时间与金钱。
全身心投入你最有热情的东西
该怎么做才会成功呢？答案非常简单：做你热爱的事。我在投资方面会成功，因为那是我最喜欢做的事。但你不必非得成为一位投资家。假如你喜欢烧菜，就开一间自己的餐馆；假如你擅长跳舞，就去学跳舞；假如你喜欢做园丁，说不定你以后会拥有一家全球园艺连锁店。想成功最快的方法是做你喜欢做的事，然后全力以赴。
假如选择了一个你不关心的领域，你就不可能有希望获得成功。
Monday, August 2, 2010
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/USAkennedyJ.htm
John Fitzgerald Kennedy, the son of Joseph Patrick Kennedy and Rose Fitzgerald, was born in Brookline, Massachusetts, on 29th May, 1917. His great grandfather, Patrick Kennedy, had emigrated from Ireland in 1849 and his grandfathers, Patrick Joseph Kennedy and John Francis Fitzgerald, were important political figures in Boston. Kennedy's father was a highly successful businessman who later served as ambassador to Great Britain (1937-40).
In 1940 Kennedy graduated from Harvard University with a science degree. The same year saw the publication of Why England Slept (1940), a book on foreign policy. He joined the United States Navy in 1941 and became an intelligence officer. After the United States entered the Second World War, Kennedy was transferred to the Motor Torpedo Boat Squadron where he was given command of a PT boat.
Sent to the South Pacific, in August 1943, his boat was hit by a Japanese destroyer. Two of his crew were killed but the other six men managed to cling on to what remained of the boat. After a five hour struggle Kennedy, and what was left of his crew, managed to get to an island five miles from where the original incident took place.
Kennedy suffered a bad back injury and in December 1943 was sent back to the United States. When he recovered he was promoted to the rank of lieutenant and became a PT instructor in Florida. After a further operation on his back he returned to civilian life in March 1945. For the next twelve months he worked as a journalist covering the United Nations Conference in San Francisco and the 1945 General Election in Britain.
A member of the Democratic Party, Kennedy won election to the House of Representatives in 1946. Over the next couple of years he established himself as a loyal supporter of Harry S. Truman. In Congress he advocated progressive taxation, the extension of social welfare and more low-cost public housing. He was also a leading opponent of the Taft-Hartley Bill.
Kennedy took a strong interest in foreign policy and in 1951 toured Europe visiting Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Yugoslavia and West Germany. On his return he told the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations that the United States should maintain its policy of helping to defend Western Europe. However, he argued that the countries concerned should contribute more to the costs of the operation.
In the autumn of 1951 Kennedy visited the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Indochina, Malaya and Korea. An opponent of colonial empires, Kennedy urged that France should leave Algeria. He also argued for increased financial aid to underdeveloped countries.
Kennedy was elected to the Senate in 1952. The following year he married Jacqueline Bouvier, the daughter of a New York City financier. Over the next few years four children were born but only two, Caroline and John, survived infancy. Kennedy continued to suffer from back problems and had two operations in October 1954 and February 1955. While recovering in hospital he wrote the Pulitzer Prize winning Profiles in Courage (1956).
John Kennedy: An Unfinished Life
John F. Kennedy on Leadership
Kennedy was a strong advocate of social welfare and civil rights legislation in the Senate. Kennedy also sponsored bills for providing Federal financial aid to education, liberalizing United States immigration laws and a measure that required full disclosure of all employee pension and welfare funds.
In 1960 Kennedy entered the race to become the Democratic Party presidential candidate. Kennedy won Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Oregon, Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia. At the national convention in July 1960, Kennedy was nominated on the first ballot. He selected Lyndon B. Johnson, as his running mate.
Kennedy's candidacy was controversial because no Roman Catholic had ever been elected president. It was generally believed that this had played an important factor in the defeat of Al Smith in 1928. Kennedy decided to tackle this issue head on and in a speech in Houston on 11th September, 1960, Kennedy attacked religious bigotry and he explained how he believed in the absolute separation of church and state.
If elected, Kennedy, at 43, would be the second youngest president in United States history (Theodore Roosevelt was only 42 when he replaced the assassinated William McKinley in 1901). In contrast, Richard Nixon, the Republican Party candidate, had served for eight years as vice president under Dwight Eisenhower. During the campaign Nixon highlighted his opponent's lack of experience but when the votes were counted, Kennedy won by 34,226,925 votes to 34,108,662.
At his inaugural address on 20th January, 1961, Kennedy challenged the people of the United States with the statement: "Ask not what your country can do for you, but rather what you can do for your country." Kennedy also wanted the young people of the country to help the undeveloped world. He announced the establishment of the Peace Corps, a scheme that intended to send 10,000 young people to serve in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Kennedy argued that this "practical, inexpensive, person-to-person program will plant trust, good will and a capacity for self-help" in the underdeveloped world.
In the first speech he made to the American public as their President, Kennedy made it clear that he intended to continue Eisenhower's policy of supporting the South Vietnamese government of Ngo Dinh Diem. He argued that if South Vietnam became a communist state, the whole of the non-communist world would be at risk. If South Vietnam fell, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Philippines, New Zealand and Australia would follow. If communism was not halted in Vietnam it would gradually spread throughout the world. This view became known as the Domino Theory. Kennedy went on to argue: "No other challenge is more deserving of our effort and energy... Our security may be lost piece by piece, country by country." Under his leadership, America would be willing to: "pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty."
Kennedy's speech had a considerable impact on many young Americans. Philip Caputo was one of those who traced back his decision to join the US Marines to Kennedy's inauguration speech: "War is always attractive to young men who know nothing about it, but we had also been seduced into uniform by Kennedy's challenge to "ask what you can do for your country" and by the missionary idealism he had awakened in us... we believed we were ordained to play cop to the Communists' robber and spread our own political faith around the world."
When Kennedy replaced Dwight Eisenhower as president of the United States he was told about the CIA plan to invade Cuba. Kennedy had doubts about the venture but he was afraid he would be seen as soft on communism if he refused permission for it to go ahead. Kennedy's advisers convinced him that Fidel Castro was an unpopular leader and that once the invasion started the Cuban people would support the ClA-trained forces.
On April 14, 1961, B-26 planes began bombing Cuba's airfields. After the raids Cuba was left with only eight planes and seven pilots. Two days later five merchant ships carrying 1,400 Cuban exiles arrived at the Bay of Pigs. The attack was a total failure. Two of the ships were sunk, including the ship that was carrying most of the supplies. Two of the planes that were attempting to give air-cover were also shot down. Within seventy-two hours all the invading troops had been killed, wounded or had surrendered.
