http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100530/ap_on_bi_ge/us_ap_poll_stressing_over_debt
WASHINGTON – The economy trudges ahead yet debt dogs many Americans, stressing them out even as they firm up their own financial foundations.
There are new jobs produced but old worries persisting for people despite belt-tightening and boosted savings, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll.
About 46 percent of those surveyed say they're suffering from debt-related stress, and half of that group described their stress as "great deal" or "quite a bit." On the other hand, about 53 percent say they feel little or no stress at all.
That's in line with findings from last year, even though times seem better today: The economy is growing and generating jobs, and households have made progress in repairing their financial footing, trimming debt, watching spending and saving more.
It's a big turnaround from a year ago — a shrinking economy, jobs jettisoned as businesses struggled to survive the deepest recession since the 1930s.
So why aren't the stressed — and the not-so-stressed — feeling better?
For starters, it just doesn't feel much like a recovery to many people.
Unemployment is stubbornly high — 9.9 percent. The jobless face fierce competition for work. Those with a job are watching their paychecks shrink.
A growing number of people are at risk of falling into foreclosure, and only those with the most stellar credit probably can get a new loan. AP-GfK polls show that only 20 percent say the economy is good, compared with 15 percent last year.
Cynthia Bryant, 73, feels stress from her bills — much of that heartburn related to medical expenses.
"I need a different car. I can't afford it. I have to watch every penny that comes in," says Bryant, who worked as a purchasing agent for a computer company before she retired. Bryant, who lives in a Denver suburb, gets by on a fixed-income that hasn't budged, although her expenses — rent, groceries and other basics_ have risen.
Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, a research group that keeps close tabs on consumers, says it's people's individual circumstances — more so than their sentiment about the economy — that shape their confidence and their stress over debt. "It's about what happens to me — my house, my car, my job," he says.
Christina Standridge, 33, of Milwaukee, says she's stressed about her debts, including car payments.
Laid off twice in the past two years, Standridge has watched her income drop. She worries about losing her current job as an administrative assistant for a company that designs and builds waste water control systems.
Standridge and her husband, who works at a factory fixing machines, have one daughter. The family is watching the pennies. "We're trying to spend less and pay off the bills," she says. "We're cutting corners wherever we can. We're trying to do things that are relatively cheap," she adds, such as having a backyard barbecue rather than going out to eat or to the movies. "Bills gotta be paid," she says.
People are whittling their debt.
The average amount owed on credit cards is $3,900, the poll said. That's down from $5,600 in the fall and $4,900 last spring.
Families with incomes over $50,000 have sliced their credit card debt by more than half, yet their stress from debt hasn't changed much — it's moderately low. Families with incomes under $50,000, however, have added only slightly to their debt, while their stress level rose sharply.
Goldstein says human nature can factor into people's feelings of debt-related stress.
"You have the optimists and the pessimists. You get half the world looking up at the stars and the other half with their head down looking at the mud," he says.
More broadly, people are cutting their debt at the fastest rate in more than six decades, according to the Federal Reserve. People defaulting on mortgages and other loans factor into the reduction, economists point out.
Household debt fell 1.7 percent last year to $13.5 trillion, according to the Fed. It was the first annual drop, based on records going back to 1945.
People on average carry around $44,000 in debt — mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and other consumer debt. That's a far bigger load than in the early 1980s, when unemployment topped 10 percent. In 1982, per capita debt totaled about $14,000 in today's dollars.
At the same time, people are building up their savings — 4.2 percent of their disposable income last year, the most since 1998, the Commerce Department says.
A Debt Stress Index tied to the AP-GfK poll was 29.2 in May, unchanged from a year ago. The reading signals moderately low stress.
Paul J. Lavrakas, a research psychologist and AP consultant who analyzed the AP-GfK survey, finds that among those with the most stress from debt are women, married couples, people age 30-44, and the poor — households with incomes less than $20,000.
Those with the least debt stress include men, retired people, single people, those 60 and older, and the wealthy — households with incomes greater than $100,000, he says.
Last year, Democrats felt better about their finances than Republicans, despite generally being in worse shape. That sense seems to have worn off: Democrats now report higher debt stress levels on average than Republicans.
Retired mechanical engineer Patrick Burns, 60, of Allyn, Wash., is among those who isn't stressed over debt. He keeps his IOUs to a minimum.
"I've never really gotten into debt," he says. "I've always kind of lived within my means, and I've found there's a lot less stress with that."
The AP-GfK poll involved interviews with 1,002 adults and was conducted May 7-11. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
____
AP Director of Polling Trevor Tompson and Associated Press Writer Christine Simmons contributed to this report.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Saturday, May 29, 2010
我在房地产低迷中的对策
我在房地产低迷中的对策
如山
（2009年3月1日）
http://blog.creaders.net/rushan09/user_blog_diary.php?did=62104
- 西楼 - 跟我说，宏观经济的东西很难讲得清楚，你还是讲讲故事吧。说得对，前面乱 扯一通经济和投资，现在回来谈一些实际的东西。
1. 土地发展与建房
先说一个新房子的例子。面积 2,200SF, 4 个睡房 , 外加一个 Bonus room ， 2.5 个洗手间。 2-car 车库（没有地下室）。 外 墙 (Siding) 是 Hardy plank ，屋顶 30 年期 composition 。 装修：主层（ Main floor ）的走廊，饭厅和 Nook 是木地板，厨房和所有洗手间的 台面（ Countertop ）装 整块（ Slab ）花岗岩， 厨房和所有洗手间的 柜 (Cabinet) 用橡木（ Oak ）。
位置：离中心城市 20 分钟车程的卫星城。
市场价：高峰期卖 50 到 52 万。现在卖 40 到 43 万。卖出的税和佣金 3 万
我的房子建筑成本： 17 万以下（不算利息）。（刚建完并且卖掉的一间建筑成本 $162,000 ）。
假设所有建筑商的建筑成本一样（当然，实际上是不同的），其赚钱或亏本多少就看他的土地成本了和利息支出了。
现在来讨论土地成本和总利润。
高峰期这样的土地卖 17 到 18 万，现在卖 12 到 13 万。
假设从买入土地到卖出房子并且收回资金，时间一年
建筑商需要建筑贷款。平均利率 8% ，利息（连 point ）支出约为 1 万（注意：建筑资金是分期投入，所以利息按半年算。）
根据以上资料，普通建筑商现在的利润：
$400,000( 卖出价 ) -$170,000 （ 建筑成本） -$130,000 （ 土地成本） -$10,000 （贷款利息） -$30,000 （ 卖出税和佣金） =$60,000
与销售价折算： $60,000/$400,000=15%
与投入成本算： $60,000($170,000+$130,000+$10,000)=19.35% （ 卖出税和佣金在卖出成交的当天才扣，所以不算入资金成本。
回报看起来还可以，是吗？那是不是还有很多 建筑商都在做呢？不是。为啥？
a) 现在土地基本上不能贷款，当你买地时，你要投入现金
b) 建筑贷款不容易，利率也没有降低。
c) 原来建好的房由于有建筑贷款（ Lien ） , 限制减价幅度出售。
d) 未来市场风险很大，等你建好有可能市场再掉 10% 或更多 。
那我为什么还在建，而且稍为加快速度？
a) 我土地发展（或购买土地）不贷款，我建筑也不贷款。
b) 经土地发展得来的单块地成本很少，每块地的成本大约在现在地价的三分之一到四分之一（上面例子的地我的成本是 3 万）
c) 基于 a) 和 b), 我有大量空间可以减价竞争，从而不压货。
d) 建筑材料费与人工费用与高峰期比下降约 15% 。为啥？竞争。无论材料或人工，在目前这种状况，谁都尽量卖。
e) 本地 3 个中大型建筑商破产，部分小建筑商破产，正是我这样的小建筑商立足与发展之时。以前根本不理睬我的供应商和 Subcontractor( 都是价钱又好服务也好的一类 ) 纷纷跟我们这类还有能力做的建筑商建立关系（供应商开有折扣的 Credit account ）。
顺便说一下，我想大发展吗？不是。最近有两个拿着大笔款来的主，想跟我合作将公司做大，被我回绝。有 Partner 有合伙公司，我就不好天天 2-3 个小时泡在 Club 啦。我只想稳定，轻松地赚钱，没有钱的后顾之忧。就像有网友说的，干吗呢，人生苦短。再多钱再高位你也带不走。要是身体不好，你的生活质量马上就下降。所以，现在的生活好最重要。当然啦，要是苦苦挣扎在贫困线上（ CND 的读者不在此列）或是天天忧虑被炒的话，也不是什么好玩的事。
3. 风险概念与风险意识
人们常说“回报和风险成正比”，一般而言，这是对的。但一到不同人的比，这可就有分别了。例如，你从别的地方来，从网上获得有关资料，今天来到我的 County 跟我一块竞投地。毫无异议，你的投资风险可比我大多了。就算你跟我在同一个 County, 你要没有我对地，尤其对所投的地的了解和相关知识的话，你的风险照样比我大很多。同理，我要是投资股票，与一个真正的专家（别说没有）比，我的风险也大多了。
至于我这里怕不怕新楼的市场价突然（一年之内）掉到低于建筑成本价，我不担心。根据我所在州的经济情况和过去几年的升幅，我不相信有那么大的下跌可能。更不用说出现老马所说的，用 10 万可以买到 30 到 40 万的成本才可以建成的新建房子。老马所在的城，听起来真像“鬼城”（ - 西楼 - 的话。 - 西楼 - 时不时会 蹦出一句画龙点睛的警句）。老马你还不赶紧逃？
我所在的中心城市可不是一个小城，要真是那种情况出现的话，全美恐怕没什么地方可以躲的啦。
再说，什么都太担心的话，就不用干事了。我还不如担心一下今晚吃鱼时会不会有鱼骨卡在喉咙更实在一点（想想我们老中吃什么都爱连骨的，那风险才是真够大的）。
4. 怎么找到那么好的买卖
让我们先一起读一段孙子兵法：
“见胜，不过众人之所知，非善之善者也；战胜，而天下曰善，非善之善者也。故举秋毫，不为多力；见日月，不为明目；闻雷霆，不为聪耳。古之善战者，胜于易胜者也”。（孙子兵法，军形篇）
要是大家都容易看得到价值的房产，也没有什么特别的好 Deal 了。要想做得好，除了我在“答 Venus 关于哪里和哪种方式能 容易买到 折扣 大的房屋”和“ 漫谈拍卖与租房的资金运用及回报”里提到的方法以外，你要下功夫调查，思考，运用你的判断力做出与一般人不一样的判断，你才有机会大赢。我就靠每年都找到这样一个没人跟我抢而又有很高潜在价值的物业，才加快了我的资本 积 累。
另外，在决定要进入一个行业竞争之前，你都应该有一个 对进入 障碍（ barriers to entry ）的思考与评估（这是策略管理的概念，有兴趣的读者可以找有关“ Strategic Management” 的书来看），也就是看看适不适合你去做，绝不可盲目进场，尤其是现在的市场。让我们重温一段大家熟悉的 孙子兵法：
“知己知彼，百战不殆；不知彼而知己，一胜一负；不知彼不知己，每战必败”。（孙子兵法，谋攻篇）
补记：
该文最初在2009年3月1日写成并贴于CND。本地市场目前（2010年5月）已有很大的改善。请读者留言时间和当地市场。
（注：本文为如山原创，转载请与作者联系）
如山
（2009年3月1日）
http://blog.creaders.net/rushan09/user_blog_diary.php?did=62104
- 西楼 - 跟我说，宏观经济的东西很难讲得清楚，你还是讲讲故事吧。说得对，前面乱 扯一通经济和投资，现在回来谈一些实际的东西。
1. 土地发展与建房
先说一个新房子的例子。面积 2,200SF, 4 个睡房 , 外加一个 Bonus room ， 2.5 个洗手间。 2-car 车库（没有地下室）。 外 墙 (Siding) 是 Hardy plank ，屋顶 30 年期 composition 。 装修：主层（ Main floor ）的走廊，饭厅和 Nook 是木地板，厨房和所有洗手间的 台面（ Countertop ）装 整块（ Slab ）花岗岩， 厨房和所有洗手间的 柜 (Cabinet) 用橡木（ Oak ）。
位置：离中心城市 20 分钟车程的卫星城。
市场价：高峰期卖 50 到 52 万。现在卖 40 到 43 万。卖出的税和佣金 3 万
我的房子建筑成本： 17 万以下（不算利息）。（刚建完并且卖掉的一间建筑成本 $162,000 ）。
假设所有建筑商的建筑成本一样（当然，实际上是不同的），其赚钱或亏本多少就看他的土地成本了和利息支出了。
现在来讨论土地成本和总利润。
高峰期这样的土地卖 17 到 18 万，现在卖 12 到 13 万。
假设从买入土地到卖出房子并且收回资金，时间一年
建筑商需要建筑贷款。平均利率 8% ，利息（连 point ）支出约为 1 万（注意：建筑资金是分期投入，所以利息按半年算。）
根据以上资料，普通建筑商现在的利润：
$400,000( 卖出价 ) -$170,000 （ 建筑成本） -$130,000 （ 土地成本） -$10,000 （贷款利息） -$30,000 （ 卖出税和佣金） =$60,000
与销售价折算： $60,000/$400,000=15%
与投入成本算： $60,000($170,000+$130,000+$10,000)=19.35% （ 卖出税和佣金在卖出成交的当天才扣，所以不算入资金成本。
回报看起来还可以，是吗？那是不是还有很多 建筑商都在做呢？不是。为啥？
a) 现在土地基本上不能贷款，当你买地时，你要投入现金
b) 建筑贷款不容易，利率也没有降低。
c) 原来建好的房由于有建筑贷款（ Lien ） , 限制减价幅度出售。
d) 未来市场风险很大，等你建好有可能市场再掉 10% 或更多 。
那我为什么还在建，而且稍为加快速度？
a) 我土地发展（或购买土地）不贷款，我建筑也不贷款。
b) 经土地发展得来的单块地成本很少，每块地的成本大约在现在地价的三分之一到四分之一（上面例子的地我的成本是 3 万）
c) 基于 a) 和 b), 我有大量空间可以减价竞争，从而不压货。
d) 建筑材料费与人工费用与高峰期比下降约 15% 。为啥？竞争。无论材料或人工，在目前这种状况，谁都尽量卖。
e) 本地 3 个中大型建筑商破产，部分小建筑商破产，正是我这样的小建筑商立足与发展之时。以前根本不理睬我的供应商和 Subcontractor( 都是价钱又好服务也好的一类 ) 纷纷跟我们这类还有能力做的建筑商建立关系（供应商开有折扣的 Credit account ）。
顺便说一下，我想大发展吗？不是。最近有两个拿着大笔款来的主，想跟我合作将公司做大，被我回绝。有 Partner 有合伙公司，我就不好天天 2-3 个小时泡在 Club 啦。我只想稳定，轻松地赚钱，没有钱的后顾之忧。就像有网友说的，干吗呢，人生苦短。再多钱再高位你也带不走。要是身体不好，你的生活质量马上就下降。所以，现在的生活好最重要。当然啦，要是苦苦挣扎在贫困线上（ CND 的读者不在此列）或是天天忧虑被炒的话，也不是什么好玩的事。
3. 风险概念与风险意识
人们常说“回报和风险成正比”，一般而言，这是对的。但一到不同人的比，这可就有分别了。例如，你从别的地方来，从网上获得有关资料，今天来到我的 County 跟我一块竞投地。毫无异议，你的投资风险可比我大多了。就算你跟我在同一个 County, 你要没有我对地，尤其对所投的地的了解和相关知识的话，你的风险照样比我大很多。同理，我要是投资股票，与一个真正的专家（别说没有）比，我的风险也大多了。
至于我这里怕不怕新楼的市场价突然（一年之内）掉到低于建筑成本价，我不担心。根据我所在州的经济情况和过去几年的升幅，我不相信有那么大的下跌可能。更不用说出现老马所说的，用 10 万可以买到 30 到 40 万的成本才可以建成的新建房子。老马所在的城，听起来真像“鬼城”（ - 西楼 - 的话。 - 西楼 - 时不时会 蹦出一句画龙点睛的警句）。老马你还不赶紧逃？
我所在的中心城市可不是一个小城，要真是那种情况出现的话，全美恐怕没什么地方可以躲的啦。
再说，什么都太担心的话，就不用干事了。我还不如担心一下今晚吃鱼时会不会有鱼骨卡在喉咙更实在一点（想想我们老中吃什么都爱连骨的，那风险才是真够大的）。
4. 怎么找到那么好的买卖
让我们先一起读一段孙子兵法：
“见胜，不过众人之所知，非善之善者也；战胜，而天下曰善，非善之善者也。故举秋毫，不为多力；见日月，不为明目；闻雷霆，不为聪耳。古之善战者，胜于易胜者也”。（孙子兵法，军形篇）
要是大家都容易看得到价值的房产，也没有什么特别的好 Deal 了。要想做得好，除了我在“答 Venus 关于哪里和哪种方式能 容易买到 折扣 大的房屋”和“ 漫谈拍卖与租房的资金运用及回报”里提到的方法以外，你要下功夫调查，思考，运用你的判断力做出与一般人不一样的判断，你才有机会大赢。我就靠每年都找到这样一个没人跟我抢而又有很高潜在价值的物业，才加快了我的资本 积 累。
另外，在决定要进入一个行业竞争之前，你都应该有一个 对进入 障碍（ barriers to entry ）的思考与评估（这是策略管理的概念，有兴趣的读者可以找有关“ Strategic Management” 的书来看），也就是看看适不适合你去做，绝不可盲目进场，尤其是现在的市场。让我们重温一段大家熟悉的 孙子兵法：
“知己知彼，百战不殆；不知彼而知己，一胜一负；不知彼不知己，每战必败”。（孙子兵法，谋攻篇）
补记：
该文最初在2009年3月1日写成并贴于CND。本地市场目前（2010年5月）已有很大的改善。请读者留言时间和当地市场。
（注：本文为如山原创，转载请与作者联系）
Thursday, May 27, 2010
女人发生艳遇的七个最高机密
女人发生艳遇的七个最高机密
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://digest.creaders.net/articleViewer.php?atid=287203&id=294201
花心未必意味着付诸行动，风流成性的人终究不多，但我们面临的毕竟是这样一个时代……对方不一定要很有魅力但必须善解人意;不一定事业有成但要懂得嗬护;不一定要讨女人欢心但必须用情专一。
十个男人九个花。女人其实也是如此，只是比较含蓄，就男人女人对于艳遇的本性而言，对金钱、权力、性的看法是基本一致的，仅有的差异也只是一个机会和胆量的问题。花心未必意味着付诸行动，风流成性的人终究不多，但我们面临的毕竟是这样一个时代……
一、遭遇旧情人
笑比哭好，旧比新好。已婚女人突然在一个不经意的场所遭遇曾经深爱过最终却黯然分手的旧情人，那真好比革命党人遭受敌人的严刑拷打，究竟是当甫志高还是当江姐全靠个人定力了。这里的“新“指的是现实状态下的婚姻。现实唯其真实而展露出有缺憾的地方，便不满，便怀念，甚至幻想那一段有头没尾的情感历程如何完美，深入地展开----这样的心理状态无疑是艳遇之花得以盛开的最好土壤。旧情人来了，矛盾也跟着来了。
临界条件：
(1)丈夫刚暴打了已婚女人一顿。(2)旧情人成熟练达且旧情难忘。(3)两人共进了晚餐并都喝了点酒。
二、酒吧是个危险的所在
对男人来说，酒吧是个过滤器或伪装仪，它能让粗野的男人貌似优雅;对女人来说，酒吧则成了边缘情感的盛放地，并毫无疑问是艳遇的高发地带。从女人的视野里望去，酒吧里的男人经常作著如下的经典表演：晃动着半杯葡萄酒，面带笑容地从一个吧台踱到另一个吧台。一般不轻易坐下，除非猎物确已上手。即使与未进入选择范围的女士交谈也绝对耐心诚恳。嘴角似笑非笑，嗓音略带磁性，眼然顾盼有神--他在渴盼一场真正的艳遇。女人们尽管对这样的表演心知肚明但依旧很容易陷进去。泡吧里的女人不奢求天长地久，酒吧里的女人很感性。这样的一场艳遇展开是不需要什么理由的。
临界条件：
(1)这个男人有周润发式的微笑。(2)或高仓健式的冷漠。(3)或葛优式的幽默。
三、有魅力的中年男人
有魅力的中年男人是一列四处招摇的火车，想远行的女人都想搭乘。青年男人是青苹果，中年男人是红苹果，一些硬件是中年男人所特有的：一定的声誉和社会地位;能够从容理智地审时处世;对女性心理有细致入微的了解。所有这些都使女人们认定中年男人是自己的重点艳遇对象。特别是有魅力的中年男人。
当然这种类型的艳遇要比其他类型的来得复杂。女人们可能一往情深，男人们却一半是海水一半是火焰。几乎可以肯定地说，在这些情感游戏中，阴谋与无知往往组合到了一起。最后的受伤者必定是女人，最后的持刃者则肯定是那个一脸无辜的中年人。艳遇中的女人我是理解你们的，你们要警惕!
临界条件：
(1)女方从小失去父爱。(2)年龄不足28岁。(3)男方口若悬河或沉默是金。(4)且最好自称目前的婚姻状况不如意。
四、男上司啊男上司
女下属与男上司发生恋情也是一种艳遇模式。可以肯定的是这种艳遇与权势无关， 尽管权势所起的威慑作用在某些时候类似美国和北约的导弹;咄咄逼人，蛮横而不讲理，但毕竟办公室里的艳遇还是与性骚扰
无关。其实衡量这种特殊的上下级关系是艳遇还是性骚扰标准只有一个女人怒斥“你少跟我克林顿“时是性骚扰，否则就是艳遇了。当然不是所有的男上司都可能成为女下属的艳遇对象，这一点跟男上司婚否无关，而跟他人的人格魅力密切相关。
临界条件：
(1)男上司刚调进来。(2)每天将下巴刮得铁青铁青。(3)基本上不苟言笑，有一些神秘感。(4)却在适当的场合对女士嘘寒问暖。
五、丈夫冷漠抑或花心
这样的丈夫使妻子发生艳遇的概率大大提高了。有一些报复，有一些感伤，有一些渴盼。一个电话，一次聚会，一场邂逅。采取什么样的手段或方式其实并不重要，重要的是这时的妻子要有所作为了。对方不一定要很有魅力但必须善解人意;不一定事业有成但要懂得嗬护;不一定要讨女人欢心但必须用情专一。这时的女人寻找艳遇实际上是寻找理想状态的爱情抑或爱人。被艳遇上的男人则压力重重;这样的情感是否太沉重
临界条件：
(1)女人是深爱丈夫的。(2)丈夫却游戏情感。(3)出现了一个善解人意、用情专一的男人。
六、爱在异国他乡
实际上这是说一种特定时空下可能发生的艳遇。比如电视剧《百老汇100号》，比如剧中的齐诗缨和金大师。一对已婚男女(爱人不是对方)，同在异国他乡一个屋簷下，时间是三年，艳遇怎能不顺理成章发生呢男人可能生理上的孤寂大于心理上的，但女人恰好相反。艳遇众目睽睽地进行，齐诗缨的女性弱点被画家金大师牢牢抓住。所以出了国的女人最好选择独居。但独居就没事了吗
临界条件：
(1)有一个留学生聚会。(2)时间是中秋节、元宵节或情人节。(3)各自的爱人都不在身边。
七、坏小子酷小子另类小子
都是有个性的小子。这样的小子少女们喜欢，少妇甚至中年妇女也可能喜欢。据说现在是新坏男人时代。新坏男人在愿意负责任的时候负点责任，在不愿负责任的时候绝不委屈自己。女人们感觉这样的男人很亲切，很真实，不道貌岸然，便可能产生亲近的愿望。酷小子是道格拉斯的弟弟或儿子，但又比道有冲劲有活力，是女人“一夜情“的最佳艳遇对象----但也仅仅适合一夜时间，时间久了酷就成纸老虎了。另类的男人是玩艺术、玩边缘感觉的。可能留辫子可能秃瓢，可能有工作可能无业，可能负责任也可能不负责任----在这点上另类小子与坏小子没什么区别。女人们艳遇上这些个性小子是对某种感觉或情调的寻寻觅觅，结局大抵逃不出“浅尝辄止“四个字。
临界条件：
(1)有可能陷进去的女人有一些冒险心理。(2)可能未婚。(3)也可能已婚但婚后生活平淡如水。
编后语：在女人的意识深处，或多或少都会对性有不切实际的幻想，在一般情况下，男人女人都不会轻易冒险，但在外部和内部条件许可的情况下，这种事情发生的概率将大为提高。
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http://digest.creaders.net/articleViewer.php?atid=287203&id=294201
花心未必意味着付诸行动，风流成性的人终究不多，但我们面临的毕竟是这样一个时代……对方不一定要很有魅力但必须善解人意;不一定事业有成但要懂得嗬护;不一定要讨女人欢心但必须用情专一。
十个男人九个花。女人其实也是如此，只是比较含蓄，就男人女人对于艳遇的本性而言，对金钱、权力、性的看法是基本一致的，仅有的差异也只是一个机会和胆量的问题。花心未必意味着付诸行动，风流成性的人终究不多，但我们面临的毕竟是这样一个时代……
一、遭遇旧情人
笑比哭好，旧比新好。已婚女人突然在一个不经意的场所遭遇曾经深爱过最终却黯然分手的旧情人，那真好比革命党人遭受敌人的严刑拷打，究竟是当甫志高还是当江姐全靠个人定力了。这里的“新“指的是现实状态下的婚姻。现实唯其真实而展露出有缺憾的地方，便不满，便怀念，甚至幻想那一段有头没尾的情感历程如何完美，深入地展开----这样的心理状态无疑是艳遇之花得以盛开的最好土壤。旧情人来了，矛盾也跟着来了。
临界条件：
(1)丈夫刚暴打了已婚女人一顿。(2)旧情人成熟练达且旧情难忘。(3)两人共进了晚餐并都喝了点酒。
二、酒吧是个危险的所在
对男人来说，酒吧是个过滤器或伪装仪，它能让粗野的男人貌似优雅;对女人来说，酒吧则成了边缘情感的盛放地，并毫无疑问是艳遇的高发地带。从女人的视野里望去，酒吧里的男人经常作著如下的经典表演：晃动着半杯葡萄酒，面带笑容地从一个吧台踱到另一个吧台。一般不轻易坐下，除非猎物确已上手。即使与未进入选择范围的女士交谈也绝对耐心诚恳。嘴角似笑非笑，嗓音略带磁性，眼然顾盼有神--他在渴盼一场真正的艳遇。女人们尽管对这样的表演心知肚明但依旧很容易陷进去。泡吧里的女人不奢求天长地久，酒吧里的女人很感性。这样的一场艳遇展开是不需要什么理由的。
临界条件：
(1)这个男人有周润发式的微笑。(2)或高仓健式的冷漠。(3)或葛优式的幽默。
三、有魅力的中年男人
有魅力的中年男人是一列四处招摇的火车，想远行的女人都想搭乘。青年男人是青苹果，中年男人是红苹果，一些硬件是中年男人所特有的：一定的声誉和社会地位;能够从容理智地审时处世;对女性心理有细致入微的了解。所有这些都使女人们认定中年男人是自己的重点艳遇对象。特别是有魅力的中年男人。
当然这种类型的艳遇要比其他类型的来得复杂。女人们可能一往情深，男人们却一半是海水一半是火焰。几乎可以肯定地说，在这些情感游戏中，阴谋与无知往往组合到了一起。最后的受伤者必定是女人，最后的持刃者则肯定是那个一脸无辜的中年人。艳遇中的女人我是理解你们的，你们要警惕!
临界条件：
(1)女方从小失去父爱。(2)年龄不足28岁。(3)男方口若悬河或沉默是金。(4)且最好自称目前的婚姻状况不如意。
四、男上司啊男上司
女下属与男上司发生恋情也是一种艳遇模式。可以肯定的是这种艳遇与权势无关， 尽管权势所起的威慑作用在某些时候类似美国和北约的导弹;咄咄逼人，蛮横而不讲理，但毕竟办公室里的艳遇还是与性骚扰
无关。其实衡量这种特殊的上下级关系是艳遇还是性骚扰标准只有一个女人怒斥“你少跟我克林顿“时是性骚扰，否则就是艳遇了。当然不是所有的男上司都可能成为女下属的艳遇对象，这一点跟男上司婚否无关，而跟他人的人格魅力密切相关。
临界条件：
(1)男上司刚调进来。(2)每天将下巴刮得铁青铁青。(3)基本上不苟言笑，有一些神秘感。(4)却在适当的场合对女士嘘寒问暖。
五、丈夫冷漠抑或花心
这样的丈夫使妻子发生艳遇的概率大大提高了。有一些报复，有一些感伤，有一些渴盼。一个电话，一次聚会，一场邂逅。采取什么样的手段或方式其实并不重要，重要的是这时的妻子要有所作为了。对方不一定要很有魅力但必须善解人意;不一定事业有成但要懂得嗬护;不一定要讨女人欢心但必须用情专一。这时的女人寻找艳遇实际上是寻找理想状态的爱情抑或爱人。被艳遇上的男人则压力重重;这样的情感是否太沉重
临界条件：
(1)女人是深爱丈夫的。(2)丈夫却游戏情感。(3)出现了一个善解人意、用情专一的男人。
六、爱在异国他乡
实际上这是说一种特定时空下可能发生的艳遇。比如电视剧《百老汇100号》，比如剧中的齐诗缨和金大师。一对已婚男女(爱人不是对方)，同在异国他乡一个屋簷下，时间是三年，艳遇怎能不顺理成章发生呢男人可能生理上的孤寂大于心理上的，但女人恰好相反。艳遇众目睽睽地进行，齐诗缨的女性弱点被画家金大师牢牢抓住。所以出了国的女人最好选择独居。但独居就没事了吗
临界条件：
(1)有一个留学生聚会。(2)时间是中秋节、元宵节或情人节。(3)各自的爱人都不在身边。
七、坏小子酷小子另类小子
都是有个性的小子。这样的小子少女们喜欢，少妇甚至中年妇女也可能喜欢。据说现在是新坏男人时代。新坏男人在愿意负责任的时候负点责任，在不愿负责任的时候绝不委屈自己。女人们感觉这样的男人很亲切，很真实，不道貌岸然，便可能产生亲近的愿望。酷小子是道格拉斯的弟弟或儿子，但又比道有冲劲有活力，是女人“一夜情“的最佳艳遇对象----但也仅仅适合一夜时间，时间久了酷就成纸老虎了。另类的男人是玩艺术、玩边缘感觉的。可能留辫子可能秃瓢，可能有工作可能无业，可能负责任也可能不负责任----在这点上另类小子与坏小子没什么区别。女人们艳遇上这些个性小子是对某种感觉或情调的寻寻觅觅，结局大抵逃不出“浅尝辄止“四个字。
临界条件：
(1)有可能陷进去的女人有一些冒险心理。(2)可能未婚。(3)也可能已婚但婚后生活平淡如水。
编后语：在女人的意识深处，或多或少都会对性有不切实际的幻想，在一般情况下，男人女人都不会轻易冒险，但在外部和内部条件许可的情况下，这种事情发生的概率将大为提高。
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
给年轻工程师的十大忠告
给年轻工程师的十大忠告 (ZT) 2009-12-07 18:57:16
给年轻工程师的十大忠告
美国老工程师
我在网上花了很多时间，学到很多知识。这是我以前看过的一篇文章，看了感触很深，就保存下来。现在放在这里，与大家分享，也等着原作者领回版权。----刘以栋
诸位，咱当电子工程师也已十余年了，不算有出息，环顾四周，也没有看见几个有出息的！回顾工程师生涯，感慨万千，愿意讲几句掏心窝子的话，也算给咱们师弟师妹们提个醒，希望他们比咱们强！
〔１〕好好规划自己的路，不要跟著感觉走！根据个人的理想决策安排，绝大部分人并不指望成为什么院士或教授，而是希望活得滋润一些，爽一些。那么，就需要慎重安排自己的轨迹。从哪个行业入手，逐渐对该行业深入了解，不要频繁跳槽，特别是不要为了一点工资而转移阵地，从长远看，这点钱根本不算什么，当你对一个行业有那么几年的体会，以后钱根本不是问题。频繁地动荡不是上策，最后你对哪个行业都没有摸透，永远是新手！
〔２〕可以做技术，切不可沉湎于技术。千万不可一门心思钻研技术！给自己很大压力，如果你的心思全部放在这上面，那么注定你将成为孔乙己一类的人物！适可而止为之，因为技术只不过是你今后前途的支柱之一，而且还不是最大的支柱，除非你只愿意到老还是个工程师！
〔３〕不要去做技术高手，只去做综合素质高手！在企业里混，我们时常瞧不起某人，说他“什么都不懂，凭啥拿那么多钱，凭啥升官！”这是普遍的典型的工程师的迂腐之言。你很牛吗？人家能上去必然有他的本事，而且是你没有的本事。你想想，老板搞经营那么多年，难道见识不如你这个新兵？人家或许善于管理，善于领会老板意图，善于部门协调等等。因此务必培养自己多方面的能力，包括管理，亲和力，察言观色能力，攻关能力等，要成为综合素质的高手，则前途无量，否则只能躲在角落看示波器！技术以外的技能才是更重要的本事！！从古到今，美国日本，一律如此！
〔４〕多交社会三教九流的朋友！不要只和工程师交往，认为有共同语言，其实更重要的是和其他类人物交往，如果你希望有朝一日当老板或高层管理，那么你整日面对的就是这些人。了解他们的经历，思维习惯，爱好，学习他们处理问题的模式，了解社会各个角落的现象和问题，这是以后发展的巨大的本钱，没有这些以后就会笨手笨脚，跌跌撞撞，遇到重重困难，交不少学费，成功的概率大大降低！
〔５〕知识涉猎不一定专，但一定要广！多看看其他方面的书，金融，财会，进出口，税务，法律等等，为以后做一些积累，以后的用处会更大！会少交许多学费！！
〔６〕抓住时机向技术管理或市场销售方面的转变！要想有前途就不能一直搞开发，适当时候要转变为管理或销售，前途会更大，以前搞技术也没有白搞，以后还用得著。搞管理可以培养自己的领导能力，搞销售可以培养自己的市场概念和思维，同时为自己以后发展积累庞大的人脉！应该说这才是前途的真正支柱！！！
〔７〕逐渐克服自己的心里弱点和性格缺陷！多疑，敏感，天真（贬义，并不可爱），犹豫不决，胆怯，多虑，脸皮太薄，心不够黑，教条式思维。。。这些工程师普遍存在的性格弱点必须改变！很难吗？只在床上想一想当然不可能，去帮朋友守一个月地摊，包准有效果，去实践，而不要只想！不克服这些缺点，一切不可能，甚至连项目经理都当不好－－尽管你可能技术不错！
〔８〕工作的同时要为以后做准备！建立自己的工作环境！及早为自己配置一个工作环境，装备电脑，示波器（可以买个二手的），仿真器，编程器等，业余可以接点活，一方面接触市场，培养市场感觉，同时也积累资金，更重要的是准备自己的产品，咱搞技术的没有钱，只有技术，技术的代表不是学历和证书，而是产品，拿出象样的产品，就可技术转让或与人合作搞企业！先把东西准备好，等待机会，否则，有了机会也抓不住！
〔９〕要学会善于推销自己！不仅要能干，还要能说，能写，善于利用一切机会推销自己，树立自己的品牌形象，很必要！要创造条件让别人了解自己，不然老板怎么知道你能干？外面的投资人怎么相信你？提早把自己推销出去，机会自然会来找你！搞个个人主页是个好注意！！特别是培养自己在行业的名气，有了名气，高薪机会自不在话下，更重要的是有合作的机会 。
〔１０〕该出手时便出手！永远不可能有１００％把握！！！条件差不多就要大胆去干，去闯出自己的事业，不要犹豫，不要彷徨，干了不一定成功，但至少为下一次冲击积累了经验，不干永远没出息，而且要干成必然要经历失败。不经历风雨，怎么见彩虹，没有人能随随便便成功！
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作者：百草园 留言时间：2009-12-07 21:32:49
以栋，你转帖的这篇文章非常中肯，确确实实是说出美国工作的真韵，也道出了许多中国人在这儿的毛病。
作者：栀子花开 留言时间：2009-12-07 22:27:42
以栋，
这些忠告很有指导作用。其实不单是在美国，在任何地方，技术过硬只是一个方面，更重要的要善于与各种人打交道，人气旺了才好办事。
作者：天宇 留言时间：2009-12-08 00:44:39
以栋，好文章，尤其赞赏第一点。我深有体会。
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2009-12-08 20:45:42
百草园:
Thanks. I hope we could understand something from it.
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2009-12-08 20:46:43
栀子花开:
Thanks.
You are right.To deal with people is a key skill set.
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2009-12-08 20:47:36
天宇:
Thanks. I think these advices have value too.
作者：在水一方 留言时间：2009-12-08 21:42:15
好文章,对马上要工作的儿子来说更应该读一读,一定转发给他.谢谢分享好文章.
作者：水柔石刚 留言时间：2010-01-18 10:24:11
这一篇转得确实不错。从你的其他文中，也能学到很多东西。你很有阅历经验。
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2010-01-20 21:20:30
水柔石刚:
Thanks.
Best wishes in the New Year!
作者：ijk123 留言时间：2010-03-24 07:38:31
This is prevailing American thinking, MBA > Engineer.
Management can do without knowledge of the details.
This is "Laymen leads Experts" system. After several decades workig in the US, I totally disagree with the system.
It will change, Still "knowledge is power". Perseverance is important.
In US lots BS, talking; few people can produce good work. The problem is multiplying everyday.
Don't let the MBA's fool you.
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2010-03-25 22:13:44
ijk123:
I think the author made good points.
I think instead of comparing expert with MBA, how about expert plus MBA?