At the beginning of September 1962, U-2 spy planes discovered that the Soviet Union was building surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch sites. There was also an increase in the number of Soviet ships arriving in Cuba which the United States government feared were carrying new supplies of weapons. President Kennedy complained to the Soviet Union about these developments and warned them that the United States would not accept offensive weapons (SAMs were considered to be defensive) in Cuba.
As the Cubans now had SAM installations they were in a position to shoot down U-2 spy-planes. Kennedy was in a difficult situation. Elections were to take place for the United States Congress in two month's time. The public opinion polls showed that his own ratings had fallen to their lowest point since he became president.
In his first two years of office a combination of Republicans and conservative southern Democrats in Congress had blocked much of Kennedy's proposed legislation. The polls suggested that after the elections he would have even less support in Congress. Kennedy feared that any trouble over Cuba would lose the Democratic Party even more votes, as it would remind voters of the Bay of Pigs disaster where the CIA had tried to oust Castro from power. One poll showed that over 62 per cent of the population were unhappy with his policies on Cuba. Understandably, the Republicans attempted to make Cuba the main issue in the campaign.
This was probably in Kennedy's mind when he decided to restrict the flights of the U-2 planes over Cuba . Pilots were also told to avoid flying the whole length of the island. Kennedy hoped this would ensure that a U-2 plane would not be shot down, and would prevent Cuba becoming a major issue during the election campaign.
On September 27, a CIA agent in Cuba overheard Castro's personal pilot tell another man in a bar that Cuba now had nuclear weapons. U-2 spy-plane photographs also showed that unusual activity was taking place at San Cristobal. However, it was not until October 15 that photographs were taken that revealed that the Soviet Union was placing long range missiles in Cuba.
President Kennedy's first reaction to the information about the missiles in Cuba was to call a meeting to discuss what should be done. Fourteen men attended the meeting and included military leaders, experts on Latin America, representatives of the CIA, cabinet ministers and personal friends whose advice Kennedy valued. This group became known as the Executive Committee of the National Security Council. Over the next few days they were to meet several times.
At the first meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Security Council, the CIA and other military advisers explained the situation. After hearing what they had to say, the general feeling of the meeting was for an air-attack on the missile sites. Remembering the poor advice the CIA had provided before the Bay of Pigs invasion, Kennedy decided to wait and instead called for another meeting to take place that evening. By this time several of the men were having doubts about the wisdom of a bombing raid, fearing that it would lead to a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. The committee was now so divided that a firm decision could not be made.
The Executive Committee of the National Security Council argued amongst themselves for the next two days. The CIA and the military were still in favour of a bombing raid and/or an invasion. However, the majority of the committee gradually began to favour a naval blockade of Cuba.
Kennedy accepted their decision and instructed Theodore Sorensen, a member of the committee, to write a speech in which Kennedy would explain to the world why it was necessary to impose a naval blockade of Cuba.
As well as imposing a naval blockade, Kennedy also told the air-force to prepare for attacks on Cuba and the Soviet Union. The army positioned 125,000 men in Florida and was told to wait for orders to invade Cuba. If the Soviet ships carrying weapons for Cuba did not turn back or refused to be searched, a war was likely to begin. Kennedy also promised his military advisers that if one of the U-2 spy planes were fired upon he would give orders for an attack on the Cuban SAM missile sites.
The world waited anxiously. A public opinion poll in the United States revealed that three out of five people expected fighting to break out between the two sides. There were angry demonstrations outside the American Embassy in London as people protested about the possibility of nuclear war. Demonstrations also took place in other cities in Europe. However, in the United States, polls suggested that the vast majority supported Kennedy's action.
On October 24, President Kennedy was informed that Soviet ships had stopped just before they reached the United States ships blockading Cuba. That evening Nikita Khrushchev sent an angry note to Kennedy accusing him of creating a crisis to help the Democratic Party win the forthcoming election.
On October 26, Khrushchev sent Kennedy another letter. In this he proposed that the Soviet Union would be willing to remove the missiles in Cuba in exchange for a promise by the United States that they would not invade Cuba. The next day a second letter from Khrushchev arrived demanding that the United States remove their nuclear bases in Turkey.
While the president and his advisers were analyzing Khrushchev's two letters, news came through that a U-2 plane had been shot down over Cuba. The leaders of the military, reminding Kennedy of the promise he had made, argued that he should now give orders for the bombing of Cuba. Kennedy refused and instead sent a letter to Khrushchev accepting the terms of his first letter.
Khrushchev agreed and gave orders for the missiles to be dismantled. Eight days later the elections for Congress took place. The Democrats increased their majority and it was estimated that Kennedy would now have an extra twelve supporters in Congress for his policies.
The Cuban Missile Crisis was the first and only nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. The event appeared to frighten both sides and it marked a change in the development of the Cold War.
During this period Kennedy made it clear that he intended to continue the policy of supporting the South Vietnam's government. He argued that if South Vietnam became a communist state, the whole of the non-communist world would be at risk. He went on to claim that: "No other challenge is more deserving of our effort and energy. Our security may be lost piece by piece, country by country." Kennedy added that under his leadership, the United States would be willing to "pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty".
The JFK Assassination Debates
Breach of Trust
President Charles De Gaulle of France, warned him that if he was not careful, Vietnam would trap the United States in "a bottomless military and political swamp." However, most of his advisers argued that with a fairly small increase in military aid, the United States could prevent a NLF victory in South Vietnam.
Kennedy had a good relationship with Ngo Dinh Diem, the leader of the South Vietnamese government and in 1961 he arranged for him to receive the money necessary to increase his army from 150,000 to 170,000. He also agreed to send another 100 military advisers to Vietnam to help train the South Vietnamese Army. As this decision broke the terms of the Geneva Agreement, it was kept from the American public.
In 1962 the Strategic Hamlet Programme was introduced. For sometime the governments of South Vietnam and the United States had been concerned about the influence of the National Liberation Front (NLF) on the peasants. In an attempt to prevent this they moved the peasants into new villages in areas under the control of the South Vietnamese Army. A stockade was built around the village and these were then patrolled by armed guards.
This strategy failed dismally and some observers claimed that it actually increased the number of peasants joining the NLF. As one pointed out: "Peasants resented working without pay to dig moats, implant bamboo stakes, and erect fences against an enemy that did not threaten them but directed its sights against government officials." In the majority of cases the peasants did not want to move and so the South Vietnamese Army often had to apply force. This increased the hostility of the peasants towards Ngo Dinh Diem's government.