给年轻工程师的十大忠告
美国老工程师
我在网上花了很多时间，学到很多知识。这是我以前看过的一篇文章，看了感触很深，就保存下来。现在放在这里，与大家分享，也等着原作者领回版权。----刘以栋
诸位，咱当电子工程师也已十余年了，不算有出息，环顾四周，也没有看见几个有出息的！回顾工程师生涯，感慨万千，愿意讲几句掏心窝子的话，也算给咱们师弟师妹们提个醒，希望他们比咱们强！
〔１〕好好规划自己的路，不要跟著感觉走！根据个人的理想决策安排，绝大部分人并不指望成为什么院士或教授，而是希望活得滋润一些，爽一些。那么，就需要慎重安排自己的轨迹。从哪个行业入手，逐渐对该行业深入了解，不要频繁跳槽，特别是不要为了一点工资而转移阵地，从长远看，这点钱根本不算什么，当你对一个行业有那么几年的体会，以后钱根本不是问题。频繁地动荡不是上策，最后你对哪个行业都没有摸透，永远是新手！
〔２〕可以做技术，切不可沉湎于技术。千万不可一门心思钻研技术！给自己很大压力，如果你的心思全部放在这上面，那么注定你将成为孔乙己一类的人物！适可而止为之，因为技术只不过是你今后前途的支柱之一，而且还不是最大的支柱，除非你只愿意到老还是个工程师！
〔３〕不要去做技术高手，只去做综合素质高手！在企业里混，我们时常瞧不起某人，说他“什么都不懂，凭啥拿那么多钱，凭啥升官！”这是普遍的典型的工程师的迂腐之言。你很牛吗？人家能上去必然有他的本事，而且是你没有的本事。你想想，老板搞经营那么多年，难道见识不如你这个新兵？人家或许善于管理，善于领会老板意图，善于部门协调等等。因此务必培养自己多方面的能力，包括管理，亲和力，察言观色能力，攻关能力等，要成为综合素质的高手，则前途无量，否则只能躲在角落看示波器！技术以外的技能才是更重要的本事！！从古到今，美国日本，一律如此！
〔４〕多交社会三教九流的朋友！不要只和工程师交往，认为有共同语言，其实更重要的是和其他类人物交往，如果你希望有朝一日当老板或高层管理，那么你整日面对的就是这些人。了解他们的经历，思维习惯，爱好，学习他们处理问题的模式，了解社会各个角落的现象和问题，这是以后发展的巨大的本钱，没有这些以后就会笨手笨脚，跌跌撞撞，遇到重重困难，交不少学费，成功的概率大大降低！
〔５〕知识涉猎不一定专，但一定要广！多看看其他方面的书，金融，财会，进出口，税务，法律等等，为以后做一些积累，以后的用处会更大！会少交许多学费！！
〔６〕抓住时机向技术管理或市场销售方面的转变！要想有前途就不能一直搞开发，适当时候要转变为管理或销售，前途会更大，以前搞技术也没有白搞，以后还用得著。搞管理可以培养自己的领导能力，搞销售可以培养自己的市场概念和思维，同时为自己以后发展积累庞大的人脉！应该说这才是前途的真正支柱！！！
〔７〕逐渐克服自己的心里弱点和性格缺陷！多疑，敏感，天真（贬义，并不可爱），犹豫不决，胆怯，多虑，脸皮太薄，心不够黑，教条式思维。。。这些工程师普遍存在的性格弱点必须改变！很难吗？只在床上想一想当然不可能，去帮朋友守一个月地摊，包准有效果，去实践，而不要只想！不克服这些缺点，一切不可能，甚至连项目经理都当不好－－尽管你可能技术不错！
〔８〕工作的同时要为以后做准备！建立自己的工作环境！及早为自己配置一个工作环境，装备电脑，示波器（可以买个二手的），仿真器，编程器等，业余可以接点活，一方面接触市场，培养市场感觉，同时也积累资金，更重要的是准备自己的产品，咱搞技术的没有钱，只有技术，技术的代表不是学历和证书，而是产品，拿出象样的产品，就可技术转让或与人合作搞企业！先把东西准备好，等待机会，否则，有了机会也抓不住！
〔９〕要学会善于推销自己！不仅要能干，还要能说，能写，善于利用一切机会推销自己，树立自己的品牌形象，很必要！要创造条件让别人了解自己，不然老板怎么知道你能干？外面的投资人怎么相信你？提早把自己推销出去，机会自然会来找你！搞个个人主页是个好注意！！特别是培养自己在行业的名气，有了名气，高薪机会自不在话下，更重要的是有合作的机会 。
〔１０〕该出手时便出手！永远不可能有１００％把握！！！条件差不多就要大胆去干，去闯出自己的事业，不要犹豫，不要彷徨，干了不一定成功，但至少为下一次冲击积累了经验，不干永远没出息，而且要干成必然要经历失败。不经历风雨，怎么见彩虹，没有人能随随便便成功！
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文章评论
作者：百草园 留言时间：2009-12-07 21:32:49
以栋，你转帖的这篇文章非常中肯，确确实实是说出美国工作的真韵，也道出了许多中国人在这儿的毛病。
作者：栀子花开 留言时间：2009-12-07 22:27:42
以栋，
这些忠告很有指导作用。其实不单是在美国，在任何地方，技术过硬只是一个方面，更重要的要善于与各种人打交道，人气旺了才好办事。
作者：天宇 留言时间：2009-12-08 00:44:39
以栋，好文章，尤其赞赏第一点。我深有体会。
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2009-12-08 20:45:42
百草园:
Thanks. I hope we could understand something from it.
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2009-12-08 20:46:43
栀子花开:
Thanks.
You are right.To deal with people is a key skill set.
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2009-12-08 20:47:36
天宇:
Thanks. I think these advices have value too.
作者：在水一方 留言时间：2009-12-08 21:42:15
好文章,对马上要工作的儿子来说更应该读一读,一定转发给他.谢谢分享好文章.
作者：水柔石刚 留言时间：2010-01-18 10:24:11
这一篇转得确实不错。从你的其他文中，也能学到很多东西。你很有阅历经验。
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2010-01-20 21:20:30
水柔石刚:
Thanks.
Best wishes in the New Year!
作者：ijk123 留言时间：2010-03-24 07:38:31
This is prevailing American thinking, MBA > Engineer.
Management can do without knowledge of the details.
This is "Laymen leads Experts" system. After several decades workig in the US, I totally disagree with the system.
It will change, Still "knowledge is power". Perseverance is important.
In US lots BS, talking; few people can produce good work. The problem is multiplying everyday.
Don't let the MBA's fool you.
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2010-03-25 22:13:44
ijk123:
I think the author made good points.
I think instead of comparing expert with MBA, how about expert plus MBA?
一条美国人的炒股经验
http://blog.creaders.net/xiangshui/user_blog_diary.php?did=61920
一条美国人的炒股经验
刘以栋
关于股票投资的书非常多，要想把它们都读懂几乎是不可能的。或许每个作者都有自己的道理，但他们的观点不可能都正确，否则大家都炒股赚钱，钱从哪里来。
美国股票市场历史比中国股票市场历史长一些，所以也经常看到、听到美国人的股票投资经验。巴菲特说，股票投资经验有两条：第一条，不赔钱，第二条，就是记住第一条。我认为他的观点是正确的，但问题是他的经验很难去实施。
股票市场的投资经验有时是相互矛盾的。股票疯长时，买方说，跟着大势走，大势是你的朋友，牛市不言顶；卖方说，树不可能长到天上去，股市泡沫迟早要破，赶快卖了套现。股票狂跌时，买方说，低点才是买的时候，股市迟早要回来；卖方说，熊市不言底，现在买股无异去接飞落的刀子，应当卖了止损。看着电视里的专业人士在那里振振有词，不知道观众该怎么想。
我个人认为，股票市场长期增长时，象一九八二年到一九九九年，长期持有的买方一般会赚钱。股票市场暴跌时，象2007年到2009年，卖方会赚钱。读者朋友自然会问，那么现在是什么情况呢？老实讲，我不知道。但我认为未来几年股票市场会动荡得厉害，所以想在这里介绍一条美国人的炒股经验，供大家参考。
美国人的这条经验是，选一个你喜欢的股票指数，跟踪它的走势。当它从上一次的高点跌幅超过10%时，就开始买股票；当它再跌10%时，再追加。以此类推。这里要强调一下，这里的每次10%跌幅都以刚开始的基数为准。在这种情况下，指数在十次追加后变为零。要记住，这里用的是指数，不是单股，所以除非世界末日来临，股指不容易变成零。
卖的经验跟买相反。用相同的股指，当它从前一个低点上升20%时，则开始卖。当它再升20%时，再卖。买卖速度大家自己定，买卖什么股票也由大家自己选择，10%和20%也是随意取的，但基本原理就是如此，并且一旦自己定下标准以后，最好能执行。
这种炒股经验的优点在于，它剥离了人在股市中的情绪化因素。涨了，我卖；跌了，我买。买点不一定是最低点，但总是一个低点；卖点不一定是最高点，但也时一个高点。
根据这条经验，去年三月初到现在产生了许多卖点，而现在则应是买点……
我个人认为，炒股很难赚钱，也很辛苦，但在股票长期持有受到严峻挑战的今天，大家都想着炒股，所以把这条经验介绍给大家。你是否能通过此经验赚钱，我概不负债。
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作者：幸福剧团 留言时间：2010-05-26 05:53:47
咳咳，这难日子也得过，继续炒吧。
谢谢分享。
作者：欧阳峰 留言时间：2010-05-26 13:08:31
很有意思，谢谢介绍！
其实这个策略的想法与赌博中每次输了就把赌注加倍的策略有相通之处，都是大概率地小赢，小概率地大输。比如，如果在2000年用这个策略对待NASDAQ的话，十年后的今天还没翻回本呢。所以以栋兄说的：“我认为未来几年股票市场会动荡得厉害”是一个很重要的前提。只有认同这个前提，才能采取这个策略。
另一个值得考虑的因素是：如果股市波动很厉害的话，这样的交易策略会导致很频繁的买卖，从而带来高额的交易费用。
其实还有一个更简单的策略叫Dollar Cost Averaging，也就是每个月都花同样的钱去买股票。这样价格低的时候自然就多买了股数。它的原理和前提也是一样的，当然细节上有很多不同。
一条美国人的炒股经验
刘以栋
关于股票投资的书非常多，要想把它们都读懂几乎是不可能的。或许每个作者都有自己的道理，但他们的观点不可能都正确，否则大家都炒股赚钱，钱从哪里来。
美国股票市场历史比中国股票市场历史长一些，所以也经常看到、听到美国人的股票投资经验。巴菲特说，股票投资经验有两条：第一条，不赔钱，第二条，就是记住第一条。我认为他的观点是正确的，但问题是他的经验很难去实施。
股票市场的投资经验有时是相互矛盾的。股票疯长时，买方说，跟着大势走，大势是你的朋友，牛市不言顶；卖方说，树不可能长到天上去，股市泡沫迟早要破，赶快卖了套现。股票狂跌时，买方说，低点才是买的时候，股市迟早要回来；卖方说，熊市不言底，现在买股无异去接飞落的刀子，应当卖了止损。看着电视里的专业人士在那里振振有词，不知道观众该怎么想。
我个人认为，股票市场长期增长时，象一九八二年到一九九九年，长期持有的买方一般会赚钱。股票市场暴跌时，象2007年到2009年，卖方会赚钱。读者朋友自然会问，那么现在是什么情况呢？老实讲，我不知道。但我认为未来几年股票市场会动荡得厉害，所以想在这里介绍一条美国人的炒股经验，供大家参考。
美国人的这条经验是，选一个你喜欢的股票指数，跟踪它的走势。当它从上一次的高点跌幅超过10%时，就开始买股票；当它再跌10%时，再追加。以此类推。这里要强调一下，这里的每次10%跌幅都以刚开始的基数为准。在这种情况下，指数在十次追加后变为零。要记住，这里用的是指数，不是单股，所以除非世界末日来临，股指不容易变成零。
卖的经验跟买相反。用相同的股指，当它从前一个低点上升20%时，则开始卖。当它再升20%时，再卖。买卖速度大家自己定，买卖什么股票也由大家自己选择，10%和20%也是随意取的，但基本原理就是如此，并且一旦自己定下标准以后，最好能执行。
这种炒股经验的优点在于，它剥离了人在股市中的情绪化因素。涨了，我卖；跌了，我买。买点不一定是最低点，但总是一个低点；卖点不一定是最高点，但也时一个高点。
根据这条经验，去年三月初到现在产生了许多卖点，而现在则应是买点……
我个人认为，炒股很难赚钱，也很辛苦，但在股票长期持有受到严峻挑战的今天，大家都想着炒股，所以把这条经验介绍给大家。你是否能通过此经验赚钱，我概不负债。
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作者：幸福剧团 留言时间：2010-05-26 05:53:47
咳咳，这难日子也得过，继续炒吧。
谢谢分享。
作者：欧阳峰 留言时间：2010-05-26 13:08:31
很有意思，谢谢介绍！
其实这个策略的想法与赌博中每次输了就把赌注加倍的策略有相通之处，都是大概率地小赢，小概率地大输。比如，如果在2000年用这个策略对待NASDAQ的话，十年后的今天还没翻回本呢。所以以栋兄说的：“我认为未来几年股票市场会动荡得厉害”是一个很重要的前提。只有认同这个前提，才能采取这个策略。
另一个值得考虑的因素是：如果股市波动很厉害的话，这样的交易策略会导致很频繁的买卖，从而带来高额的交易费用。
其实还有一个更简单的策略叫Dollar Cost Averaging，也就是每个月都花同样的钱去买股票。这样价格低的时候自然就多买了股数。它的原理和前提也是一样的，当然细节上有很多不同。
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
谢国忠：中国股市已成穷人赌场 楼市崩盘才会好转
谢国忠：中国股市已成穷人赌场 楼市崩盘才会好转
来源：《新世纪》-财新网 2010年05月26日06:54
http://stock.sohu.com/20100526/n272347207.shtml
（重磅推荐）就事论势第2期:T+0 通往赌市之路
股市的P/B约为2.5倍，已处历史低位，为什么仍在往下走？有钱人已经不在股市玩了，他们转去了楼市；只有楼市崩盘，股市才会好一些。
【财新网】(专栏作家 谢国忠)我家附近有个酒吧，最近，酒吧的一位服务生问我，上海股市最近表现怎样？我回答说，现在大约在2600点。他当即跳了起来，说：“不会吧！政府怎会让股市跌成这样？”
接下来的10分钟，他试图说服我，未来三到五年内，政府将让股指升到8000点。
“看看港股，现在可是20000点，”他说，“上海股市涨到8000点一点都不稀奇。”
中国股市有1.24亿个交易账户，就投资者数量而言，比世界上其他股市都要多。据我了解，投资者的整体热情仍旧非常高。股票市值目前不大，只占GDP的53%，占货币供应量的31%。P/B(股价/账面值)约为2.5倍，已处于历史低位。股市为什么仍在往下走？
中央政府引入调控楼市的措施后，许多人满怀希望，以为从楼市流出的资金将流入股市。流行的悠悠球理论告诉人们，资金只在楼市和股市之间来回旅行，不会跑去别的地方。现在，楼市没有下滑多少，而股市却大跌了20%。
软着陆
中国股市由政治和流动性推动，但目前两者都没啥好消息。虽然政府更希望楼市实现软着陆，但对楼市泡沫的争论已经结束，紧缩已成共识，问题只在于调控的节奏是紧还是松。在政府挤压楼市的流动性时，股市的流动性受到影响也是不可避免的。两个市场都下调。
股市向下调整与楼市调控直接相关。对于各个行业，尤其是金融业，房地产升值其实是最大的利润来源。房屋存量、在建工程和土地储备的价值，可能已超过GDP的3倍。楼价升20%，增加的价值相当于GDP的60%。
在正常的经济体里，企业利润一般为GDP的10%。当资产增值达到企业利润的6倍，企业就会玩财务游戏，将资产增值转化为会计上的利润。当楼价停止上升，甚至下降，非常赚钱的公司会突然间变的无利可图。
银行股
国有银行正排队等着在股市筹集5000亿元人民币的资金。虽然三分之二将在香港筹集，但余下的三分之一对于A股市场来说仍是一个大负担。2009年全年，A股市场的融资额是4560亿元。
银行在平时是一部赚钱机器，但说不定哪天，他们会突然把以前赚的钱全亏光。银行业危机之后，其实是购买银行股的好时机。但银行为应对楼市调整而筹集这么多资金时，可能不是买进银行股的好时机。
合理估值从来都不是支持进入中国股市的理由。不过，现在中国股市的估值合理了。2.5倍的P／B谈不上便宜，但按国际标准看已处合理水平。我劝你对市盈率不要过多关注。市盈率已经被资产泡沫严重扭曲了。估值的下降，可能只是回归正常的一个阶段。
过去很长一段时间，中国许多股票的可流通部分比例很小，有点像互联网公司的股票。经过股改，所有股票都可以流通了。由于没有了非流通股在场外市场以折扣价交易，中国股市的估值正回归正常。这是一个进步。结论是：上海股市不会很快恢复到其鼎盛时期的6000 点。这会让许多人失望。
市场崩盘
有钱人已经不在股市玩了，他们转去了楼市。绝大多数人相信楼价只涨不跌。今天玩楼市的人并没有经历过1997年的楼市崩盘。
另一边厢，股市在2007年－2008年经历过一次崩盘，一年间，从6000点跌到1700点以下。那些能够炒得起房的人发现股市是一个坏地方。这就是为何自2007年以来楼市总是红火，而股市却一直在挣扎。当然，如果楼价能像2007年的股市那样大跌，股市的境况会好一些。
中国的股民往往没钱去炒大城市的房子。他们寄望于能有足够的运气，赚够多的钱，然后转去楼市作战。股价升到一定时候，这些人就会跑掉，限制股市升值；股市下跌时，这些人也不会成为股价的支撑力量。
最后，酒吧的服务生让我推荐一只股票。他说，他已经有了7万元，希望赚到足够的钱去买一辆车。
“光靠我的收入买不了车，”他说，“你看我的工作有多辛苦。但如果我在股市赚到20万，我就能买一辆好车。”
只要楼市不崩盘，普通投资者最好不要奢望从中国股市里赚到免费午餐和新汽车。■
(作者为玫瑰石顾问公司董事，本文的英文版首先发表于彭博社，财新记者汪苏、陈璐译；未经许可，不得转载；如转载，须注明来自财新网，并注明译者。)
来源：《新世纪》-财新网 2010年05月26日06:54
http://stock.sohu.com/20100526/n272347207.shtml
（重磅推荐）就事论势第2期:T+0 通往赌市之路
股市的P/B约为2.5倍，已处历史低位，为什么仍在往下走？有钱人已经不在股市玩了，他们转去了楼市；只有楼市崩盘，股市才会好一些。
【财新网】(专栏作家 谢国忠)我家附近有个酒吧，最近，酒吧的一位服务生问我，上海股市最近表现怎样？我回答说，现在大约在2600点。他当即跳了起来，说：“不会吧！政府怎会让股市跌成这样？”
接下来的10分钟，他试图说服我，未来三到五年内，政府将让股指升到8000点。
“看看港股，现在可是20000点，”他说，“上海股市涨到8000点一点都不稀奇。”
中国股市有1.24亿个交易账户，就投资者数量而言，比世界上其他股市都要多。据我了解，投资者的整体热情仍旧非常高。股票市值目前不大，只占GDP的53%，占货币供应量的31%。P/B(股价/账面值)约为2.5倍，已处于历史低位。股市为什么仍在往下走？
中央政府引入调控楼市的措施后，许多人满怀希望，以为从楼市流出的资金将流入股市。流行的悠悠球理论告诉人们，资金只在楼市和股市之间来回旅行，不会跑去别的地方。现在，楼市没有下滑多少，而股市却大跌了20%。
软着陆
中国股市由政治和流动性推动，但目前两者都没啥好消息。虽然政府更希望楼市实现软着陆，但对楼市泡沫的争论已经结束，紧缩已成共识，问题只在于调控的节奏是紧还是松。在政府挤压楼市的流动性时，股市的流动性受到影响也是不可避免的。两个市场都下调。
股市向下调整与楼市调控直接相关。对于各个行业，尤其是金融业，房地产升值其实是最大的利润来源。房屋存量、在建工程和土地储备的价值，可能已超过GDP的3倍。楼价升20%，增加的价值相当于GDP的60%。
在正常的经济体里，企业利润一般为GDP的10%。当资产增值达到企业利润的6倍，企业就会玩财务游戏，将资产增值转化为会计上的利润。当楼价停止上升，甚至下降，非常赚钱的公司会突然间变的无利可图。
银行股
国有银行正排队等着在股市筹集5000亿元人民币的资金。虽然三分之二将在香港筹集，但余下的三分之一对于A股市场来说仍是一个大负担。2009年全年，A股市场的融资额是4560亿元。
银行在平时是一部赚钱机器，但说不定哪天，他们会突然把以前赚的钱全亏光。银行业危机之后，其实是购买银行股的好时机。但银行为应对楼市调整而筹集这么多资金时，可能不是买进银行股的好时机。
合理估值从来都不是支持进入中国股市的理由。不过，现在中国股市的估值合理了。2.5倍的P／B谈不上便宜，但按国际标准看已处合理水平。我劝你对市盈率不要过多关注。市盈率已经被资产泡沫严重扭曲了。估值的下降，可能只是回归正常的一个阶段。
过去很长一段时间，中国许多股票的可流通部分比例很小，有点像互联网公司的股票。经过股改，所有股票都可以流通了。由于没有了非流通股在场外市场以折扣价交易，中国股市的估值正回归正常。这是一个进步。结论是：上海股市不会很快恢复到其鼎盛时期的6000 点。这会让许多人失望。
市场崩盘
有钱人已经不在股市玩了，他们转去了楼市。绝大多数人相信楼价只涨不跌。今天玩楼市的人并没有经历过1997年的楼市崩盘。
另一边厢，股市在2007年－2008年经历过一次崩盘，一年间，从6000点跌到1700点以下。那些能够炒得起房的人发现股市是一个坏地方。这就是为何自2007年以来楼市总是红火，而股市却一直在挣扎。当然，如果楼价能像2007年的股市那样大跌，股市的境况会好一些。
中国的股民往往没钱去炒大城市的房子。他们寄望于能有足够的运气，赚够多的钱，然后转去楼市作战。股价升到一定时候，这些人就会跑掉，限制股市升值；股市下跌时，这些人也不会成为股价的支撑力量。
最后，酒吧的服务生让我推荐一只股票。他说，他已经有了7万元，希望赚到足够的钱去买一辆车。
“光靠我的收入买不了车，”他说，“你看我的工作有多辛苦。但如果我在股市赚到20万，我就能买一辆好车。”
只要楼市不崩盘，普通投资者最好不要奢望从中国股市里赚到免费午餐和新汽车。■
(作者为玫瑰石顾问公司董事，本文的英文版首先发表于彭博社，财新记者汪苏、陈璐译；未经许可，不得转载；如转载，须注明来自财新网，并注明译者。)
Falling home prices stir fears of new bottom
Falling home prices stir fears of new bottom
Home prices fall 0.5 percent from February to March, raising fears of a new bottom
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Falling-home-prices-stir-apf-2074462944.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
In this photo taken Monday, May 24, 2010, a sold home is shown in Palo Alto, Calif. Home prices fell in March from the previous month, signaling that temporary tax credits for buyers weren't enough to buoy the housing market.(AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
J.W. Elphinstone, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday May 25, 2010, 4:44 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- The housing slump isn't over.