In the majority of cases the peasants did not want to move and so the South Vietnamese army often had to apply force. This increased the hostility of the peasants towards the Ngo Dinh Diem government. The peasants were angry at having to travel longer distances to reach their rice fields. Others were upset for religious reasons for they believed that it was vitally important to live where their ancestors were buried.
Kennedy became worried when he was informed that despite the Strategic Hamlet programme, the membership of the National Liberation Front had grown to over 17,000 - a 300 per cent increase in two years - and that they now controlled over one-fifth of the villages in South Vietnam.
These details were used to pressurise Kennedy into supplying more military advisers. This he agreed to do and by the end of 1962 there were 12,000 in Vietnam. Kennedy also made the decision to supply South Vietnam with 300 helicopters. Their American pilots were told not to become "engaged in combat" but this became an order that was difficult to obey. Although Kennedy denied it at the time, American soldiers were becoming increasingly involved in the fighting in Vietnam.
Kennedy had little success in persuading Congress to accept his plans for Medicare. Kennedy's proposals would have provided health coverage for persons over 65 years of age. The insurance was to be financed by increases in the social security payroll tax. Medicare would also offer basic hospital care for 60 days as well as the payment of doctor's fees.
Medicare was popular with the Trade Union movement but was vigorously opposed by private insurance companies. The American Medical Association were also against it, describing the measure as an example of socialism and Kennedy was unable to persuade Congress to pass the bill.
In the 1960 presidential election campaign John F. Kennedy argued for a new Civil Rights Act. After the election it was discovered that over 70 per cent of the African American vote went to Kennedy. During the first two years of his presidency, Kennedy failed to put forward his promised legislation. However, in 1961 he sent 600 Federal marshals to Alabama to protect the Freedom Riders. They were also used to protect the rights of African American students at Mississippi University.
Kennedy's civil rights bill was eventually brought before Congress in 1963 and in a speech on television on 11th June, Kennedy pointed out that: "The Negro baby born in America today, regardless of the section of the nation in which he is born, has about one-half as much chance of completing high school as a white baby born in the same place on the same day; one third as much chance of completing college; one third as much chance of becoming a professional man; twice as much chance of becoming unemployed; about one-seventh as much chance of earning $10,000 a year; a life expectancy which is seven years shorter; and the prospects of earning only half as much."
On 11th June, 1963, Thich Quang Due, a sixty-six year old monk in Vietnam, sat down in the middle of a busy Saigon road. He was then surrounded by a group of Buddhist monks and nuns who poured petrol over his head and then set fire to him. One eyewitness later commented: "As he burned he never moved a muscle, never uttered a sound, his outward composure in sharp contrast to the wailing people around him." While Thich Quang Due was burning to death, the monks and nuns gave out leaflets calling for Diem's government to show "charity and compassion " to all religions.
The government's response to this suicide was to arrest thousands of Buddhist monks. Many disappeared and were never seen again. By August another five monks had committed suicide by setting fire to themselves. One member of the South Vietnamese government responded to these self-immolations by telling a newspaper reporter: "Let them burn, and we shall clap our hands." Another offered to supply Buddhists who wanted to commit suicide with the necessary petrol.
These events convinced Kennedy that Ngo Dinh Diem would never be able to unite the South Vietnamese against communism. Several attempts had already been made to overthrow Diem but Kennedy had always instructed the CIA and the US military forces in Vietnam to protect him. In order to obtain a more popular leader of South Vietnam, Kennedy agreed that the role of the CIA should change. Lucien Conein, a CIA operative, provided a group of South Vietnamese generals with $40,000 to carry out the coup with the promise that US forces would make no attempt to protect Diem. At the beginning of November, 1963, President Diem was overthrown by a military coup. After the generals had promised Diem that he would be allowed to leave the country they changed their mind and killed him.
Kennedy now had serious doubts about his Vietnam policy. He told Kenneth O'Donnell and Mike Mansfield that he intended to get out of Vietnam. Robert S. McNamara, the Secretary of Defense, also thought that Kennedy would withdraw once he was re-elected.
On 22nd November, 1963, President John F. Kennedy arrived in Dallas. It was decided that Kennedy and his party, including his wife, Jacqueline Kennedy, Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson, Governor John Connally and Senator Ralph Yarborough, would travel in a procession of cars through the business district of Dallas. A pilot car and several motorcycles rode ahead of the presidential limousine. As well as Kennedy the limousine included his wife, John Connally, his wife Nellie, Roy Kellerman, head of the Secret Service at the White House and the driver, William Greer. The next car carried eight Secret Service Agents. This was followed by a car containing Lyndon Johnson and Ralph Yarborough.
Bill Mauldin, Chicago Sun-Times (23rd November, 1963)
At about 12.30 p.m. the presidential limousine entered Elm Street. Soon afterwards shots rang out. John Kennedy was hit by bullets that hit him in the head and the left shoulder. Another bullet hit John Connally in the back. Ten seconds after the first shots had been fired the president's car accelerated off at high speed towards Parkland Memorial Hospital. Both men were carried into separate emergency rooms. Connally had wounds to his back, chest, wrist and thigh. Kennedy's injuries were far more serious. He had a massive wound to the head and at 1 p.m. he was declared dead.
Within two hours of the killing, a suspect, Lee Harvey Oswald, was arrested. Throughout the the time Oswald was in custody, he stuck to his story that he had not been involved in the assassination. On 24th November, while being transported by the Dallas police from the city to the county jail, Oswald was shot dead by Jack Ruby
John Fitzgerald Kennedy, the son of Joseph Patrick Kennedy and Rose Fitzgerald, was born in Brookline, Massachusetts, on 29th May, 1917. His great grandfather, Patrick Kennedy, had emigrated from Ireland in 1849 and his grandfathers, Patrick Joseph Kennedy and John Francis Fitzgerald, were important political figures in Boston. Kennedy's father was a highly successful businessman who later served as ambassador to Great Britain (1937-40).
In 1940 Kennedy graduated from Harvard University with a science degree. The same year saw the publication of Why England Slept (1940), a book on foreign policy. He joined the United States Navy in 1941 and became an intelligence officer. After the United States entered the Second World War, Kennedy was transferred to the Motor Torpedo Boat Squadron where he was given command of a PT boat.