Tax credits and historically low mortgage rates have failed to lift home prices so far this year. Prices fell 0.5 percent in March from February, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday.
That marks six straight months of declines -- a sign that the housing market is going in reverse.
"It looks a little like a double-dip already," economist Robert Shiller said in an interview. "There is a very real possibility of some more decline."
The co-creator of the Case-Shiller index, who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst, says he worries that home prices rose last year only because of the federal tax credits. That fear is shared by other economists. They note that weak job growth, tight credit and millions more foreclosures ahead will weigh on the home market.
All that is discouraging for homeowners who have seen the value of their largest asset deteriorate sharply over the past three years. Falling home prices tend to curtail consumer spending. And they make it harder for struggling borrowers to refinance into an affordable home loan.
Prices in 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index fell. Only six metro areas recorded price gains. One, Boston, came in flat.
In the first quarter of 2010, U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent compared with the fourth quarter.
The numbers are especially disturbing because they show that improved sales due to the tax credits didn't translate into higher prices, said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P index committee.
Still, falling home prices haven't kept many consumers from maintaining their optimism about the economy.
A separate report Tuesday showed consumer confidence rose in May for the third straight month as hopes for job growth improved. The increase in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was boosted by consumers' brighter outlook for the next six months.
In a healthier economy, extraordinarily low mortgage rates would pump up demand for homes. But employers aren't creating new jobs fast enough and loans are harder to come by for small businesses and individuals.
On Monday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes rose 7.6 percent in April. But the sales were aided by the government incentives that have now expired. Economists don't expect the improvements to last.
New buyers were offered a credit worth up to $8,000. Current owners who bought and moved into another home could get a credit for up to $6,500. To receive them, buyers had to have a signed offer by April 30 and must close by the end of June.
Shiller and other economists worry that prices could fall below the levels of April 2009. That was the lowest point since the peak in July 2006.
IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport forecasts prices will fall an additional 6 percent to 8 percent and bottom out in the third quarter of next year. Newport said the glut of homes on the market is the main reason. But he's also worried about the rate of foreclosures.
"When banks foreclose, they sell the properties at deep discounts," Newport said. "Foreclosures have either peaked in the first quarter or are going to peak soon, but they will remain very high for several years."
Mortgage delinquencies reached a record high in the first quarter. More than 10 percent of homeowners with a mortgage missed at least one payment from January through March, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week.
Since 2006, nearly 5 million homes have been lost to foreclosures or other distressed sales, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Zandi expects 3 million more to hit the market over the next two years.
Zandi noted that 15 million homeowners still owe more than their homes are worth. And 26 million Americans are either unemployed or underemployed. The underemployed include people who have given up looking for work and part-timers who would prefer to be working full time.
"It's a lethal mix," Zandi said.
Home prices fall 0.5 percent from February to March, raising fears of a new bottom
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Falling-home-prices-stir-apf-2074462944.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
In this photo taken Monday, May 24, 2010, a sold home is shown in Palo Alto, Calif. Home prices fell in March from the previous month, signaling that temporary tax credits for buyers weren't enough to buoy the housing market.(AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
J.W. Elphinstone, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday May 25, 2010, 4:44 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- The housing slump isn't over.
Tax credits and historically low mortgage rates have failed to lift home prices so far this year. Prices fell 0.5 percent in March from February, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday.
That marks six straight months of declines -- a sign that the housing market is going in reverse.
"It looks a little like a double-dip already," economist Robert Shiller said in an interview. "There is a very real possibility of some more decline."
The co-creator of the Case-Shiller index, who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst, says he worries that home prices rose last year only because of the federal tax credits. That fear is shared by other economists. They note that weak job growth, tight credit and millions more foreclosures ahead will weigh on the home market.
All that is discouraging for homeowners who have seen the value of their largest asset deteriorate sharply over the past three years. Falling home prices tend to curtail consumer spending. And they make it harder for struggling borrowers to refinance into an affordable home loan.
Prices in 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index fell. Only six metro areas recorded price gains. One, Boston, came in flat.
In the first quarter of 2010, U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent compared with the fourth quarter.
The numbers are especially disturbing because they show that improved sales due to the tax credits didn't translate into higher prices, said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P index committee.
Still, falling home prices haven't kept many consumers from maintaining their optimism about the economy.
A separate report Tuesday showed consumer confidence rose in May for the third straight month as hopes for job growth improved. The increase in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was boosted by consumers' brighter outlook for the next six months.
In a healthier economy, extraordinarily low mortgage rates would pump up demand for homes. But employers aren't creating new jobs fast enough and loans are harder to come by for small businesses and individuals.
On Monday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes rose 7.6 percent in April. But the sales were aided by the government incentives that have now expired. Economists don't expect the improvements to last.
New buyers were offered a credit worth up to $8,000. Current owners who bought and moved into another home could get a credit for up to $6,500. To receive them, buyers had to have a signed offer by April 30 and must close by the end of June.
Shiller and other economists worry that prices could fall below the levels of April 2009. That was the lowest point since the peak in July 2006.
IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport forecasts prices will fall an additional 6 percent to 8 percent and bottom out in the third quarter of next year. Newport said the glut of homes on the market is the main reason. But he's also worried about the rate of foreclosures.
"When banks foreclose, they sell the properties at deep discounts," Newport said. "Foreclosures have either peaked in the first quarter or are going to peak soon, but they will remain very high for several years."
Mortgage delinquencies reached a record high in the first quarter. More than 10 percent of homeowners with a mortgage missed at least one payment from January through March, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week.
Since 2006, nearly 5 million homes have been lost to foreclosures or other distressed sales, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Zandi expects 3 million more to hit the market over the next two years.
Zandi noted that 15 million homeowners still owe more than their homes are worth. And 26 million Americans are either unemployed or underemployed. The underemployed include people who have given up looking for work and part-timers who would prefer to be working full time.
"It's a lethal mix," Zandi said.
Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
by Christopher Wood
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
provided by
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109634/dont-rule-out-a-double-dip-recession?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
In addition to Europe's woes, we have slower growth in China and a decline in bank lending and the velocity of money in the U.S.
World financial markets reacted bearishly to Germany's surprise announcement last week banning "naked" short-selling of euro-zone government debt, derivatives and some financial stocks. Short selling is considered naked when it involves the sale of an asset that isn't owned by the seller and isn't borrowed to cover the position while it's held. The news disturbed investors because of the unilateral nature of Germany's action. It's also seen as a potential prelude to other antimarket actions from Germany, or for that matter the U.S. and other Western nations, where the political backlash against free markets continues.
Also causing anxiety is the ominous rise in recent weeks in the three-month London interbank offered rate (Libor), the rate the most creditworthy banks charge each other for loans. This could result in yet another European credit crisis with banks becoming increasingly unwilling to lend to each other because of the interconnected holdings of "junk" European government debt. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data shows that European bank exposure to sovereign debt in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain totalled $2.8 trillion at the end of last year, accounting for 89% of international banks' total exposure to those countries.
Moving beyond Europe, a further negative for investors to contend with has been China's current tightening cycle; most particularly a machine-gun burst of antispeculation measures in the past two months aimed at its booming residential property market. China's leadership, worried by growing social concerns about unaffordable apartment prices, will want to see official confirmation that both residential property transactions and residential property prices are falling, as indeed is now the case. Transaction volumes are down more than 50% from the levels reached in the first half of April. Prices will soon follow.
An easing in policy toward housing by Beijing is unlikely until the end of the third quarter, though an earlier U-turn on policy is plausible in the event of a complete blowup in Europe. For this would reactivate Beijing's concerns about its business abroad. When the green light is turned on again, whenever that may be, all the empirical evidence suggests that this will translate into renewed demand for residential properties—as was also the case at the beginning of 2009, which was the last time the policy was reversed.
China's woes have served to aggravate the concerns of investors who are already negatively focused on Europe, where the Greek crisis has revealed the critical fault line of the euro-zone—namely the difficulty of having monetary union without political union.
Meanwhile, the fundamental trend in the West remains profoundly deflationary. Last week the U.S. government reported that the country's core consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate slid in April to its lowest level in 44 years.
It is also the case that, if the U.S. headline CPI remains flat from May onwards, the year-on-year headline CPI inflation rate will then fall to 1.4% in June and zero by January from 2.2% in April. This trend will reawaken deflationary concerns prompting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to keep interest rates at zero.
Or consider Ireland, which has suffered an astonishing 16 consecutive months of price deflation. The Irish CPI fell by 2.1% year-on-year in April. This deflation action is beginning to make Japan's experience of the past 20 years look like a picnic because Ireland, unlike Japan in the 1990s, remains in fiscal contraction mode. Thus, the Irish government aims to reduce its deficit to 10% of GDP in 2011 and then to 2.9% in 2014 from 14.3% last year
Others in the euro-zone will surely follow. Spain has potentially a huge deflationary cycle to endure given its level of consumer leverage and the degree of anticipated fiscal tightening. Spain's household debt-to-GDP ratio was 83% at the end of 2009, and Spain has to refinance €165 billion of maturing government debt by the end of 2011.
For the moment Spain has only just sunk into outright price deflation. Spanish core CPI, which excludes unprocessed food and energy products, fell by 0.1% year on year in April. This is the first core CPI deflation in Spain since the data series began in August 1986. But the pattern looks set to endure, and this is in a country that already has 20% unemployment.
Meanwhile, in America bank lending continues to decline as does the velocity of money in circulation. If this persists, markets will face worryingly low GDP growth in the U.S. going into 2011. It's this prospect that's begun to be discounted in the recent stock-market correction, which has already seen the S&P 500 give up all its gains for the year. This will sooner or later pave the way for another round of fiscal easing in Washington when both the Obama administration and Congress give up on their current hopes of a normal U.S. recovery.
That political mood swing will again raise the protectionist risk in Washington, with the lightning rod being the Chinese exchange rate. Beijing has been signaling that it will resume incremental appreciation of the renminbi by the middle of this year. But with the renminbi having appreciated by 24% against the euro since late November, China's leaders may be having second thoughts. A trade row between China and the U.S. on top of the growing concerns about a "double dip" in the West is the last thing markets will want to contend with. But they may have to.
Mr. Wood, equity strategist for CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong, is the author of "The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the '80s and the Dramatic Bust of the '90s" (Solstice Publishing, 2005).
by Christopher Wood
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
provided by
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109634/dont-rule-out-a-double-dip-recession?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
In addition to Europe's woes, we have slower growth in China and a decline in bank lending and the velocity of money in the U.S.
World financial markets reacted bearishly to Germany's surprise announcement last week banning "naked" short-selling of euro-zone government debt, derivatives and some financial stocks. Short selling is considered naked when it involves the sale of an asset that isn't owned by the seller and isn't borrowed to cover the position while it's held. The news disturbed investors because of the unilateral nature of Germany's action. It's also seen as a potential prelude to other antimarket actions from Germany, or for that matter the U.S. and other Western nations, where the political backlash against free markets continues.
Also causing anxiety is the ominous rise in recent weeks in the three-month London interbank offered rate (Libor), the rate the most creditworthy banks charge each other for loans. This could result in yet another European credit crisis with banks becoming increasingly unwilling to lend to each other because of the interconnected holdings of "junk" European government debt. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data shows that European bank exposure to sovereign debt in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain totalled $2.8 trillion at the end of last year, accounting for 89% of international banks' total exposure to those countries.
Moving beyond Europe, a further negative for investors to contend with has been China's current tightening cycle; most particularly a machine-gun burst of antispeculation measures in the past two months aimed at its booming residential property market. China's leadership, worried by growing social concerns about unaffordable apartment prices, will want to see official confirmation that both residential property transactions and residential property prices are falling, as indeed is now the case. Transaction volumes are down more than 50% from the levels reached in the first half of April. Prices will soon follow.
An easing in policy toward housing by Beijing is unlikely until the end of the third quarter, though an earlier U-turn on policy is plausible in the event of a complete blowup in Europe. For this would reactivate Beijing's concerns about its business abroad. When the green light is turned on again, whenever that may be, all the empirical evidence suggests that this will translate into renewed demand for residential properties—as was also the case at the beginning of 2009, which was the last time the policy was reversed.
China's woes have served to aggravate the concerns of investors who are already negatively focused on Europe, where the Greek crisis has revealed the critical fault line of the euro-zone—namely the difficulty of having monetary union without political union.
Meanwhile, the fundamental trend in the West remains profoundly deflationary. Last week the U.S. government reported that the country's core consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate slid in April to its lowest level in 44 years.
It is also the case that, if the U.S. headline CPI remains flat from May onwards, the year-on-year headline CPI inflation rate will then fall to 1.4% in June and zero by January from 2.2% in April. This trend will reawaken deflationary concerns prompting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to keep interest rates at zero.
Or consider Ireland, which has suffered an astonishing 16 consecutive months of price deflation. The Irish CPI fell by 2.1% year-on-year in April. This deflation action is beginning to make Japan's experience of the past 20 years look like a picnic because Ireland, unlike Japan in the 1990s, remains in fiscal contraction mode. Thus, the Irish government aims to reduce its deficit to 10% of GDP in 2011 and then to 2.9% in 2014 from 14.3% last year
Others in the euro-zone will surely follow. Spain has potentially a huge deflationary cycle to endure given its level of consumer leverage and the degree of anticipated fiscal tightening. Spain's household debt-to-GDP ratio was 83% at the end of 2009, and Spain has to refinance €165 billion of maturing government debt by the end of 2011.
For the moment Spain has only just sunk into outright price deflation. Spanish core CPI, which excludes unprocessed food and energy products, fell by 0.1% year on year in April. This is the first core CPI deflation in Spain since the data series began in August 1986. But the pattern looks set to endure, and this is in a country that already has 20% unemployment.
Meanwhile, in America bank lending continues to decline as does the velocity of money in circulation. If this persists, markets will face worryingly low GDP growth in the U.S. going into 2011. It's this prospect that's begun to be discounted in the recent stock-market correction, which has already seen the S&P 500 give up all its gains for the year. This will sooner or later pave the way for another round of fiscal easing in Washington when both the Obama administration and Congress give up on their current hopes of a normal U.S. recovery.
That political mood swing will again raise the protectionist risk in Washington, with the lightning rod being the Chinese exchange rate. Beijing has been signaling that it will resume incremental appreciation of the renminbi by the middle of this year. But with the renminbi having appreciated by 24% against the euro since late November, China's leaders may be having second thoughts. A trade row between China and the U.S. on top of the growing concerns about a "double dip" in the West is the last thing markets will want to contend with. But they may have to.
Mr. Wood, equity strategist for CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong, is the author of "The Bubble Economy: Japan's Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the '80s and the Dramatic Bust of the '90s" (Solstice Publishing, 2005).
我为什么不鼓励孩子学医？
我为什么不鼓励孩子学医？ 2010-05-24 16:52:51
http://blog.creaders.net/Lewei/user_blog_diary.php?did=61831
让孩子上医学院是很多中国家长的理想。网上有很多谈论怎么考医学院的文章，有兴趣的人很多。医生工作稳定，收入高，受人尊重，是很多家长鼓励孩子学医的主要原因。学医真的有那么好吗？不知道有多少家长和孩子是在真正了解了学医的艰辛以后作出的决定。我自己作为医生家属，以我对在美国当医生过程的了解，医生工作对自己对家人的影响，我不鼓励孩子学医。在我周围的医生朋友里，大部分人也不鼓励孩子学医。
这种文章最好由医生们来写，可一直没有看见那个医生出来写。他们都很忙，就像我下面会谈到的，很少有时间可来写这种东西。作为一个医生的先生，见证了自己老婆和其他朋友在美国考board exams, 找住院医生位置，做住院医生，以及最后做医生的过程。体会到了这个过程对家庭的巨大影响。这里说说我对学医的一些了解，希望对有送孩子学医的家长有些参考作用。
做医生的好处，网上谈论的很多了。现在我来说说学医的其他不怎么好的方面。
第一，学医经济上负担重。
医学院4年，学费昂贵，大部分美国学生都是贷款读医学院。二十几万的贷款，毕业以后要还很多年才能还清。中国家长不是大包大揽就是支持大部分，孩子贷款小部分。对中国人来说，可能不算很大问题。有关谈论很多，不多述。
第二，学医过程时间长，强度大。
我熟悉的人都是中国医学院毕业的，或自己来美留学，或F2陪读来美。然后考board, 做住院医生。对怎么考美国医学院和在医学院的学习不清楚，网上这方面的文章很多。我要强调的是，考上医学院是不容易的。大学本科4年，成绩必须很优秀，才能进医学院。然后4年医学院你得保持好成绩，那么多课，要记的东西那么多，不下苦功是不行的。接下来要考Board, 一共三部分，也不容易。找到住院医后，要做3-5年，看你是什么科。每周80小时的工作，强度大，责任重。住院医生这个名字就告诉了你，你就是住在医院里，就是不回家的医生。其实是可以回家的，不过时间短，就只有睡觉的时间。和在旅馆睡觉差不多。而且还有24小时班，一口气上24小时(原来是36小时)才能下班。住院医生下了班最大的愿望就是睡觉，每天的感觉就是累。
从18岁进大学，4年本科，4年医学院，3-5年的住院医，你就是29-31岁了。如果要做专科大夫，你还得去做fellow。比如想做肠道专科, 就是给人检查胃镜的那种专科医生，先得做3年普通内科住院医，再做三年肠道fellow才能做肠道专科医生，出来32岁了。如果想做脑外科医生，先得做5年普通外科住院医，然后再做3年脑外科fellow，出来是34岁了。这些都是一切顺利的情况，如若有什么不顺，比如生病或有事休学，或找不到喜欢的住院医，做了一两年再换方向的话，出来的时间将更晚。
做完住院医生，刚刚出来做正式医生，你还需要几年来熟悉你的工作，建立你的病人群。这与过去当住院医不一样，那时是有人带你，现在你是独立做，责任更大。对于内科之类，你还要慢慢地积累你的病人，这需要时间。没有病人愿意找你看病，你就不可能成为一个独立的医生。这样下来你就是40岁左右了。
第三，要到大龄男，大龄女才能谈恋爱
很多家长们可能没有考虑到，你的孩子在做完住院医生之前是难去谈恋爱的。医学生读书，功课重，压力大，时间不多。做住院医时，就更加忙，每周80个小时大强度的工作以后，是不可能谈恋爱的，没有时间，没有精力。就是你愿意谈，美国长大的孩子，很少有人会愿意与一个医学生谈恋爱。一个星期见不到人是常事。偶尔一见，也是无精打采，匆匆而来，忙忙而去，不可能浪漫。更不可能去加勒比海，夏威夷度假了。有极少数男住院医生找到老婆结婚的，一般这样妻子就待在家里，照顾老公，或生儿育女。住院医生4-5万年薪，很多人还有贷款没有还，生活是很苦的。女住院医就更难了，没有几个有男朋友的。中国过来的医学生，因为大家早就结婚了。配偶是老夫老妻，加上中国的传统观念，没有办法，只能支持。但是配偶的工作和事业就大受影响，一个人如果没有爷爷奶奶们的支持是不可能又工作又带孩子的。很多人最后就只能回家带孩子了。
即使做完了住院医，仍然很忙。每周60小时的工作是很常见的。出去相亲谈恋爱的时间也不多，男的很多就找护士。工作中常见面，相互了解。但女的没有几个男护士可找的，只能找男医生，或在外面找。一个女生30多岁才能谈恋爱，社会上优秀男人三十几还没有结婚的很少了，选择余地很小，找到一个如意郎君难度很大。找到了以后，还得马上结婚生孩子，不然就太晚了。
第四，收入并没有那么高
如果背了二十万美元的贷款，你得还。内科医生刚出来时的薪水只有9万美元左右，交了税，扣了保险什么的，可能就只有5万多。扣除房子，车子，保险，日常开销，每年你能还多少？你要多少年才还清。你已经30多了，你原来的同学没有什么负债，只读了4年就工作了。你却多花4年医学院，至少3年，可能5年住院医。人家工作7-9年了，工资也可能从3万多涨到5-6万了，平均每年存1万，也有7万了。而你还是负20万。差距就是27万。你要多少年才能赶上呢？
内科工资低，那我做工资高的。做麻醉，外科，妇产科工资高，但住院医也长些(麻醉4年，外科5年)。挣钱的时间来得更晚。因为风险大，医疗事故保险费很高。7，8年前，宾州的保险赔偿上不封顶，赔了几个大事故后，保险公司就大涨保费。费城有一个妇产科大夫，三十年从来没有出过医疗事故，但他的保险费涨到了每年10万。他只好关门了。当时，费城一带的妇产科医生不是离开了，就是关门了。据说妇产科病人只能去别的州看病。最后好像是州议会通过了保费可以封顶的法律，保险公司才将保费降下来。但是保费仍然是一笔大钱。
麻醉听起来工资高，但他们的工作时间大多是每周60小时，就是相当于一个半人的工作量。如果22万一年(平均大致就这么高)，就相当与每周工作40小时的人拿15万一年的工资。而且配偶常常不能工作，家庭总收入并不比两口子都工作的高多少。
第五，工作辛苦，责任大
保费为什么高？因为麻醉，外科，妇产科可能要死人。所以这种工作压力很大。比如麻醉，人们觉得好像没有什么难的。其实不然。麻醉师得先于外科大夫之前来到手术室，做好准备工作。只有病人麻醉好了，外科大夫才可能做手术。手术中你要观测病人情况，随时调整用药剂量。手术完了，外科大夫就可以走了，但麻醉师不能走，他还得观察病人，稳定了才能离开。对于麻醉医生，不像外科大夫，他可以用X光，CT扫描，红外，NMR来看病灶部位，切开后，他看得到那个肿瘤，或骨折之处。麻醉是什么也看不到，你只能根据病人的体重，年龄，性别，来估算剂量。但即使完全相同条件的人，因为人对药物的敏感度不同，同样的剂量对一个人可能不够，对另外一个人可能就多了。就连病人的肥胖都有影响。瘦的人部位好找，胖的人就难多了。比如病人很胖，皮下脂肪很厚，针要推进很深才行，你只能靠经验，手感。如果没有打到地方是很危险的。美国每年有几万起因为麻药不够，病人在手术中醒过来了的事故。所以麻醉师上班都很紧张。有时一个人加一个住院医管两台手术，责任就更大了。
手术成功了，病人容易感谢外科大夫，但常常不知道谢谢麻醉师。所以很多人觉得做麻醉没有成就感，没有被承认。对了理所应当，错了却有责任。所以很长一段时间，美国医学生愿意学麻醉的不多，才造成了近十几年来，麻醉师稀缺，工资上涨。
像麻醉和外科，虽然不上班，你有24小时班和on call, 情况紧急时你可能得去医院。这种工作照看孩子不行，甚至接孩子都不行，因为你不知道几点回。这也是造成配偶很难工作的原因。
内科医生虽然没有死人的问题。但要看很多病人，paper work很多。尤其是晚上回家常有病人打电话来，询问病情，问是不是要去急症室等问题，很难安安静静地休息好。刚刚出来的新医生，要很多年才能有积累足够自己开诊所的病人。如果不自己开诊所，收入就不可能高。
医生就像是工作机器。读计算机时，老师解释CPU与其他构件的关系时说，CPU就像一个医生，其他构件就像护士，助理，秘书，财会人员，目的就是不浪费医生的时间，让医生时刻运转。
第六，专业方向不由己，工作地点不由人
医学有不错的专业方向。比如皮肤科，眼科，病理，理疗科。比较轻松，没有急症，不用上夜班，医疗事故少。尤其皮肤科收入还很高。你可以有自己的生活，按时上下班，去做自己想做的事。既然这么好，想去的人就多，但是这些科要人不多，所以很难进。成绩必须很好，而且可能还得有点关系吧。我知道的中国医生中，指在中国读了医学院，来美考的board的那些医生，没有皮肤科医生。有眼科，理疗的。大多中国人做内科，麻醉是因为美国人不太愿意做，好进，所以做的比较多。现在学麻醉的人又多起来了，已经不容易进了。
你想学那个科，进不进得去是一个问题。每年招多少住院医生是有限制的，这样保证出来的住院医生都找得到工作。
不但专业方向不是你想学什么就可以学什么，地方也不是你想去哪里就可以去的。大多数人不想去边缘地区，想进大城市，中等城市的和其郊区。所以大地方医院挤破头，小地方没有人去。你如果不想去小地方，你找工作就难，找到了工资也低。小地方工作好找，工资也高(因为没有人去，提高工资以增加吸引力)。为什么很多人不愿去小地方呢？年轻人喜欢热闹，也有一个找对象的问题。越小的地方选择越少。有家室的，一个几万人口的小城镇，是不可能有什么工作机会的，配偶找工作就是问题。学校也会差一些，孩子上学可能也是问题。加上小地方娱乐活动少，生活单调。你处于两难境地。
最近医学生找住院医生很困难，据说是近年来医学院为了赚钱，扩大招生。但是住院医生的有名额还是限制的，所以很多人就找不到住院医的位置了。不做住院医，就当不了医生。当然可以找大学，公司的研究工作。不过现在到处在裁人，找到的可能性也很小。而且孩子是不是喜欢做研究工作呢？花怎么多钱去读医学院，出来做研究工作，经济上不划算。
结束语 -
以上说了学医和做医生的艰辛。我过去也不知道，鼓励老婆去考医生的。但如果让我重新选择，我决不会那么做。
大家留意没有，虽然医生多次被评为美国收入最高职业的前几名，但从来没有进入过美国最受欢迎的职业前十名。
我不鼓励并不等于反对孩子学医。毕竟医生在美国是一个比较赚钱的职业，也受人尊重。学医还是看兴趣。外科大夫很累，但美国做外科大夫人就是喜爱做手术，他们enjoy做手术，哪怕加班晚上做他们也愿意，他们乐在其中。有这种心态，那就是一个做医生的料。不过你想让孩子学医赚大钱，你可能会失望的。比起金融来，医生的收入算不上很赚钱。孩子，尤其女孩，要知道学医会是一个什么过程，有多么艰难。有没有30多岁以后才谈恋爱的思想准备。让他/她自己做决定，而不是你。你的孩子如果是很富创造性，不愿墨守成规，最好不要学医。因为医学学起来比较灵活，但用起来很死板，自己发挥的地方不多。为了少出事故，和减少责任，医生常常依赖大量的检验，没有什么可以自己发挥分析判断的地方。你循规蹈矩，错了，不是你的责任。如果你按自己的处理，对了，理所应当；出了问题，就是你的责任。
（说明：我不是医生，所写的东西大多是看来和听来的。错误肯定不少，只能作为参考。你如果有疑问的地方，请咨询你的医生或做医生的朋友）
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作者：lijh339 留言时间：2010-05-24 21:09:18
A good review!
作者：莺歌燕语 留言时间：2010-05-24 21:11:09
一个喜欢的职业，就是好职业。做喜欢做的事也不感到累。如是为了钱，学医就会很苦。
作者：隐居者 留言时间：2010-05-24 21:44:59
如今华裔子弟学医大军浩浩荡荡， 势不可挡， 全然不顾自己的爱好，自己的特长和能力，一哄而上，在美医学院掀起一幕幕自相残杀，激烈争斗的好戏。
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2010-05-24 22:34:26
Very good summary. Thank you for sharing.
People in financial sector may not be as good as you think.
The grass is always greener in the other side.
作者：昭君 留言时间：2010-05-24 22:42:41
在美国做个医生是太辛苦了(当然家庭医生可能相对轻松)， 不说考医学院四年的艰辛，单是那住院医的几年就够受的。美国的医疗成本那么高，跟
医生培养的周期过长，成本过高有直接关系 --当然这不是医生自己的错，而是制度性的问题。其他发达国家都没有这样严，人家的医疗水平似乎也不比美国差。
莺歌燕语说得很对，要真正喜欢这个专业才好；如果只是为了收入高，地位高而选择学医，最好不学:))
还好俺家两个小子都没有这个“理想”，呵呵。
作者：百草园 留言时间：2010-05-24 22:58:14
乐维，你算内幕人员，知道学医和行医的苦处。我赞同莺歌燕语的观点，学医一定要喜欢医，如果只是为了收入，会学的很苦。另外，美国从来没有扩招医学院的学生，每年的数量是一样的，不过最近一些年，医生助理（PA）专业很热，有很多人去学，这可能是造成医生显得过多现象。
作者：中国民工 留言时间：2010-05-24 23:18:54
有意思，吃不到葡萄，葡萄是酸的。阿Q精神蛮好。
作者：007 留言时间：2010-05-25 03:19:52
难道读书期间就不能谈恋爱？组织家庭？太刻板了吧？要不然就是太笨了，真的是不能一心二用。要是这样我看学什么都不行。我看医生是个不错的职业。也适合在海外的华人生存。
作者：pcstar 留言时间：2010-05-25 06:57:06
多可笑的制度！高中没毕业的劳工都有劳工法保护，而最优秀最努力的如医生专业却被当奴工用，不止医生这专业是如此，其他如审计也是问题，就因为有个 Professional 的光环。
我们一早就百分百灭了小孩读医学院的念头，因知道些弊病。看了您平实详细的分析更加百分二百确定当初决定是对的。谢谢！
作者：中西部人 留言时间：2010-05-25 07:15:20
下的结论都是根据道听途说的感觉。在美国上过小学就会避免这个毛病。你说其他行业赚钱有轻松的根据是什么？金融的就不要辛苦吗？你下这个结论前先去问问华尔街上班的年轻人他们工作几个小时？你应该先去问问那些生物博士后，他们在实验室工作几个小时？你应该先去律师事务所问问那些实习律师，他们工作几个小时？问过了这一轮过去了再下结论。“在我周围的医生朋友里，大部分人也不鼓励孩子学医。” 这是听说的？还是有数据？说的和做的都一样吗？ 平常抱怨几句，到最后还是选择了医学的多去了。我看到的我们周边的医生的孩子，几乎是都上了医学院了。除非成绩实在不好。因为医生的孩子上医学院有照顾。我这是有数据的。不是听说的。
http://blog.creaders.net/Lewei/user_blog_diary.php?did=61831
让孩子上医学院是很多中国家长的理想。网上有很多谈论怎么考医学院的文章，有兴趣的人很多。医生工作稳定，收入高，受人尊重，是很多家长鼓励孩子学医的主要原因。学医真的有那么好吗？不知道有多少家长和孩子是在真正了解了学医的艰辛以后作出的决定。我自己作为医生家属，以我对在美国当医生过程的了解，医生工作对自己对家人的影响，我不鼓励孩子学医。在我周围的医生朋友里，大部分人也不鼓励孩子学医。
这种文章最好由医生们来写，可一直没有看见那个医生出来写。他们都很忙，就像我下面会谈到的，很少有时间可来写这种东西。作为一个医生的先生，见证了自己老婆和其他朋友在美国考board exams, 找住院医生位置，做住院医生，以及最后做医生的过程。体会到了这个过程对家庭的巨大影响。这里说说我对学医的一些了解，希望对有送孩子学医的家长有些参考作用。
做医生的好处，网上谈论的很多了。现在我来说说学医的其他不怎么好的方面。
第一，学医经济上负担重。
医学院4年，学费昂贵，大部分美国学生都是贷款读医学院。二十几万的贷款，毕业以后要还很多年才能还清。中国家长不是大包大揽就是支持大部分，孩子贷款小部分。对中国人来说，可能不算很大问题。有关谈论很多，不多述。
第二，学医过程时间长，强度大。
我熟悉的人都是中国医学院毕业的，或自己来美留学，或F2陪读来美。然后考board, 做住院医生。对怎么考美国医学院和在医学院的学习不清楚，网上这方面的文章很多。我要强调的是，考上医学院是不容易的。大学本科4年，成绩必须很优秀，才能进医学院。然后4年医学院你得保持好成绩，那么多课，要记的东西那么多，不下苦功是不行的。接下来要考Board, 一共三部分，也不容易。找到住院医后，要做3-5年，看你是什么科。每周80小时的工作，强度大，责任重。住院医生这个名字就告诉了你，你就是住在医院里，就是不回家的医生。其实是可以回家的，不过时间短，就只有睡觉的时间。和在旅馆睡觉差不多。而且还有24小时班，一口气上24小时(原来是36小时)才能下班。住院医生下了班最大的愿望就是睡觉，每天的感觉就是累。
从18岁进大学，4年本科，4年医学院，3-5年的住院医，你就是29-31岁了。如果要做专科大夫，你还得去做fellow。比如想做肠道专科, 就是给人检查胃镜的那种专科医生，先得做3年普通内科住院医，再做三年肠道fellow才能做肠道专科医生，出来32岁了。如果想做脑外科医生，先得做5年普通外科住院医，然后再做3年脑外科fellow，出来是34岁了。这些都是一切顺利的情况，如若有什么不顺，比如生病或有事休学，或找不到喜欢的住院医，做了一两年再换方向的话，出来的时间将更晚。
做完住院医生，刚刚出来做正式医生，你还需要几年来熟悉你的工作，建立你的病人群。这与过去当住院医不一样，那时是有人带你，现在你是独立做，责任更大。对于内科之类，你还要慢慢地积累你的病人，这需要时间。没有病人愿意找你看病，你就不可能成为一个独立的医生。这样下来你就是40岁左右了。
第三，要到大龄男，大龄女才能谈恋爱
很多家长们可能没有考虑到，你的孩子在做完住院医生之前是难去谈恋爱的。医学生读书，功课重，压力大，时间不多。做住院医时，就更加忙，每周80个小时大强度的工作以后，是不可能谈恋爱的，没有时间，没有精力。就是你愿意谈，美国长大的孩子，很少有人会愿意与一个医学生谈恋爱。一个星期见不到人是常事。偶尔一见，也是无精打采，匆匆而来，忙忙而去，不可能浪漫。更不可能去加勒比海，夏威夷度假了。有极少数男住院医生找到老婆结婚的，一般这样妻子就待在家里，照顾老公，或生儿育女。住院医生4-5万年薪，很多人还有贷款没有还，生活是很苦的。女住院医就更难了，没有几个有男朋友的。中国过来的医学生，因为大家早就结婚了。配偶是老夫老妻，加上中国的传统观念，没有办法，只能支持。但是配偶的工作和事业就大受影响，一个人如果没有爷爷奶奶们的支持是不可能又工作又带孩子的。很多人最后就只能回家带孩子了。
即使做完了住院医，仍然很忙。每周60小时的工作是很常见的。出去相亲谈恋爱的时间也不多，男的很多就找护士。工作中常见面，相互了解。但女的没有几个男护士可找的，只能找男医生，或在外面找。一个女生30多岁才能谈恋爱，社会上优秀男人三十几还没有结婚的很少了，选择余地很小，找到一个如意郎君难度很大。找到了以后，还得马上结婚生孩子，不然就太晚了。
第四，收入并没有那么高
如果背了二十万美元的贷款，你得还。内科医生刚出来时的薪水只有9万美元左右，交了税，扣了保险什么的，可能就只有5万多。扣除房子，车子，保险，日常开销，每年你能还多少？你要多少年才还清。你已经30多了，你原来的同学没有什么负债，只读了4年就工作了。你却多花4年医学院，至少3年，可能5年住院医。人家工作7-9年了，工资也可能从3万多涨到5-6万了，平均每年存1万，也有7万了。而你还是负20万。差距就是27万。你要多少年才能赶上呢？
内科工资低，那我做工资高的。做麻醉，外科，妇产科工资高，但住院医也长些(麻醉4年，外科5年)。挣钱的时间来得更晚。因为风险大，医疗事故保险费很高。7，8年前，宾州的保险赔偿上不封顶，赔了几个大事故后，保险公司就大涨保费。费城有一个妇产科大夫，三十年从来没有出过医疗事故，但他的保险费涨到了每年10万。他只好关门了。当时，费城一带的妇产科医生不是离开了，就是关门了。据说妇产科病人只能去别的州看病。最后好像是州议会通过了保费可以封顶的法律，保险公司才将保费降下来。但是保费仍然是一笔大钱。
麻醉听起来工资高，但他们的工作时间大多是每周60小时，就是相当于一个半人的工作量。如果22万一年(平均大致就这么高)，就相当与每周工作40小时的人拿15万一年的工资。而且配偶常常不能工作，家庭总收入并不比两口子都工作的高多少。
第五，工作辛苦，责任大
保费为什么高？因为麻醉，外科，妇产科可能要死人。所以这种工作压力很大。比如麻醉，人们觉得好像没有什么难的。其实不然。麻醉师得先于外科大夫之前来到手术室，做好准备工作。只有病人麻醉好了，外科大夫才可能做手术。手术中你要观测病人情况，随时调整用药剂量。手术完了，外科大夫就可以走了，但麻醉师不能走，他还得观察病人，稳定了才能离开。对于麻醉医生，不像外科大夫，他可以用X光，CT扫描，红外，NMR来看病灶部位，切开后，他看得到那个肿瘤，或骨折之处。麻醉是什么也看不到，你只能根据病人的体重，年龄，性别，来估算剂量。但即使完全相同条件的人，因为人对药物的敏感度不同，同样的剂量对一个人可能不够，对另外一个人可能就多了。就连病人的肥胖都有影响。瘦的人部位好找，胖的人就难多了。比如病人很胖，皮下脂肪很厚，针要推进很深才行，你只能靠经验，手感。如果没有打到地方是很危险的。美国每年有几万起因为麻药不够，病人在手术中醒过来了的事故。所以麻醉师上班都很紧张。有时一个人加一个住院医管两台手术，责任就更大了。
手术成功了，病人容易感谢外科大夫，但常常不知道谢谢麻醉师。所以很多人觉得做麻醉没有成就感，没有被承认。对了理所应当，错了却有责任。所以很长一段时间，美国医学生愿意学麻醉的不多，才造成了近十几年来，麻醉师稀缺，工资上涨。
像麻醉和外科，虽然不上班，你有24小时班和on call, 情况紧急时你可能得去医院。这种工作照看孩子不行，甚至接孩子都不行，因为你不知道几点回。这也是造成配偶很难工作的原因。
内科医生虽然没有死人的问题。但要看很多病人，paper work很多。尤其是晚上回家常有病人打电话来，询问病情，问是不是要去急症室等问题，很难安安静静地休息好。刚刚出来的新医生，要很多年才能有积累足够自己开诊所的病人。如果不自己开诊所，收入就不可能高。
医生就像是工作机器。读计算机时，老师解释CPU与其他构件的关系时说，CPU就像一个医生，其他构件就像护士，助理，秘书，财会人员，目的就是不浪费医生的时间，让医生时刻运转。
第六，专业方向不由己，工作地点不由人
医学有不错的专业方向。比如皮肤科，眼科，病理，理疗科。比较轻松，没有急症，不用上夜班，医疗事故少。尤其皮肤科收入还很高。你可以有自己的生活，按时上下班，去做自己想做的事。既然这么好，想去的人就多，但是这些科要人不多，所以很难进。成绩必须很好，而且可能还得有点关系吧。我知道的中国医生中，指在中国读了医学院，来美考的board的那些医生，没有皮肤科医生。有眼科，理疗的。大多中国人做内科，麻醉是因为美国人不太愿意做，好进，所以做的比较多。现在学麻醉的人又多起来了，已经不容易进了。
你想学那个科，进不进得去是一个问题。每年招多少住院医生是有限制的，这样保证出来的住院医生都找得到工作。
不但专业方向不是你想学什么就可以学什么，地方也不是你想去哪里就可以去的。大多数人不想去边缘地区，想进大城市，中等城市的和其郊区。所以大地方医院挤破头，小地方没有人去。你如果不想去小地方，你找工作就难，找到了工资也低。小地方工作好找，工资也高(因为没有人去，提高工资以增加吸引力)。为什么很多人不愿去小地方呢？年轻人喜欢热闹，也有一个找对象的问题。越小的地方选择越少。有家室的，一个几万人口的小城镇，是不可能有什么工作机会的，配偶找工作就是问题。学校也会差一些，孩子上学可能也是问题。加上小地方娱乐活动少，生活单调。你处于两难境地。
最近医学生找住院医生很困难，据说是近年来医学院为了赚钱，扩大招生。但是住院医生的有名额还是限制的，所以很多人就找不到住院医的位置了。不做住院医，就当不了医生。当然可以找大学，公司的研究工作。不过现在到处在裁人，找到的可能性也很小。而且孩子是不是喜欢做研究工作呢？花怎么多钱去读医学院，出来做研究工作，经济上不划算。
结束语 -
以上说了学医和做医生的艰辛。我过去也不知道，鼓励老婆去考医生的。但如果让我重新选择，我决不会那么做。
大家留意没有，虽然医生多次被评为美国收入最高职业的前几名，但从来没有进入过美国最受欢迎的职业前十名。
我不鼓励并不等于反对孩子学医。毕竟医生在美国是一个比较赚钱的职业，也受人尊重。学医还是看兴趣。外科大夫很累，但美国做外科大夫人就是喜爱做手术，他们enjoy做手术，哪怕加班晚上做他们也愿意，他们乐在其中。有这种心态，那就是一个做医生的料。不过你想让孩子学医赚大钱，你可能会失望的。比起金融来，医生的收入算不上很赚钱。孩子，尤其女孩，要知道学医会是一个什么过程，有多么艰难。有没有30多岁以后才谈恋爱的思想准备。让他/她自己做决定，而不是你。你的孩子如果是很富创造性，不愿墨守成规，最好不要学医。因为医学学起来比较灵活，但用起来很死板，自己发挥的地方不多。为了少出事故，和减少责任，医生常常依赖大量的检验，没有什么可以自己发挥分析判断的地方。你循规蹈矩，错了，不是你的责任。如果你按自己的处理，对了，理所应当；出了问题，就是你的责任。
（说明：我不是医生，所写的东西大多是看来和听来的。错误肯定不少，只能作为参考。你如果有疑问的地方，请咨询你的医生或做医生的朋友）
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作者：lijh339 留言时间：2010-05-24 21:09:18
A good review!