Sent to the South Pacific, in August 1943, his boat was hit by a Japanese destroyer. Two of his crew were killed but the other six men managed to cling on to what remained of the boat. After a five hour struggle Kennedy, and what was left of his crew, managed to get to an island five miles from where the original incident took place.
Kennedy suffered a bad back injury and in December 1943 was sent back to the United States. When he recovered he was promoted to the rank of lieutenant and became a PT instructor in Florida. After a further operation on his back he returned to civilian life in March 1945. For the next twelve months he worked as a journalist covering the United Nations Conference in San Francisco and the 1945 General Election in Britain.
A member of the Democratic Party, Kennedy won election to the House of Representatives in 1946. Over the next couple of years he established himself as a loyal supporter of Harry S. Truman. In Congress he advocated progressive taxation, the extension of social welfare and more low-cost public housing. He was also a leading opponent of the Taft-Hartley Bill.
Kennedy took a strong interest in foreign policy and in 1951 toured Europe visiting Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Yugoslavia and West Germany. On his return he told the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations that the United States should maintain its policy of helping to defend Western Europe. However, he argued that the countries concerned should contribute more to the costs of the operation.
In the autumn of 1951 Kennedy visited the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Indochina, Malaya and Korea. An opponent of colonial empires, Kennedy urged that France should leave Algeria. He also argued for increased financial aid to underdeveloped countries.
Kennedy was elected to the Senate in 1952. The following year he married Jacqueline Bouvier, the daughter of a New York City financier. Over the next few years four children were born but only two, Caroline and John, survived infancy. Kennedy continued to suffer from back problems and had two operations in October 1954 and February 1955. While recovering in hospital he wrote the Pulitzer Prize winning Profiles in Courage (1956).
John Kennedy: An Unfinished Life
John F. Kennedy on Leadership
Kennedy was a strong advocate of social welfare and civil rights legislation in the Senate. Kennedy also sponsored bills for providing Federal financial aid to education, liberalizing United States immigration laws and a measure that required full disclosure of all employee pension and welfare funds.
In 1960 Kennedy entered the race to become the Democratic Party presidential candidate. Kennedy won Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Oregon, Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia. At the national convention in July 1960, Kennedy was nominated on the first ballot. He selected Lyndon B. Johnson, as his running mate.
Kennedy's candidacy was controversial because no Roman Catholic had ever been elected president. It was generally believed that this had played an important factor in the defeat of Al Smith in 1928. Kennedy decided to tackle this issue head on and in a speech in Houston on 11th September, 1960, Kennedy attacked religious bigotry and he explained how he believed in the absolute separation of church and state.
If elected, Kennedy, at 43, would be the second youngest president in United States history (Theodore Roosevelt was only 42 when he replaced the assassinated William McKinley in 1901). In contrast, Richard Nixon, the Republican Party candidate, had served for eight years as vice president under Dwight Eisenhower. During the campaign Nixon highlighted his opponent's lack of experience but when the votes were counted, Kennedy won by 34,226,925 votes to 34,108,662.
At his inaugural address on 20th January, 1961, Kennedy challenged the people of the United States with the statement: "Ask not what your country can do for you, but rather what you can do for your country." Kennedy also wanted the young people of the country to help the undeveloped world. He announced the establishment of the Peace Corps, a scheme that intended to send 10,000 young people to serve in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Kennedy argued that this "practical, inexpensive, person-to-person program will plant trust, good will and a capacity for self-help" in the underdeveloped world.
In the first speech he made to the American public as their President, Kennedy made it clear that he intended to continue Eisenhower's policy of supporting the South Vietnamese government of Ngo Dinh Diem. He argued that if South Vietnam became a communist state, the whole of the non-communist world would be at risk. If South Vietnam fell, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Philippines, New Zealand and Australia would follow. If communism was not halted in Vietnam it would gradually spread throughout the world. This view became known as the Domino Theory. Kennedy went on to argue: "No other challenge is more deserving of our effort and energy... Our security may be lost piece by piece, country by country." Under his leadership, America would be willing to: "pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty."
Kennedy's speech had a considerable impact on many young Americans. Philip Caputo was one of those who traced back his decision to join the US Marines to Kennedy's inauguration speech: "War is always attractive to young men who know nothing about it, but we had also been seduced into uniform by Kennedy's challenge to "ask what you can do for your country" and by the missionary idealism he had awakened in us... we believed we were ordained to play cop to the Communists' robber and spread our own political faith around the world."
When Kennedy replaced Dwight Eisenhower as president of the United States he was told about the CIA plan to invade Cuba. Kennedy had doubts about the venture but he was afraid he would be seen as soft on communism if he refused permission for it to go ahead. Kennedy's advisers convinced him that Fidel Castro was an unpopular leader and that once the invasion started the Cuban people would support the ClA-trained forces.
On April 14, 1961, B-26 planes began bombing Cuba's airfields. After the raids Cuba was left with only eight planes and seven pilots. Two days later five merchant ships carrying 1,400 Cuban exiles arrived at the Bay of Pigs. The attack was a total failure. Two of the ships were sunk, including the ship that was carrying most of the supplies. Two of the planes that were attempting to give air-cover were also shot down. Within seventy-two hours all the invading troops had been killed, wounded or had surrendered.
At the beginning of September 1962, U-2 spy planes discovered that the Soviet Union was building surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch sites. There was also an increase in the number of Soviet ships arriving in Cuba which the United States government feared were carrying new supplies of weapons. President Kennedy complained to the Soviet Union about these developments and warned them that the United States would not accept offensive weapons (SAMs were considered to be defensive) in Cuba.
As the Cubans now had SAM installations they were in a position to shoot down U-2 spy-planes. Kennedy was in a difficult situation. Elections were to take place for the United States Congress in two month's time. The public opinion polls showed that his own ratings had fallen to their lowest point since he became president.
In his first two years of office a combination of Republicans and conservative southern Democrats in Congress had blocked much of Kennedy's proposed legislation. The polls suggested that after the elections he would have even less support in Congress. Kennedy feared that any trouble over Cuba would lose the Democratic Party even more votes, as it would remind voters of the Bay of Pigs disaster where the CIA had tried to oust Castro from power. One poll showed that over 62 per cent of the population were unhappy with his policies on Cuba. Understandably, the Republicans attempted to make Cuba the main issue in the campaign.
This was probably in Kennedy's mind when he decided to restrict the flights of the U-2 planes over Cuba . Pilots were also told to avoid flying the whole length of the island. Kennedy hoped this would ensure that a U-2 plane would not be shot down, and would prevent Cuba becoming a major issue during the election campaign.