作者：莺歌燕语 留言时间：2010-05-24 21:11:09
一个喜欢的职业，就是好职业。做喜欢做的事也不感到累。如是为了钱，学医就会很苦。
作者：隐居者 留言时间：2010-05-24 21:44:59
如今华裔子弟学医大军浩浩荡荡， 势不可挡， 全然不顾自己的爱好，自己的特长和能力，一哄而上，在美医学院掀起一幕幕自相残杀，激烈争斗的好戏。
作者：刘以栋 留言时间：2010-05-24 22:34:26
Very good summary. Thank you for sharing.
People in financial sector may not be as good as you think.
The grass is always greener in the other side.
作者：昭君 留言时间：2010-05-24 22:42:41
在美国做个医生是太辛苦了(当然家庭医生可能相对轻松)， 不说考医学院四年的艰辛，单是那住院医的几年就够受的。美国的医疗成本那么高，跟
医生培养的周期过长，成本过高有直接关系 --当然这不是医生自己的错，而是制度性的问题。其他发达国家都没有这样严，人家的医疗水平似乎也不比美国差。
莺歌燕语说得很对，要真正喜欢这个专业才好；如果只是为了收入高，地位高而选择学医，最好不学:))
还好俺家两个小子都没有这个“理想”，呵呵。
作者：百草园 留言时间：2010-05-24 22:58:14
乐维，你算内幕人员，知道学医和行医的苦处。我赞同莺歌燕语的观点，学医一定要喜欢医，如果只是为了收入，会学的很苦。另外，美国从来没有扩招医学院的学生，每年的数量是一样的，不过最近一些年，医生助理（PA）专业很热，有很多人去学，这可能是造成医生显得过多现象。
作者：中国民工 留言时间：2010-05-24 23:18:54
有意思，吃不到葡萄，葡萄是酸的。阿Q精神蛮好。
作者：007 留言时间：2010-05-25 03:19:52
难道读书期间就不能谈恋爱？组织家庭？太刻板了吧？要不然就是太笨了，真的是不能一心二用。要是这样我看学什么都不行。我看医生是个不错的职业。也适合在海外的华人生存。
作者：pcstar 留言时间：2010-05-25 06:57:06
多可笑的制度！高中没毕业的劳工都有劳工法保护，而最优秀最努力的如医生专业却被当奴工用，不止医生这专业是如此，其他如审计也是问题，就因为有个 Professional 的光环。
我们一早就百分百灭了小孩读医学院的念头，因知道些弊病。看了您平实详细的分析更加百分二百确定当初决定是对的。谢谢！
作者：中西部人 留言时间：2010-05-25 07:15:20
下的结论都是根据道听途说的感觉。在美国上过小学就会避免这个毛病。你说其他行业赚钱有轻松的根据是什么？金融的就不要辛苦吗？你下这个结论前先去问问华尔街上班的年轻人他们工作几个小时？你应该先去问问那些生物博士后，他们在实验室工作几个小时？你应该先去律师事务所问问那些实习律师，他们工作几个小时？问过了这一轮过去了再下结论。“在我周围的医生朋友里，大部分人也不鼓励孩子学医。” 这是听说的？还是有数据？说的和做的都一样吗？ 平常抱怨几句，到最后还是选择了医学的多去了。我看到的我们周边的医生的孩子，几乎是都上了医学院了。除非成绩实在不好。因为医生的孩子上医学院有照顾。我这是有数据的。不是听说的。
Monday, May 24, 2010
EQ
男女之间，本就是愿打愿挨，哪里轮得到外人来仲裁?
活到这个年纪，许多往事也该慢慢想明白了;如果至今还糊涂着，恐怕这辈子也就这样了。
张爱玲说过，每一段感情都是千疮百孔的。
有些事没有必要搞得太明白，有些事我们永远也搞不明白。还有些事，我们根本就不敢搞明白。
http://baike.baidu.com/view/10439.htm?fr=ala0_1_1
简单的来说，EQ是一个人自我情绪管理以及管理他人情绪的能力指数。
一直到一九八三年，美国心理学家嘉纳教授（Howard Gardner）提出了影响现今教育体系甚钜的“多元智力”理论。他认为原先只重数理语文能力等的传统定义“智力”的方式（亦即IQ）需要大幅修改，因为一个人的IQ除了对学校学习的成绩有很高的正相关（IQ愈高，功课愈好），对于其它方面，例如工作表现，感情及生活满意度等并无太大的关系。
嘉纳教授在他的多元智力理论中，多加了几项智力，包括了音乐，体育以及了解自我和了解他人之能力。而这后两项，让“社会智力”的概念再一次地受到教育界及心理学界的重视。
第一个使用“EQ”这个名词的人是心理学家巴昂（Reuven Bar-on），他在一九八八年编制了一份专门测验EQ的问卷（EQ-i），根据他的定义，EQ包括了那些能影响我们去适应环境的情绪及社交能力。其中有五大项：（1）自我EQ（2）人际EQ（3）适应力（4）压力管理能力（5）一般情绪状态（乐观度，快乐感）。
接着又有心理学家沙洛维及梅耶（Salovey&；Mayer）在一九九0年提出情绪智力的定义。他们认为情绪智力应和乐观等人格特质区分开来，所以他们对EQ的定义强调在了解并运用情绪之方面。
真正让“EQ”一词走出心理学的学术圈，而成为人人朗朗上口的日常生活用语的心理学家是哈佛大学的丹尼尔•高曼 教授（Daniel Goleman）。他在1995年出版的《EQ》一书（Emotional Intelligence），登上了世界各国的畅销书排行榜，在全世界掀起了一股EQ热潮。
高曼发现一个人的EQ对他在职场的表现有着非常重要的影响。举例而言，一个针对全美国前500大企业员工所做的调查发现，不论产业别为何，一个人的IQ和EQ对他在工作上成功的贡献比例为IQ：EQ＝1：2，也就是说，对于工作成就而言，EQ的影响是IQ的两倍，而且职位愈高，EQ对工作表现的影响就愈大。此外对于某些工作类别，例如行销，业务以及客户服务等等，EQ的影响就更为明显。
活到这个年纪，许多往事也该慢慢想明白了;如果至今还糊涂着，恐怕这辈子也就这样了。
张爱玲说过，每一段感情都是千疮百孔的。
有些事没有必要搞得太明白，有些事我们永远也搞不明白。还有些事，我们根本就不敢搞明白。
http://baike.baidu.com/view/10439.htm?fr=ala0_1_1
简单的来说，EQ是一个人自我情绪管理以及管理他人情绪的能力指数。
一直到一九八三年，美国心理学家嘉纳教授（Howard Gardner）提出了影响现今教育体系甚钜的“多元智力”理论。他认为原先只重数理语文能力等的传统定义“智力”的方式（亦即IQ）需要大幅修改，因为一个人的IQ除了对学校学习的成绩有很高的正相关（IQ愈高，功课愈好），对于其它方面，例如工作表现，感情及生活满意度等并无太大的关系。
嘉纳教授在他的多元智力理论中，多加了几项智力，包括了音乐，体育以及了解自我和了解他人之能力。而这后两项，让“社会智力”的概念再一次地受到教育界及心理学界的重视。
第一个使用“EQ”这个名词的人是心理学家巴昂（Reuven Bar-on），他在一九八八年编制了一份专门测验EQ的问卷（EQ-i），根据他的定义，EQ包括了那些能影响我们去适应环境的情绪及社交能力。其中有五大项：（1）自我EQ（2）人际EQ（3）适应力（4）压力管理能力（5）一般情绪状态（乐观度，快乐感）。
接着又有心理学家沙洛维及梅耶（Salovey&；Mayer）在一九九0年提出情绪智力的定义。他们认为情绪智力应和乐观等人格特质区分开来，所以他们对EQ的定义强调在了解并运用情绪之方面。
真正让“EQ”一词走出心理学的学术圈，而成为人人朗朗上口的日常生活用语的心理学家是哈佛大学的丹尼尔•高曼 教授（Daniel Goleman）。他在1995年出版的《EQ》一书（Emotional Intelligence），登上了世界各国的畅销书排行榜，在全世界掀起了一股EQ热潮。
高曼发现一个人的EQ对他在职场的表现有着非常重要的影响。举例而言，一个针对全美国前500大企业员工所做的调查发现，不论产业别为何，一个人的IQ和EQ对他在工作上成功的贡献比例为IQ：EQ＝1：2，也就是说，对于工作成就而言，EQ的影响是IQ的两倍，而且职位愈高，EQ对工作表现的影响就愈大。此外对于某些工作类别，例如行销，业务以及客户服务等等，EQ的影响就更为明显。
Sunday, May 23, 2010
先驱报：从强奸门看国人的后宫文化
先驱报：从强奸门看国人的后宫文化
-http://news.creaders.net/comment/newsViewer.php?nid=432132&id=983882-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
先驱报 作者: 秦建中 2010-05-20 15:18:16
新西兰中文《先驱报》20日刊文《从“强奸门”看国人的后宫文化》。文章说，宋山木“强奸门”令社会舆论哗然，从宋山木们身上折射出的中国人传统的后宫文化看，阻挠社会进步的障碍还是传统文化糟粕的阴魂不散。在中国社会发生翻天覆地变化的今天，我们面临的重大任务无疑还是对封建思想文化的彻底清算。
文章摘编如下：
宋山木是深圳山木公司原总裁，他曾经一连六次成为央视春晚的贵宾，一副眼镜、一脸络腮胡须、一袭吊带装，加上遍布全国多个大城市的蓄胡子微笑的形象广告牌，相信他会给很多人留下难以忘怀的印象。
宋山木本来就是名人，只不过这次让他名声大振的不是他的山木公司，而是令社会舆论为之哗然的“强奸门”。宋山木手下的员工、22岁的女孩罗云(化名)向深圳警方报案称，她被山木集团总裁宋山木带到罗湖区松泉公寓，遭受威胁并被拍下裸照，身处月经期仍被强奸。
墙倒众人推。自从宋山木涉嫌强奸被立案侦查以来，有关他的性丑闻接二连三。有报道称，宋山木有每个女员工宿舍的钥匙，可以随时到女员工宿舍，还经常强迫女性职员成为他的长期性伴侣。宋山木还将所有女职员安排住进同一个公司宿舍，通过监控录像监视她们的一举一动。
这位知情的张先生说，对于宋山木来说，罗云被强奸一事根本算不上什么，也谈不上“强奸”，因为只要他想要，没有女员工不敢不给的。他还告诉记者，办培训教育这么多年，类似罗云遭遇的女性数不胜数。
也就是说，山木公司不但能为他赚得大把大把的钞票，而且还成了他尽情享乐的后宫。只要他看上的女人，就必须要“临幸”，乖乖就范还倒罢了，否则就要霸王硬上弓。他有句名方可以佐证，“对女孩子，睡五次就忘掉，得不到就强奸。”
宋山木毫无疑问是一个成功的现代企业家，但在他身上却看不出一丝一毫现代文明的影子。以今天的眼光看，他不过是一个穿着文明装的地痞加流氓，从历史的角度看，一个成了暴发户的恶棍也要过一过帝王们三宫六院的色瘾。
中国人从来就是如此，帝王将相们自不必说，即便是做小生意富了的人也要学一学皇帝老儿，娶他个三妻四妾，因为不如此，难以显摆一个人在拥有了权力和财富之后的尊贵；不如此，就无法显示权贵者的威风和排场。
这就是中国人的后宫文化，一些占有大量社会财富的人在发达之后，从未想过怎样和如何回报社会，而是以财富为资本贪婪地剥夺和侵犯他人的权利，最终实现良田万顷和美女如云的“崇高理想”。
虽然今天已是二十一世纪，但封建传统思想还与老祖宗们一脉相承。尽管穿着的是洋装，但内衣无一例外的还是黄袍马褂。只要有可能，宋山木们想得最多的就是能够拥有天下财富和玩遍所有女人。
一个小学校的副校长也就是芝麻大的官，可他与宋山木在性的欲望方面不谋而合，从媒体披露出的情况看，他手下的女老师很少能得以幸免。对此，此人还大言不惭地说，这叫做肥水不流外人田。
一句“肥水不流外人田”尽显专制心态，道出了后宫文化的本义与内涵。卧榻之下岂容他人酣睡，好女人岂容他人独占，虽然这两句话的意思南辕北辙，但意义却是十二分的相近。
性专制是文化专制的一个分支，它是权力专制的衍生品。从宋山木的一言一行看，他在公司内可谓是一手遮天，虽然公司是他的，但民主化管理与人性化管理从来就与山木公司无缘。一个很典型的例子，宋山木在自己的办公室内可以对公司的员工任意搜身。
五四运动过去了将近一个世纪，在中国社会发生翻天覆地变化的今天，我们面临的重大任务无疑还是对封建思想文化的彻底清算。从宋山木们身上折射出的后宫文化看，阻挠社会进步的障碍还是传统文化糟粕的阴魂不散。(秦建中)
-http://news.creaders.net/comment/newsViewer.php?nid=432132&id=983882-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
先驱报 作者: 秦建中 2010-05-20 15:18:16
新西兰中文《先驱报》20日刊文《从“强奸门”看国人的后宫文化》。文章说，宋山木“强奸门”令社会舆论哗然，从宋山木们身上折射出的中国人传统的后宫文化看，阻挠社会进步的障碍还是传统文化糟粕的阴魂不散。在中国社会发生翻天覆地变化的今天，我们面临的重大任务无疑还是对封建思想文化的彻底清算。
文章摘编如下：
宋山木是深圳山木公司原总裁，他曾经一连六次成为央视春晚的贵宾，一副眼镜、一脸络腮胡须、一袭吊带装，加上遍布全国多个大城市的蓄胡子微笑的形象广告牌，相信他会给很多人留下难以忘怀的印象。
宋山木本来就是名人，只不过这次让他名声大振的不是他的山木公司，而是令社会舆论为之哗然的“强奸门”。宋山木手下的员工、22岁的女孩罗云(化名)向深圳警方报案称，她被山木集团总裁宋山木带到罗湖区松泉公寓，遭受威胁并被拍下裸照，身处月经期仍被强奸。
墙倒众人推。自从宋山木涉嫌强奸被立案侦查以来，有关他的性丑闻接二连三。有报道称，宋山木有每个女员工宿舍的钥匙，可以随时到女员工宿舍，还经常强迫女性职员成为他的长期性伴侣。宋山木还将所有女职员安排住进同一个公司宿舍，通过监控录像监视她们的一举一动。
这位知情的张先生说，对于宋山木来说，罗云被强奸一事根本算不上什么，也谈不上“强奸”，因为只要他想要，没有女员工不敢不给的。他还告诉记者，办培训教育这么多年，类似罗云遭遇的女性数不胜数。
也就是说，山木公司不但能为他赚得大把大把的钞票，而且还成了他尽情享乐的后宫。只要他看上的女人，就必须要“临幸”，乖乖就范还倒罢了，否则就要霸王硬上弓。他有句名方可以佐证，“对女孩子，睡五次就忘掉，得不到就强奸。”
宋山木毫无疑问是一个成功的现代企业家，但在他身上却看不出一丝一毫现代文明的影子。以今天的眼光看，他不过是一个穿着文明装的地痞加流氓，从历史的角度看，一个成了暴发户的恶棍也要过一过帝王们三宫六院的色瘾。
中国人从来就是如此，帝王将相们自不必说，即便是做小生意富了的人也要学一学皇帝老儿，娶他个三妻四妾，因为不如此，难以显摆一个人在拥有了权力和财富之后的尊贵；不如此，就无法显示权贵者的威风和排场。
这就是中国人的后宫文化，一些占有大量社会财富的人在发达之后，从未想过怎样和如何回报社会，而是以财富为资本贪婪地剥夺和侵犯他人的权利，最终实现良田万顷和美女如云的“崇高理想”。
虽然今天已是二十一世纪，但封建传统思想还与老祖宗们一脉相承。尽管穿着的是洋装，但内衣无一例外的还是黄袍马褂。只要有可能，宋山木们想得最多的就是能够拥有天下财富和玩遍所有女人。
一个小学校的副校长也就是芝麻大的官，可他与宋山木在性的欲望方面不谋而合，从媒体披露出的情况看，他手下的女老师很少能得以幸免。对此，此人还大言不惭地说，这叫做肥水不流外人田。
一句“肥水不流外人田”尽显专制心态，道出了后宫文化的本义与内涵。卧榻之下岂容他人酣睡，好女人岂容他人独占，虽然这两句话的意思南辕北辙，但意义却是十二分的相近。
性专制是文化专制的一个分支，它是权力专制的衍生品。从宋山木的一言一行看，他在公司内可谓是一手遮天，虽然公司是他的，但民主化管理与人性化管理从来就与山木公司无缘。一个很典型的例子，宋山木在自己的办公室内可以对公司的员工任意搜身。
五四运动过去了将近一个世纪，在中国社会发生翻天覆地变化的今天，我们面临的重大任务无疑还是对封建思想文化的彻底清算。从宋山木们身上折射出的后宫文化看，阻挠社会进步的障碍还是传统文化糟粕的阴魂不散。(秦建中)
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Five Ways to Keep Online Criminals at Bay
Five Ways to Keep Online Criminals at Bay
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Five-Ways-to-Keep-Online-nytimes-705997581.html?x=0&.v=1
..On Wednesday May 19, 2010, 7:45 pm EDT
THE Web is a fount of information, a busy marketplace, a thriving social scene — and a den of criminal activity.
Criminals have found abundant opportunities to undertake stealthy attacks on ordinary Web users that can be hard to stop, experts say. Hackers are lacing Web sites — often legitimate ones — with so-called malware, which can silently infiltrate visiting PCs to steal sensitive personal information and then turn the computers into “zombies” that can be used to spew spam and more malware onto the Internet.
At one time, virus attacks were obvious to users, said Alan Paller, director of research at the SANS Institute, a training organization for computer security professionals. He explained that now, the attacks were more silent. “Now it’s much, much easier infecting trusted Web sites,” he said, “and getting your zombies that way.”
And there are myriad lures aimed at conning people into installing nefarious programs, buying fake antivirus software or turning over personal information that can be used in identity fraud.
“The Web opened up a lot more opportunities for attacking” computer users and making money, said Maxim Weinstein, executive director of StopBadware, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group that receives funding from Google, PayPal, Mozilla and others.
Google says its automated scans of the Internet recently turned up malware on roughly 300,000 Web sites, double the number it recorded two years ago. Each site can contain many infected pages. Meanwhile, Malware doubled last year, to 240 million unique attacks, according to Symantec, a maker of security software. And that does not count the scourge of fake antivirus software and other scams.
So it is more important than ever to protect yourself. Here are some basic tips for thwarting them.
Protect the Browser
The most direct line of attack is the browser, said Vincent Weafer, vice president of Symantec Security Response. Online criminals can use programming flaws in browsers to get malware onto PCs in “drive-by” downloads without users ever noticing.
Internet Explorer and Firefox are the most targeted browsers because they are the most popular. If you use current versions, and download security updates as they become available, you can surf safely. But there can still be exposure between when a vulnerability is discovered and an update becomes available, so you will need up-to-date security software as well to try to block any attacks that may emerge, especially if you have a Windows PC.
It can help to use a more obscure browser like Chrome from Google, which also happens to be the newest browser on the market and, as such, includes some security advances that make attacks more difficult.
Get Adobe Updates
Most consumers are familiar with Adobe Reader, for PDF files, and Adobe’s Flash Player. In the last year, a virtual epidemic of attacks has exploited their flaws; almost half of all attacks now come hidden in PDF files, Mr. Weafer said. “No matter what browser you’re using,” he said, “you’re using the PDF Reader, you’re using the Adobe Flash Player.”
Part of the problem is that many computers run old, vulnerable versions. But as of April, it has become easier to get automatic updates from Adobe, if you follow certain steps.
To update Reader, open the application and then select “Help” and “Check for Updates” from the menu bar. Since April, Windows users have been able to choose to get future updates automatically without additional prompts by clicking “Edit” and “Preferences,” then choosing “Updater” from the list and selecting “Automatically install updates.” Mac users can arrange updates using a similar procedure, though Apple requires that they enter their password each time an update is installed.
Adobe said it did not make silent automatic updates available previously because many users, especially at companies, were averse to them. To get the latest version of Flash Player, visit Abobe’s Web site.
Any software can be vulnerable. Windows PC users can identify vulnerable or out-of-date software using Secunia PSI, a free tool that scans machines and alerts users to potential problems.
Beware Malicious Ads
An increasingly popular way to get attacks onto Web sites people trust is to slip them into advertisements, usually by duping small-time ad networks. Malvertising, as this practice is known, can exploit software vulnerabilities or dispatch deceptive pop-up messages.
A particularly popular swindle involves an alert that a virus was found on the computer, followed by urgent messages to buy software to remove it. Of course, there is no virus and the security software, known as scareware, is fake. It is a ploy to get credit card numbers and $40 or $50. Scareware accounts for half of all malware delivered in ads, up fivefold from a year ago, Google said.
Closing the pop-up or killing the browser will usually end the episode. But if you encounter this scam, check your PC with trusted security software or Microsoft’s free Malicious Software Removal Tool. If you have picked up something nasty, you are in good company; Microsoft cleaned scareware from 7.8 million PCs in the second half of 2009, up 47 percent from the 5.3 million in the first half, the company said.
Another tool that can defend against malvertising, among other Web threats, is K9 Web Protection, free from Blue Coat Systems. Though it is marketed as parental-control software, K9 can be configured to look only for security threats like malware, spyware and phishing attacks — and to bark each time it stops one.
Poisoned Search Results
Online criminals are also trying to manipulate search engines into placing malicious sites toward the top of results pages for popular keywords. According to a recent Google study, 60 percent of malicious sites that embed hot keywords try to distribute scareware to the computers of visitors.
Google and search engines like Microsoft’s Bing are working to detect malicious sites and remove them from their indexes. Free tools like McAfee’s SiteAdvisor and the Firefox add-on Web of Trust can also help — warning about potentially dangerous links.
Antisocial Media
Attackers also use e-mail, instant messaging, blog comments and social networks like Facebook and Twitter to induce people to visit their sites.
It’s best to accept “friend” requests only from people you know, and to guard your passwords. Phishers are trying to filch login information so they can infiltrate accounts, impersonate you to try to scam others out of money and gather personal information about you and your friends.
Also beware the Koobface worm, variants of which have been taking aim at users of Facebook and other social sites for more than a year. It typically promises a video of some kind and asks you to download a fake multimedia-player codec to view the video. If you do so, your PC is infected with malware that turns it into a zombie (making it part of a botnet, or group of computers, that can spew spam and malware across the Internet).
But most important, you need to keep your wits about you. Criminals are using increasingly sophisticated ploys, and your best defense on the Web may be a healthy level of suspicion.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Five-Ways-to-Keep-Online-nytimes-705997581.html?x=0&.v=1
..On Wednesday May 19, 2010, 7:45 pm EDT
THE Web is a fount of information, a busy marketplace, a thriving social scene — and a den of criminal activity.
Criminals have found abundant opportunities to undertake stealthy attacks on ordinary Web users that can be hard to stop, experts say. Hackers are lacing Web sites — often legitimate ones — with so-called malware, which can silently infiltrate visiting PCs to steal sensitive personal information and then turn the computers into “zombies” that can be used to spew spam and more malware onto the Internet.
At one time, virus attacks were obvious to users, said Alan Paller, director of research at the SANS Institute, a training organization for computer security professionals. He explained that now, the attacks were more silent. “Now it’s much, much easier infecting trusted Web sites,” he said, “and getting your zombies that way.”
And there are myriad lures aimed at conning people into installing nefarious programs, buying fake antivirus software or turning over personal information that can be used in identity fraud.
“The Web opened up a lot more opportunities for attacking” computer users and making money, said Maxim Weinstein, executive director of StopBadware, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group that receives funding from Google, PayPal, Mozilla and others.
Google says its automated scans of the Internet recently turned up malware on roughly 300,000 Web sites, double the number it recorded two years ago. Each site can contain many infected pages. Meanwhile, Malware doubled last year, to 240 million unique attacks, according to Symantec, a maker of security software. And that does not count the scourge of fake antivirus software and other scams.
So it is more important than ever to protect yourself. Here are some basic tips for thwarting them.
Protect the Browser
The most direct line of attack is the browser, said Vincent Weafer, vice president of Symantec Security Response. Online criminals can use programming flaws in browsers to get malware onto PCs in “drive-by” downloads without users ever noticing.
Internet Explorer and Firefox are the most targeted browsers because they are the most popular. If you use current versions, and download security updates as they become available, you can surf safely. But there can still be exposure between when a vulnerability is discovered and an update becomes available, so you will need up-to-date security software as well to try to block any attacks that may emerge, especially if you have a Windows PC.
It can help to use a more obscure browser like Chrome from Google, which also happens to be the newest browser on the market and, as such, includes some security advances that make attacks more difficult.
Get Adobe Updates
Most consumers are familiar with Adobe Reader, for PDF files, and Adobe’s Flash Player. In the last year, a virtual epidemic of attacks has exploited their flaws; almost half of all attacks now come hidden in PDF files, Mr. Weafer said. “No matter what browser you’re using,” he said, “you’re using the PDF Reader, you’re using the Adobe Flash Player.”
Part of the problem is that many computers run old, vulnerable versions. But as of April, it has become easier to get automatic updates from Adobe, if you follow certain steps.
To update Reader, open the application and then select “Help” and “Check for Updates” from the menu bar. Since April, Windows users have been able to choose to get future updates automatically without additional prompts by clicking “Edit” and “Preferences,” then choosing “Updater” from the list and selecting “Automatically install updates.” Mac users can arrange updates using a similar procedure, though Apple requires that they enter their password each time an update is installed.
Adobe said it did not make silent automatic updates available previously because many users, especially at companies, were averse to them. To get the latest version of Flash Player, visit Abobe’s Web site.
Any software can be vulnerable. Windows PC users can identify vulnerable or out-of-date software using Secunia PSI, a free tool that scans machines and alerts users to potential problems.
Beware Malicious Ads
An increasingly popular way to get attacks onto Web sites people trust is to slip them into advertisements, usually by duping small-time ad networks. Malvertising, as this practice is known, can exploit software vulnerabilities or dispatch deceptive pop-up messages.
A particularly popular swindle involves an alert that a virus was found on the computer, followed by urgent messages to buy software to remove it. Of course, there is no virus and the security software, known as scareware, is fake. It is a ploy to get credit card numbers and $40 or $50. Scareware accounts for half of all malware delivered in ads, up fivefold from a year ago, Google said.
Closing the pop-up or killing the browser will usually end the episode. But if you encounter this scam, check your PC with trusted security software or Microsoft’s free Malicious Software Removal Tool. If you have picked up something nasty, you are in good company; Microsoft cleaned scareware from 7.8 million PCs in the second half of 2009, up 47 percent from the 5.3 million in the first half, the company said.
Another tool that can defend against malvertising, among other Web threats, is K9 Web Protection, free from Blue Coat Systems. Though it is marketed as parental-control software, K9 can be configured to look only for security threats like malware, spyware and phishing attacks — and to bark each time it stops one.
Poisoned Search Results
Online criminals are also trying to manipulate search engines into placing malicious sites toward the top of results pages for popular keywords. According to a recent Google study, 60 percent of malicious sites that embed hot keywords try to distribute scareware to the computers of visitors.
Google and search engines like Microsoft’s Bing are working to detect malicious sites and remove them from their indexes. Free tools like McAfee’s SiteAdvisor and the Firefox add-on Web of Trust can also help — warning about potentially dangerous links.
Antisocial Media
Attackers also use e-mail, instant messaging, blog comments and social networks like Facebook and Twitter to induce people to visit their sites.
It’s best to accept “friend” requests only from people you know, and to guard your passwords. Phishers are trying to filch login information so they can infiltrate accounts, impersonate you to try to scam others out of money and gather personal information about you and your friends.
Also beware the Koobface worm, variants of which have been taking aim at users of Facebook and other social sites for more than a year. It typically promises a video of some kind and asks you to download a fake multimedia-player codec to view the video. If you do so, your PC is infected with malware that turns it into a zombie (making it part of a botnet, or group of computers, that can spew spam and malware across the Internet).
But most important, you need to keep your wits about you. Criminals are using increasingly sophisticated ploys, and your best defense on the Web may be a healthy level of suspicion.