On September 27, a CIA agent in Cuba overheard Castro's personal pilot tell another man in a bar that Cuba now had nuclear weapons. U-2 spy-plane photographs also showed that unusual activity was taking place at San Cristobal. However, it was not until October 15 that photographs were taken that revealed that the Soviet Union was placing long range missiles in Cuba.
President Kennedy's first reaction to the information about the missiles in Cuba was to call a meeting to discuss what should be done. Fourteen men attended the meeting and included military leaders, experts on Latin America, representatives of the CIA, cabinet ministers and personal friends whose advice Kennedy valued. This group became known as the Executive Committee of the National Security Council. Over the next few days they were to meet several times.
At the first meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Security Council, the CIA and other military advisers explained the situation. After hearing what they had to say, the general feeling of the meeting was for an air-attack on the missile sites. Remembering the poor advice the CIA had provided before the Bay of Pigs invasion, Kennedy decided to wait and instead called for another meeting to take place that evening. By this time several of the men were having doubts about the wisdom of a bombing raid, fearing that it would lead to a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. The committee was now so divided that a firm decision could not be made.
The Executive Committee of the National Security Council argued amongst themselves for the next two days. The CIA and the military were still in favour of a bombing raid and/or an invasion. However, the majority of the committee gradually began to favour a naval blockade of Cuba.
Kennedy accepted their decision and instructed Theodore Sorensen, a member of the committee, to write a speech in which Kennedy would explain to the world why it was necessary to impose a naval blockade of Cuba.
As well as imposing a naval blockade, Kennedy also told the air-force to prepare for attacks on Cuba and the Soviet Union. The army positioned 125,000 men in Florida and was told to wait for orders to invade Cuba. If the Soviet ships carrying weapons for Cuba did not turn back or refused to be searched, a war was likely to begin. Kennedy also promised his military advisers that if one of the U-2 spy planes were fired upon he would give orders for an attack on the Cuban SAM missile sites.
The world waited anxiously. A public opinion poll in the United States revealed that three out of five people expected fighting to break out between the two sides. There were angry demonstrations outside the American Embassy in London as people protested about the possibility of nuclear war. Demonstrations also took place in other cities in Europe. However, in the United States, polls suggested that the vast majority supported Kennedy's action.
On October 24, President Kennedy was informed that Soviet ships had stopped just before they reached the United States ships blockading Cuba. That evening Nikita Khrushchev sent an angry note to Kennedy accusing him of creating a crisis to help the Democratic Party win the forthcoming election.
On October 26, Khrushchev sent Kennedy another letter. In this he proposed that the Soviet Union would be willing to remove the missiles in Cuba in exchange for a promise by the United States that they would not invade Cuba. The next day a second letter from Khrushchev arrived demanding that the United States remove their nuclear bases in Turkey.
While the president and his advisers were analyzing Khrushchev's two letters, news came through that a U-2 plane had been shot down over Cuba. The leaders of the military, reminding Kennedy of the promise he had made, argued that he should now give orders for the bombing of Cuba. Kennedy refused and instead sent a letter to Khrushchev accepting the terms of his first letter.
Khrushchev agreed and gave orders for the missiles to be dismantled. Eight days later the elections for Congress took place. The Democrats increased their majority and it was estimated that Kennedy would now have an extra twelve supporters in Congress for his policies.
The Cuban Missile Crisis was the first and only nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. The event appeared to frighten both sides and it marked a change in the development of the Cold War.
During this period Kennedy made it clear that he intended to continue the policy of supporting the South Vietnam's government. He argued that if South Vietnam became a communist state, the whole of the non-communist world would be at risk. He went on to claim that: "No other challenge is more deserving of our effort and energy. Our security may be lost piece by piece, country by country." Kennedy added that under his leadership, the United States would be willing to "pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty".
The JFK Assassination Debates
Breach of Trust
President Charles De Gaulle of France, warned him that if he was not careful, Vietnam would trap the United States in "a bottomless military and political swamp." However, most of his advisers argued that with a fairly small increase in military aid, the United States could prevent a NLF victory in South Vietnam.
Kennedy had a good relationship with Ngo Dinh Diem, the leader of the South Vietnamese government and in 1961 he arranged for him to receive the money necessary to increase his army from 150,000 to 170,000. He also agreed to send another 100 military advisers to Vietnam to help train the South Vietnamese Army. As this decision broke the terms of the Geneva Agreement, it was kept from the American public.
In 1962 the Strategic Hamlet Programme was introduced. For sometime the governments of South Vietnam and the United States had been concerned about the influence of the National Liberation Front (NLF) on the peasants. In an attempt to prevent this they moved the peasants into new villages in areas under the control of the South Vietnamese Army. A stockade was built around the village and these were then patrolled by armed guards.
This strategy failed dismally and some observers claimed that it actually increased the number of peasants joining the NLF. As one pointed out: "Peasants resented working without pay to dig moats, implant bamboo stakes, and erect fences against an enemy that did not threaten them but directed its sights against government officials." In the majority of cases the peasants did not want to move and so the South Vietnamese Army often had to apply force. This increased the hostility of the peasants towards Ngo Dinh Diem's government.
In the majority of cases the peasants did not want to move and so the South Vietnamese army often had to apply force. This increased the hostility of the peasants towards the Ngo Dinh Diem government. The peasants were angry at having to travel longer distances to reach their rice fields. Others were upset for religious reasons for they believed that it was vitally important to live where their ancestors were buried.
Kennedy became worried when he was informed that despite the Strategic Hamlet programme, the membership of the National Liberation Front had grown to over 17,000 - a 300 per cent increase in two years - and that they now controlled over one-fifth of the villages in South Vietnam.
These details were used to pressurise Kennedy into supplying more military advisers. This he agreed to do and by the end of 1962 there were 12,000 in Vietnam. Kennedy also made the decision to supply South Vietnam with 300 helicopters. Their American pilots were told not to become "engaged in combat" but this became an order that was difficult to obey. Although Kennedy denied it at the time, American soldiers were becoming increasingly involved in the fighting in Vietnam.
Kennedy had little success in persuading Congress to accept his plans for Medicare. Kennedy's proposals would have provided health coverage for persons over 65 years of age. The insurance was to be financed by increases in the social security payroll tax. Medicare would also offer basic hospital care for 60 days as well as the payment of doctor's fees.
Medicare was popular with the Trade Union movement but was vigorously opposed by private insurance companies. The American Medical Association were also against it, describing the measure as an example of socialism and Kennedy was unable to persuade Congress to pass the bill.
In the 1960 presidential election campaign John F. Kennedy argued for a new Civil Rights Act. After the election it was discovered that over 70 per cent of the African American vote went to Kennedy. During the first two years of his presidency, Kennedy failed to put forward his promised legislation. However, in 1961 he sent 600 Federal marshals to Alabama to protect the Freedom Riders. They were also used to protect the rights of African American students at Mississippi University.
Kennedy's civil rights bill was eventually brought before Congress in 1963 and in a speech on television on 11th June, Kennedy pointed out that: "The Negro baby born in America today, regardless of the section of the nation in which he is born, has about one-half as much chance of completing high school as a white baby born in the same place on the same day; one third as much chance of completing college; one third as much chance of becoming a professional man; twice as much chance of becoming unemployed; about one-seventh as much chance of earning $10,000 a year; a life expectancy which is seven years shorter; and the prospects of earning only half as much."
On 11th June, 1963, Thich Quang Due, a sixty-six year old monk in Vietnam, sat down in the middle of a busy Saigon road. He was then surrounded by a group of Buddhist monks and nuns who poured petrol over his head and then set fire to him. One eyewitness later commented: "As he burned he never moved a muscle, never uttered a sound, his outward composure in sharp contrast to the wailing people around him." While Thich Quang Due was burning to death, the monks and nuns gave out leaflets calling for Diem's government to show "charity and compassion " to all religions.
The government's response to this suicide was to arrest thousands of Buddhist monks. Many disappeared and were never seen again. By August another five monks had committed suicide by setting fire to themselves. One member of the South Vietnamese government responded to these self-immolations by telling a newspaper reporter: "Let them burn, and we shall clap our hands." Another offered to supply Buddhists who wanted to commit suicide with the necessary petrol.
These events convinced Kennedy that Ngo Dinh Diem would never be able to unite the South Vietnamese against communism. Several attempts had already been made to overthrow Diem but Kennedy had always instructed the CIA and the US military forces in Vietnam to protect him. In order to obtain a more popular leader of South Vietnam, Kennedy agreed that the role of the CIA should change. Lucien Conein, a CIA operative, provided a group of South Vietnamese generals with $40,000 to carry out the coup with the promise that US forces would make no attempt to protect Diem. At the beginning of November, 1963, President Diem was overthrown by a military coup. After the generals had promised Diem that he would be allowed to leave the country they changed their mind and killed him.
Kennedy now had serious doubts about his Vietnam policy. He told Kenneth O'Donnell and Mike Mansfield that he intended to get out of Vietnam. Robert S. McNamara, the Secretary of Defense, also thought that Kennedy would withdraw once he was re-elected.
On 22nd November, 1963, President John F. Kennedy arrived in Dallas. It was decided that Kennedy and his party, including his wife, Jacqueline Kennedy, Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson, Governor John Connally and Senator Ralph Yarborough, would travel in a procession of cars through the business district of Dallas. A pilot car and several motorcycles rode ahead of the presidential limousine. As well as Kennedy the limousine included his wife, John Connally, his wife Nellie, Roy Kellerman, head of the Secret Service at the White House and the driver, William Greer. The next car carried eight Secret Service Agents. This was followed by a car containing Lyndon Johnson and Ralph Yarborough.
Bill Mauldin, Chicago Sun-Times (23rd November, 1963)
At about 12.30 p.m. the presidential limousine entered Elm Street. Soon afterwards shots rang out. John Kennedy was hit by bullets that hit him in the head and the left shoulder. Another bullet hit John Connally in the back. Ten seconds after the first shots had been fired the president's car accelerated off at high speed towards Parkland Memorial Hospital. Both men were carried into separate emergency rooms. Connally had wounds to his back, chest, wrist and thigh. Kennedy's injuries were far more serious. He had a massive wound to the head and at 1 p.m. he was declared dead.
Within two hours of the killing, a suspect, Lee Harvey Oswald, was arrested. Throughout the the time Oswald was in custody, he stuck to his story that he had not been involved in the assassination. On 24th November, while being transported by the Dallas police from the city to the county jail, Oswald was shot dead by Jack Ruby
zt: 稻花香里听蛙声：祭父(1)
http://blog.creaders.net/xianchouwanzhong/user_blog_diary.php?did=66332
不知不觉中，父亲已离开15年了。
在这期间，写过一篇《祭严父》；与新婚妻子在北京郊外，面朝千里之外的故乡，为父亲烧过一次纸钱；带父亲去世时，仍未出生的孙女回故乡，在父亲坟头拜祭过一次外，就再也没有祭拜过了。
昨天，吃过午饭后，突然感到不舒服，浑身发冷，头痛，也不知怎地，想起父亲，仔细算来，父亲的祭日已过去十多天。难道是父亲在责怪我，远远地躲在万里之遥的南洋享福，而将他忘记？我真希望是这样。也许，养儿才知父母恩，只有在做了父亲之后，才有这样的体会。
英年的父亲去世的很突然，五个子女都不在身边。母亲讲当时的情况：父亲白天还好好的，晚上7点吃完晚饭，还去朋友家串门。晚上10点钟，听完收音机里第二天的天气预报，躺在床上，跟母亲说着话。忽然，母亲感到父亲剧烈地蹬了几下腿，母亲再看父亲时，他已不省人事。母亲赶紧叫叔叔、村里的医生。医生来时，父亲已经过世。爷爷奶奶一人拉着已渐渐没有呼吸的父亲的一只手，无奈地呼唤着父亲的名字，老泪纵横。这白发人送黑发人的场景，再一次降临在爷爷奶奶身上，而几年前，大姑姑也在车祸中去世。
父亲究竟是心脏病，还是脑溢血，至今我也不清楚。
父亲去世时，大哥在湖北工作，我在北京工作，大妹在南京刚结婚，弟弟和小妹妹在念大学和高中。也是在父亲去世的时刻，我在北京的单身宿舍里一个人看电视，电视里播放着一部感人的电视剧，我也被剧情感动得一直流眼泪，不知怎地，那眼泪怎么也止不住，我也就在泪流满面中睡着了。第二天一上班，我的所长对我说：“你回老家一趟，昨晚上你父亲生病了！”所长严肃的表情，我忽然有一种不祥的预感，父亲出事了。联想到昨晚的眼泪，我不敢相信。其实，所长已经知道我父亲去世了，他不愿让我伤心，没有将老家连夜打来的长途电话内容告诉我。
我第一次知道“心电感应”，是中学课本中，烈士林觉民的“与妻书”。年少的我怎么也体会不到其真正的内涵。现在我终于明白了，我为什么会在父亲去世的当晚，泪流满面，也许真是父亲舍不得离开爷爷、奶奶、妻子、儿女。在弥留之际，有超能力显现，通过“心电感应”，将他不舍之心传到千里之外。
是啊！父亲怎么能放心，五个儿女，只有大妹妹成家，一个儿媳妇也没见到！家里的棉花地还等着施药，公粮还没有交，爷爷奶奶的寿材还没有准备，有太多太多的事情他放不下......
在赶往北京车站买票的途中，坐在拥挤的地铁上，我的眼泪就没有断过，我根本不顾旁边旅客的奇怪表情。
我买了当天的高价票，去银行取了钱，立刻踏上了归途。
火车到了县城，当时还没有许多公共汽车去我家乡。我雇了三轮车，快到村口，远远看到家门口悬挂的白幡，我号啕大哭，冲进家门。妈妈扶住我，来到父亲的灵前。可还不能看见父亲的遗容。因为天气太热，为了等待远方归来的儿女，只能将父亲的遗体放在有空调的房间，上面再放上冰。
大哥与大妹妹仍在归途中。
父亲的葬礼在叔叔、婶婶、亲朋好友的帮助下，有条不紊地进行。
家乡至今还实行土葬。村里有一群人专门从事“打墓”的工作。所谓“打墓”，就是在村中荒废的沟壑、地头挖墓穴。通常一个家族有一个陵园，墓穴约有3-4米深，2米宽，梯形，在底部再挖一放棺木的窑洞。墓穴挖好后，儿女要亲自去墓地，感谢挖墓的人。特别是儿子要下到墓穴中，检查是否合格。三叔陪我去的墓地，在我和大哥下去墓穴时，他说：“去好好看看，这是你父亲的窝（家），你要替他暖一暖。”
村里其他人的葬礼也参加过，但从来没有象自己的父亲的葬礼这样，留下如此刻骨铭心的记忆。
父亲是个木匠，他用一双手和工具，和母亲一起培育了5个大学生。村里家家户户都有他做的家具，他吃过所有人家的饭，也赢得了所有人的尊敬。在他那一辈的人中，他年龄最大。因此，我们兄妹的辈份就最小，甚至只有几岁的孩子，都算我们的长辈。也因此，父亲在家族中也同爷爷一样，说话有份量。他非常孝顺爷爷奶奶，对那些不孝敬父母的人，他也常常规劝和教训。
全村所有的家庭，都有人来参加父亲的葬礼。叔叔还请了唱戏的，热热闹闹地把父亲送到了坟地。辛苦了52载的父亲，终于可以永远地休息了。
“树欲静而风不止，子欲养而亲不待”。作为儿女，父亲在世时，都还没有成家立业，没有好好孝敬他，甚至有时对他不理解而顶撞他。从此再也没有孝敬他的机会了。这样的遗憾，才是终生的。
在儿女眼里，父亲到底是个怎样的人？年少的时候，体会不到。直到现在，我也做了父亲，有了可爱的女儿，才真正体会到父亲是个怎样的人。他的音容笑貌，他的点点滴滴，在我泪眼朦胧中，由模模糊糊变的越来越清晰，越来越高大。即使在他去世15年之后，在南洋的异国它乡，我也仿佛看到家乡地头边，他坟头上的碑、他坟头旁的衰草枯杨！
附:祭严父,作于1995年7月
乙亥六月初六，子时，父患心疾，倾刻间离妻别子、神赴黄 泉。不孝儿女，远隔千里，匆匆返家，仅见遗容一面，遂成永憾！
忆父在日，含辛茹苦。孝心敬父母，爱心慰弟妹，血汗养儿女，热心誉邻里，未享片刻安逸！
五十二载，何其短乎！
自幼艰辛，勤朴仁爱，虽险遭摔树之灾，然苍天有眼，回还人间。娶贤妻，育儿女，突染重疾，幸父母恋爱，贤妻恩爱服侍，得抚养幼子成人。其辛劳儿女岂能言表？今家境渐好，不孝儿女皆走正道，正颐养天年之日，儿女尽孝之时，突遭恶运。何如此不幸耶？何如此仓促耶？
呜呼！泪尽唤不回严父英灵！力竭斩不断黄泉道路！此后，再不闻严父谆谆教诲！再不见严父老茧纵横之手！再不见严肃面容后爱子之心！再不闻匆匆操劳动地脚步声！再不见深夜喂牲口的明灯！再不见棉田麦地汗流夹背的身影！
春节匆匆一别，谁知竟成永诀？弥留之际，不孝儿女无人在身边，是否您在苦苦思念？何以千里之外，儿泪流满面？父亲！您一定带走了无数的遗憾：上有老，下有小；您不是还想逛京城，游南京；看儿孙满堂，解膝下荒凉！您不是还想与母亲白头偕老、恩爱情长！不孝的儿女从未将您的健康放在心上，您也从不爱护自己就象爱儿女一样！
父亲！儿女永远不会忘记您！一定会孝敬母亲、照顾小妹；您放心吧！您未尽完的孝儿女会完成！您的仁爱、孝心儿女会继承发扬！
安息吧，父亲！
不孝儿女
乙亥年七月二十六
不知不觉中，父亲已离开15年了。
在这期间，写过一篇《祭严父》；与新婚妻子在北京郊外，面朝千里之外的故乡，为父亲烧过一次纸钱；带父亲去世时，仍未出生的孙女回故乡，在父亲坟头拜祭过一次外，就再也没有祭拜过了。
昨天，吃过午饭后，突然感到不舒服，浑身发冷，头痛，也不知怎地，想起父亲，仔细算来，父亲的祭日已过去十多天。难道是父亲在责怪我，远远地躲在万里之遥的南洋享福，而将他忘记？我真希望是这样。也许，养儿才知父母恩，只有在做了父亲之后，才有这样的体会。
英年的父亲去世的很突然，五个子女都不在身边。母亲讲当时的情况：父亲白天还好好的，晚上7点吃完晚饭，还去朋友家串门。晚上10点钟，听完收音机里第二天的天气预报，躺在床上，跟母亲说着话。忽然，母亲感到父亲剧烈地蹬了几下腿，母亲再看父亲时，他已不省人事。母亲赶紧叫叔叔、村里的医生。医生来时，父亲已经过世。爷爷奶奶一人拉着已渐渐没有呼吸的父亲的一只手，无奈地呼唤着父亲的名字，老泪纵横。这白发人送黑发人的场景，再一次降临在爷爷奶奶身上，而几年前，大姑姑也在车祸中去世。
父亲究竟是心脏病，还是脑溢血，至今我也不清楚。
父亲去世时，大哥在湖北工作，我在北京工作，大妹在南京刚结婚，弟弟和小妹妹在念大学和高中。也是在父亲去世的时刻，我在北京的单身宿舍里一个人看电视，电视里播放着一部感人的电视剧，我也被剧情感动得一直流眼泪，不知怎地，那眼泪怎么也止不住，我也就在泪流满面中睡着了。第二天一上班，我的所长对我说：“你回老家一趟，昨晚上你父亲生病了！”所长严肃的表情，我忽然有一种不祥的预感，父亲出事了。联想到昨晚的眼泪，我不敢相信。其实，所长已经知道我父亲去世了，他不愿让我伤心，没有将老家连夜打来的长途电话内容告诉我。
我第一次知道“心电感应”，是中学课本中，烈士林觉民的“与妻书”。年少的我怎么也体会不到其真正的内涵。现在我终于明白了，我为什么会在父亲去世的当晚，泪流满面，也许真是父亲舍不得离开爷爷、奶奶、妻子、儿女。在弥留之际，有超能力显现，通过“心电感应”，将他不舍之心传到千里之外。
是啊！父亲怎么能放心，五个儿女，只有大妹妹成家，一个儿媳妇也没见到！家里的棉花地还等着施药，公粮还没有交，爷爷奶奶的寿材还没有准备，有太多太多的事情他放不下......
在赶往北京车站买票的途中，坐在拥挤的地铁上，我的眼泪就没有断过，我根本不顾旁边旅客的奇怪表情。
我买了当天的高价票，去银行取了钱，立刻踏上了归途。
火车到了县城，当时还没有许多公共汽车去我家乡。我雇了三轮车，快到村口，远远看到家门口悬挂的白幡，我号啕大哭，冲进家门。妈妈扶住我，来到父亲的灵前。可还不能看见父亲的遗容。因为天气太热，为了等待远方归来的儿女，只能将父亲的遗体放在有空调的房间，上面再放上冰。
大哥与大妹妹仍在归途中。
父亲的葬礼在叔叔、婶婶、亲朋好友的帮助下，有条不紊地进行。
家乡至今还实行土葬。村里有一群人专门从事“打墓”的工作。所谓“打墓”，就是在村中荒废的沟壑、地头挖墓穴。通常一个家族有一个陵园，墓穴约有3-4米深，2米宽，梯形，在底部再挖一放棺木的窑洞。墓穴挖好后，儿女要亲自去墓地，感谢挖墓的人。特别是儿子要下到墓穴中，检查是否合格。三叔陪我去的墓地，在我和大哥下去墓穴时，他说：“去好好看看，这是你父亲的窝（家），你要替他暖一暖。”
村里其他人的葬礼也参加过，但从来没有象自己的父亲的葬礼这样，留下如此刻骨铭心的记忆。
父亲是个木匠，他用一双手和工具，和母亲一起培育了5个大学生。村里家家户户都有他做的家具，他吃过所有人家的饭，也赢得了所有人的尊敬。在他那一辈的人中，他年龄最大。因此，我们兄妹的辈份就最小，甚至只有几岁的孩子，都算我们的长辈。也因此，父亲在家族中也同爷爷一样，说话有份量。他非常孝顺爷爷奶奶，对那些不孝敬父母的人，他也常常规劝和教训。
全村所有的家庭，都有人来参加父亲的葬礼。叔叔还请了唱戏的，热热闹闹地把父亲送到了坟地。辛苦了52载的父亲，终于可以永远地休息了。
“树欲静而风不止，子欲养而亲不待”。作为儿女，父亲在世时，都还没有成家立业，没有好好孝敬他，甚至有时对他不理解而顶撞他。从此再也没有孝敬他的机会了。这样的遗憾，才是终生的。
在儿女眼里，父亲到底是个怎样的人？年少的时候，体会不到。直到现在，我也做了父亲，有了可爱的女儿，才真正体会到父亲是个怎样的人。他的音容笑貌，他的点点滴滴，在我泪眼朦胧中，由模模糊糊变的越来越清晰，越来越高大。即使在他去世15年之后，在南洋的异国它乡，我也仿佛看到家乡地头边，他坟头上的碑、他坟头旁的衰草枯杨！
附:祭严父,作于1995年7月
乙亥六月初六，子时，父患心疾，倾刻间离妻别子、神赴黄 泉。不孝儿女，远隔千里，匆匆返家，仅见遗容一面，遂成永憾！
忆父在日，含辛茹苦。孝心敬父母，爱心慰弟妹，血汗养儿女，热心誉邻里，未享片刻安逸！
五十二载，何其短乎！
自幼艰辛，勤朴仁爱，虽险遭摔树之灾，然苍天有眼，回还人间。娶贤妻，育儿女，突染重疾，幸父母恋爱，贤妻恩爱服侍，得抚养幼子成人。其辛劳儿女岂能言表？今家境渐好，不孝儿女皆走正道，正颐养天年之日，儿女尽孝之时，突遭恶运。何如此不幸耶？何如此仓促耶？
呜呼！泪尽唤不回严父英灵！力竭斩不断黄泉道路！此后，再不闻严父谆谆教诲！再不见严父老茧纵横之手！再不见严肃面容后爱子之心！再不闻匆匆操劳动地脚步声！再不见深夜喂牲口的明灯！再不见棉田麦地汗流夹背的身影！
春节匆匆一别，谁知竟成永诀？弥留之际，不孝儿女无人在身边，是否您在苦苦思念？何以千里之外，儿泪流满面？父亲！您一定带走了无数的遗憾：上有老，下有小；您不是还想逛京城，游南京；看儿孙满堂，解膝下荒凉！您不是还想与母亲白头偕老、恩爱情长！不孝的儿女从未将您的健康放在心上，您也从不爱护自己就象爱儿女一样！
父亲！儿女永远不会忘记您！一定会孝敬母亲、照顾小妹；您放心吧！您未尽完的孝儿女会完成！您的仁爱、孝心儿女会继承发扬！
安息吧，父亲！
不孝儿女
乙亥年七月二十六
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