毕业即失业 美国华裔学子无奈回炉读书等机会
毕业即失业 美国华裔学子无奈回炉读书等机会
http://news.creaders.net/headline/newsViewer.php?nid=432342&id=984301&dcid=25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
侨报 2010-05-22 14:25:57
据美国《侨报》报道，毕业=失业！美国高企的失业率，徘徊不定的经济形势，让2010年的大学毕业生们，欲出校门，又怕出校门。一些华裔学生，怀揣着名校毕业证书，带着双语人才的光环，求职的时候，也不免要屡屡碰壁。许多的华裔学生，只好选择再度“回锅”，以求双学位或高学位以让自己增加竞争筹码。职业顾问告诫学生们，“一技防身”，把握职业的最新趋势，对于求职才会更加有帮助。
一家私营猎头公司的顾问皮托娃斯(Katy Piotrowski)说，大学毕业生们在2010年当中面临的竞争对手有许多不是自己的同学、同龄人。按照目前的经济情况，许多原以为不会倒闭的公司倒闭了，从来没有想到过失业的人士失业了。因此，公司在招人的时候，他们也会更加慎重地选择。
皮托娃斯同时也是德维尔大学(DeVry University)的学生求职顾问，她说，许多的学生不知道学业与职业的联系是什么，她辅导过很多的学生，让他们认识到“学以致用”不是一句口号。她认为，像德维尔大学这样的职业培训学校，对于学生们的求职很有帮助。因为，大学的高才生，未必可以成为公司创造效益及创新的人。就目前的经济形势下，公司对于新人的要求至少是“马上可以用，不需要培训”。
一位即将在加州大学伯克利分校毕业的华裔学生陈小姐，从3年级开始就计划了自己的求职道路，她在网上完成了“基本的会计”证书，外加毕业于名校金融专业，在其他同学还在等待毕业证书的时候，她就找到一份以初级会计为起点的工作。陈小姐说，她很满意自己的选择，因为自己可以至少不会面临“毕业=失业”的局面，而且她不愿意再呆在学校修双学位或者是高学位，她可以边工作边学习，也好减轻家里的负担，让准备退休的父母可以好好享受生活了。
位于帕沙迪纳的一家职业顾问公司的麦凯希(Robin McCarthy)说，虽然这个区域的工作机会时常会有，但是通常来说，一个职位会面临1：300的局面。
一些业主，看到太多的求职人，一时间也失去了选择的标准，往往提高了对求职者的要求。因此，他建议学生“一技防身”十分重要，再度“回锅”的时候，也要瞄准了未来的实用性。
在南加州大学上3年级的米雪，准备让父母再花上6万美元，让她可以在学校完成双学位。她说，看到许多毕业的同学找工作艰辛万分，让她自己还没有勇气来面对一封封的求职与被拒绝的信件。多念一年，一方面充实自己，一方面也许2年以后的经济环境已经改变了。
http://news.creaders.net/headline/newsViewer.php?nid=432342&id=984301&dcid=25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
侨报 2010-05-22 14:25:57
据美国《侨报》报道，毕业=失业！美国高企的失业率，徘徊不定的经济形势，让2010年的大学毕业生们，欲出校门，又怕出校门。一些华裔学生，怀揣着名校毕业证书，带着双语人才的光环，求职的时候，也不免要屡屡碰壁。许多的华裔学生，只好选择再度“回锅”，以求双学位或高学位以让自己增加竞争筹码。职业顾问告诫学生们，“一技防身”，把握职业的最新趋势，对于求职才会更加有帮助。
一家私营猎头公司的顾问皮托娃斯(Katy Piotrowski)说，大学毕业生们在2010年当中面临的竞争对手有许多不是自己的同学、同龄人。按照目前的经济情况，许多原以为不会倒闭的公司倒闭了，从来没有想到过失业的人士失业了。因此，公司在招人的时候，他们也会更加慎重地选择。
皮托娃斯同时也是德维尔大学(DeVry University)的学生求职顾问，她说，许多的学生不知道学业与职业的联系是什么，她辅导过很多的学生，让他们认识到“学以致用”不是一句口号。她认为，像德维尔大学这样的职业培训学校，对于学生们的求职很有帮助。因为，大学的高才生，未必可以成为公司创造效益及创新的人。就目前的经济形势下，公司对于新人的要求至少是“马上可以用，不需要培训”。
一位即将在加州大学伯克利分校毕业的华裔学生陈小姐，从3年级开始就计划了自己的求职道路，她在网上完成了“基本的会计”证书，外加毕业于名校金融专业，在其他同学还在等待毕业证书的时候，她就找到一份以初级会计为起点的工作。陈小姐说，她很满意自己的选择，因为自己可以至少不会面临“毕业=失业”的局面，而且她不愿意再呆在学校修双学位或者是高学位，她可以边工作边学习，也好减轻家里的负担，让准备退休的父母可以好好享受生活了。
位于帕沙迪纳的一家职业顾问公司的麦凯希(Robin McCarthy)说，虽然这个区域的工作机会时常会有，但是通常来说，一个职位会面临1：300的局面。
一些业主，看到太多的求职人，一时间也失去了选择的标准，往往提高了对求职者的要求。因此，他建议学生“一技防身”十分重要，再度“回锅”的时候，也要瞄准了未来的实用性。
在南加州大学上3年级的米雪，准备让父母再花上6万美元，让她可以在学校完成双学位。她说，看到许多毕业的同学找工作艰辛万分，让她自己还没有勇气来面对一封封的求职与被拒绝的信件。多念一年，一方面充实自己，一方面也许2年以后的经济环境已经改变了。
Friday, May 21, 2010
女人和钱：不可不知的36条硬道理
女人和钱：不可不知的36条硬道理 2010-05-20 07:18:16
（1） 和没有经济基础的男人结婚，是一种冒险，即便将来他事业成功了，也会去找年轻女人，那时你已经失去竞争能力，去找谁？
（2） “千万不能嫁给那些爱乱花钱、爱赌钱、爱喝酒和不爱储蓄的男人，这种人即便现在有钱，将来也会变穷，你会被他拖累。”
（3）“和有钱人结婚致富，比自己奋斗致富要快得多。”
（4） 现代婚姻可以分两步走。第一步争取找一个有钱人嫁了；第二步等自己有了钱，再寻找自己心目中的‘白马王子’。”
（5）有钱未必能搞定女人，但是没有钱肯定搞不定。
（6） 有钱未必能搞定女人，要看你出价多少。
（7） 80%的女人可以用钱搞定，20%的女人不能用钱搞定，因为她们比你更有钱。
（8）女人需要爱，而爱是用钱来度量的。
（9）经典的问题：“你养得起我吗？”
（10）经典的责问：“难道你要我跟你喝西北风？”
（11）经典的许诺：“如果你有车子和房子，我现在就和你结婚。”
（12）外国经典：No money? No Honey! （没有钱就没有蜜糖！）
（13）你在我身上花多少钱，说明你爱我有几分；你不肯在我身上花钱，说明钱对你比我重要。
（14）就算搞定了也未必能持久，她的欲望比你的钱膨胀更快。
（15）既然男人都可以用钱搞定，女人用钱搞定有何不可？
（16）生活所迫嘛，这是没有办法的事情。巧妇难为无米之炊嘛。
（17）女人分两种，聪明的现在就可以用钱搞定，迟钝的要等将来才可以用钱搞 定。
（18）没钱可以搞定自己不喜欢的女人，有钱可以搞定自己喜欢的女人。
（19）有钱就能搞定的女人我不要，但是我要的女人都需要我有钱。
（20）经济是基础，这是真理。
（21）女人可以用钱搞定，钱可以用女人搞定。
（22）女人可以用钱搞定，男人可以用女人搞钱。
（23）女人需要安全感，有钱才有安全感！
（24）不要钱的女人当然有，她是不食人间烟火的月里嫦娥。
（25）有钱的男人对女人既讲情也讲钱，没钱的男人对女人只讲情不讲钱。
（26）缺钱的女人可以用钱搞定，不缺钱的女人不能用钱搞定。
（27）男人在女人面前：有钱一条龙，没钱一条虫。
（28）男人有钱才硬得起来。
（29）与其等你将来有了钱去找年轻女人，不如让我有了钱将来去找年轻男人。
（30）眼光短浅的女人先讲情后讲钱，眼光长远的女人先讲钱后讲情。
（31）爱情只能管一时，面包却能管一辈子。
（32）女人喜欢有钱的男人，男人更喜欢有钱的女人。
（33）如果黄世仁生活在现代，家庭环境优越，可能是个外表潇洒、很风雅的人。 加上有钱，为什么不能嫁给他呢？即便是年纪大一点也不要紧。
（34）如果我嫁给有钱人‘黄世仁’，可以拿他的钱捐给慈善事业，帮助有需要的 人。
（35）爱上一个富人，和爱上一个穷人一样容易，为什么非要去爱一个穷人？
（36）没钱就能搞定女人的那种男人，一定很不简单。
（1） 和没有经济基础的男人结婚，是一种冒险，即便将来他事业成功了，也会去找年轻女人，那时你已经失去竞争能力，去找谁？
（2） “千万不能嫁给那些爱乱花钱、爱赌钱、爱喝酒和不爱储蓄的男人，这种人即便现在有钱，将来也会变穷，你会被他拖累。”
（3）“和有钱人结婚致富，比自己奋斗致富要快得多。”
（4） 现代婚姻可以分两步走。第一步争取找一个有钱人嫁了；第二步等自己有了钱，再寻找自己心目中的‘白马王子’。”
（5）有钱未必能搞定女人，但是没有钱肯定搞不定。
（6） 有钱未必能搞定女人，要看你出价多少。
（7） 80%的女人可以用钱搞定，20%的女人不能用钱搞定，因为她们比你更有钱。
（8）女人需要爱，而爱是用钱来度量的。
（9）经典的问题：“你养得起我吗？”
（10）经典的责问：“难道你要我跟你喝西北风？”
（11）经典的许诺：“如果你有车子和房子，我现在就和你结婚。”
（12）外国经典：No money? No Honey! （没有钱就没有蜜糖！）
（13）你在我身上花多少钱，说明你爱我有几分；你不肯在我身上花钱，说明钱对你比我重要。
（14）就算搞定了也未必能持久，她的欲望比你的钱膨胀更快。
（15）既然男人都可以用钱搞定，女人用钱搞定有何不可？
（16）生活所迫嘛，这是没有办法的事情。巧妇难为无米之炊嘛。
（17）女人分两种，聪明的现在就可以用钱搞定，迟钝的要等将来才可以用钱搞 定。
（18）没钱可以搞定自己不喜欢的女人，有钱可以搞定自己喜欢的女人。
（19）有钱就能搞定的女人我不要，但是我要的女人都需要我有钱。
（20）经济是基础，这是真理。
（21）女人可以用钱搞定，钱可以用女人搞定。
（22）女人可以用钱搞定，男人可以用女人搞钱。
（23）女人需要安全感，有钱才有安全感！
（24）不要钱的女人当然有，她是不食人间烟火的月里嫦娥。
（25）有钱的男人对女人既讲情也讲钱，没钱的男人对女人只讲情不讲钱。
（26）缺钱的女人可以用钱搞定，不缺钱的女人不能用钱搞定。
（27）男人在女人面前：有钱一条龙，没钱一条虫。
（28）男人有钱才硬得起来。
（29）与其等你将来有了钱去找年轻女人，不如让我有了钱将来去找年轻男人。
（30）眼光短浅的女人先讲情后讲钱，眼光长远的女人先讲钱后讲情。
（31）爱情只能管一时，面包却能管一辈子。
（32）女人喜欢有钱的男人，男人更喜欢有钱的女人。
（33）如果黄世仁生活在现代，家庭环境优越，可能是个外表潇洒、很风雅的人。 加上有钱，为什么不能嫁给他呢？即便是年纪大一点也不要紧。
（34）如果我嫁给有钱人‘黄世仁’，可以拿他的钱捐给慈善事业，帮助有需要的 人。
（35）爱上一个富人，和爱上一个穷人一样容易，为什么非要去爱一个穷人？
（36）没钱就能搞定女人的那种男人，一定很不简单。
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Secretive speed traders in spotlight after crash
Secretive speed traders in spotlight after crash
Even before crash, high frequency traders shook markets with penny bets at millisecond speeds
Buzz up! 284 Print..Companies:Goldman Sachs Group Inc..
FILE - In this May 6, 2010 file photo, traders from Barclays Capital work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, in New York. Using super-fast computers, high-frequency traders in effect bend down to pick up pennies lying about in the stock market, then do it again, sometimes thousands of times a second. (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams, File)
Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
GS 143.23 -1.42
{"s" : "gs","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} Bernard Condon, AP Business Writer, On Saturday May 15, 2010, 12:31 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- If you saw a penny on the sidewalk, would you pick it up?
You may think it's not worth the effort, but a breed of investors who have been in the news do. Using super-fast computers, high-frequency traders in effect bend down to pick up pennies lying about in the stock market -- then do it again, sometimes thousands of times a second.
More than a week after the Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 1,000 points, its biggest intraday drop ever, regulators are still sifting through buy and sell orders to figure out what sparked it. One big focus are orders placed by high-frequency traders, or HFTs, and for good reason. These quick-buck firms barely existed a few years ago but now account for two-thirds of all U.S. stock trading.
In other words, all those TV pictures of the stately New York Stock Exchange building on the evening news are an illusion. The real action on Wall Street is far away in Kansas City, Mo., and in New Jersey, in towns like Carteret and Red Bank, where HFTs named Tradebot and Wolverine and Tradeworx ply their trade.
High-frequency trading firms, which number over 100, use computers programmed with complex mathematical formulas to comb markets for securities priced too high or too low because traders haven't had to time to react to the latest data. The computers then buy or sell in a split second, locking in a profit.
The opportunities seem hardly worth noting. They're not just fleeting, but small, often a penny or less.
But those pennies can add up to a lot of money, enough to draw the attention of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the giant Chicago hedge fund Citadel Investment and other big financial firms. In recent years they've paid hundreds of millions of dollars for stakes in high-frequency trading companies.
The money has stoked what was already fierce competition among the firms for a leg up.
To spot opportunities and act on them before others, HFTs are constantly hunting for faster computers. They also locate themselves close to the big exchanges' data centers. That can cut their trade times by milliseconds.
One way these traders make money is by exploiting the fact that stock indexes sometimes don't immediately reflect falling or rising prices of their component stocks, said Manoj Narang, chief executive at Tradeworx of Red Bank, N.J. If Microsoft shares rise 5 percent but an index fund that includes it such as the SPDR S&P 500 lags by a fraction of second to adjust, his computers will automatically buy shares of SPDR S&P 500 at the lower price and then sell them again when they are fully valued.
Or maybe Microsoft is trading in London at a penny less than it's trading at the same moment in New York. A high-frequency trader will buy shares in London and wait for them to rise.
Since the discrepancy lasts a mere fraction of a second, speed is key.
Narang boasts it takes only 15 millionth of a second for his computers to place a buy or sell order after detecting an opportunity.
Or, as he puts it, "If you try to pick up the penny, we'll probably beat you to it."
So is that good or bad for the market?
If you listen to HFTs, all their fast trading benefits big and small investors alike. More trading means more bids and asks for shares, and that cuts the time needed to find someone willing to buy what you're selling or vice versa. Costs also fall. With more bids and asks, the difference between the price you seek and the price offered (what traders call the "spread") will likely narrow. You get to keep more of your money.
High-frequency traders see themselves as part of a long tradition of using technology to shake up Wall Street.
For decades an order to buy or sell a security went to a person in a trader's jacket standing on the floor of an exchange, often at the NYSE in Lower Manhattan. If you wanted to sell stock in General Electric, for instance, these so-called specialists would find a buyer. If they couldn't find one, they bought it themselves.
In exchange for their services, the specialists pocketed some of the difference between the price at which you were willing to buy and the price at which a GE holder was willing to sell.
This system came under attack in the early 1980s from Nasdaq, a rival marketplace for stocks, which began using computers to make trades. The pitch was it could match buyers and sellers faster than humans, and for less money.
Then, starting in the late '90s, the NYSE specialists got hit again, this time with a series of blows: new rules encouraging computer matching of buyers and sellers, a shift to quote stock prices in minute increments of decimals instead of fractions, and a decision to cut the minimum spread that specialists or other middlemen could grab for themselves from 6.25 cents per share to a penny.
"It used to be an oligopoly, an old boy's club," said Irene Aldridge, head of an HFT shop called Able Alpha Trading and author of "High-Frequency Trading." "But now it's a completely level field."
Critics of high-frequency trading say all this talk about narrowing spreads for ordinary investors distracts from a key problem: Split-second trading without human supervision is a recipe for disaster
Exhibit A: the May 6 crash.
One theory about the drop is that, unlike the NYSE, the new exchanges and trading networks catering to HFTs didn't apply any "circuit breakers." These are designed to halt trading momentarily during a freefall to stop selling from feeding on itself.
In others words, without circuit breakers the computers went crazy.
Another theory holds that it wasn't quick-fire trading by HFTs that made things worse but a lack of it. Some reportedly pulled back when stocks started dropping, removing liquidity when it was needed the most.
Whatever the answer, this much is true: These secretive firms are likely to grab the spotlight for a while now. And their trading might get even more frenetic.
After the May 6 freefall, all manner of trading rules are up for debate. But it's worth noting that until recently regulators were considering cutting the minimum spread again, possibly to half a penny.
"People will be needing even better computers," said author Aldridge.
Even before crash, high frequency traders shook markets with penny bets at millisecond speeds
Buzz up! 284 Print..Companies:Goldman Sachs Group Inc..
FILE - In this May 6, 2010 file photo, traders from Barclays Capital work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, in New York. Using super-fast computers, high-frequency traders in effect bend down to pick up pennies lying about in the stock market, then do it again, sometimes thousands of times a second. (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams, File)
Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
GS 143.23 -1.42
{"s" : "gs","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} Bernard Condon, AP Business Writer, On Saturday May 15, 2010, 12:31 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- If you saw a penny on the sidewalk, would you pick it up?
You may think it's not worth the effort, but a breed of investors who have been in the news do. Using super-fast computers, high-frequency traders in effect bend down to pick up pennies lying about in the stock market -- then do it again, sometimes thousands of times a second.
More than a week after the Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 1,000 points, its biggest intraday drop ever, regulators are still sifting through buy and sell orders to figure out what sparked it. One big focus are orders placed by high-frequency traders, or HFTs, and for good reason. These quick-buck firms barely existed a few years ago but now account for two-thirds of all U.S. stock trading.
In other words, all those TV pictures of the stately New York Stock Exchange building on the evening news are an illusion. The real action on Wall Street is far away in Kansas City, Mo., and in New Jersey, in towns like Carteret and Red Bank, where HFTs named Tradebot and Wolverine and Tradeworx ply their trade.
High-frequency trading firms, which number over 100, use computers programmed with complex mathematical formulas to comb markets for securities priced too high or too low because traders haven't had to time to react to the latest data. The computers then buy or sell in a split second, locking in a profit.
The opportunities seem hardly worth noting. They're not just fleeting, but small, often a penny or less.
But those pennies can add up to a lot of money, enough to draw the attention of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the giant Chicago hedge fund Citadel Investment and other big financial firms. In recent years they've paid hundreds of millions of dollars for stakes in high-frequency trading companies.
The money has stoked what was already fierce competition among the firms for a leg up.
To spot opportunities and act on them before others, HFTs are constantly hunting for faster computers. They also locate themselves close to the big exchanges' data centers. That can cut their trade times by milliseconds.
One way these traders make money is by exploiting the fact that stock indexes sometimes don't immediately reflect falling or rising prices of their component stocks, said Manoj Narang, chief executive at Tradeworx of Red Bank, N.J. If Microsoft shares rise 5 percent but an index fund that includes it such as the SPDR S&P 500 lags by a fraction of second to adjust, his computers will automatically buy shares of SPDR S&P 500 at the lower price and then sell them again when they are fully valued.
Or maybe Microsoft is trading in London at a penny less than it's trading at the same moment in New York. A high-frequency trader will buy shares in London and wait for them to rise.
Since the discrepancy lasts a mere fraction of a second, speed is key.
Narang boasts it takes only 15 millionth of a second for his computers to place a buy or sell order after detecting an opportunity.
Or, as he puts it, "If you try to pick up the penny, we'll probably beat you to it."
So is that good or bad for the market?
If you listen to HFTs, all their fast trading benefits big and small investors alike. More trading means more bids and asks for shares, and that cuts the time needed to find someone willing to buy what you're selling or vice versa. Costs also fall. With more bids and asks, the difference between the price you seek and the price offered (what traders call the "spread") will likely narrow. You get to keep more of your money.
High-frequency traders see themselves as part of a long tradition of using technology to shake up Wall Street.
For decades an order to buy or sell a security went to a person in a trader's jacket standing on the floor of an exchange, often at the NYSE in Lower Manhattan. If you wanted to sell stock in General Electric, for instance, these so-called specialists would find a buyer. If they couldn't find one, they bought it themselves.
In exchange for their services, the specialists pocketed some of the difference between the price at which you were willing to buy and the price at which a GE holder was willing to sell.
This system came under attack in the early 1980s from Nasdaq, a rival marketplace for stocks, which began using computers to make trades. The pitch was it could match buyers and sellers faster than humans, and for less money.
Then, starting in the late '90s, the NYSE specialists got hit again, this time with a series of blows: new rules encouraging computer matching of buyers and sellers, a shift to quote stock prices in minute increments of decimals instead of fractions, and a decision to cut the minimum spread that specialists or other middlemen could grab for themselves from 6.25 cents per share to a penny.
"It used to be an oligopoly, an old boy's club," said Irene Aldridge, head of an HFT shop called Able Alpha Trading and author of "High-Frequency Trading." "But now it's a completely level field."
Critics of high-frequency trading say all this talk about narrowing spreads for ordinary investors distracts from a key problem: Split-second trading without human supervision is a recipe for disaster
Exhibit A: the May 6 crash.
One theory about the drop is that, unlike the NYSE, the new exchanges and trading networks catering to HFTs didn't apply any "circuit breakers." These are designed to halt trading momentarily during a freefall to stop selling from feeding on itself.
In others words, without circuit breakers the computers went crazy.
Another theory holds that it wasn't quick-fire trading by HFTs that made things worse but a lack of it. Some reportedly pulled back when stocks started dropping, removing liquidity when it was needed the most.
Whatever the answer, this much is true: These secretive firms are likely to grab the spotlight for a while now. And their trading might get even more frenetic.
After the May 6 freefall, all manner of trading rules are up for debate. But it's worth noting that until recently regulators were considering cutting the minimum spread again, possibly to half a penny.
"People will be needing even better computers," said author Aldridge.
Could Online Hackers Steal Your Cash?
Could Online Hackers Steal Your Cash?
Saturday, May 15, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgetingk/article/109549/could-online-hackers-steal-your-cash?mod=bb-checking_savings
When you access your bank account online you probably don't think that at that exact moment there may be a hacker, somewhere in the world, trying to steal your bank information and your money.
More from Bankrate.com:
• Beware the Risks of Joint Bank Accounts
• A Cheat Sheet on Tipping Do's and Don'ts
• Learn Grocery Pricing Secrets and Save
Your bank offers secure online banking, so why should you worry, right?
Despite banks' efforts to protect accounts from the online crooks, hacker attacks remain a serious threat that cost Americans millions of dollars each year. The Internet Crime Complaint Center reported that Americans lost about $559 million to Internet thieves in 2009. That is more than twice the 2008 figure, when $268 million was stolen on the Internet, according to the center.
"Last year there were more online bank robberies than there were actual on-site bank robberies," says Sean Sullivan, a security adviser at F-Secure, an Internet security firm. "Banks have become very proactive in protecting accounts from hackers, but it's still quite a large problem. We see all types of new attempts every day."
Popular Stories on Yahoo!:
• Video: From Homeless to CEO
• Lost Jobs That Are Never Coming Back
• Inside the Estate of a Dow Jones Magnate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More from Yahoo! Finance
Biggest Threat
Banking Trojans -- malicious code specifically designed for banking fraud -- are one of the biggest threats to consumers who bank online, Sullivan says. They are invisible and can steal multiple types of data, including passwords. Some more advanced types of Trojans can make fraudulent transfers and drain your account while you are logged on to the account online, he says.
Is Your Bank Safe?
The more questions and passwords you are asked to enter in order to log in to your account, the safer is your bank's website.
If your bank only asks you to enter a username and password to log in its website is not as secure as it should be, Sullivan says.
Some banks require customers to create a username, a site key name and use personalized pictures or symbols that appear during the login process. In addition, banks should ask customers to answer a security question before gaining access to their account.
"The more layers you have before you get to your account, the safer you are," Sullivan says.
Who's Liable?
In the event you become a victim of online theft, act quickly and know your rights. The general rule for consumer checking and savings accounts is the bank is liable for most of the damage, as long as you report the illicit transfer in a timely manner. But if you have a line of credit account or a business account, you need to be extra careful, because the bank will not always be obligated to pay for your loss.
"It is based on whether the customer's conduct with respect to security was reasonable," he says. In that case the court will ultimately determine who was more at fault for the breach -- the bank or the consumer.
Business Accounts
Business accounts are the most vulnerable to hacker attacks and the least protected by the law. Hackers are much more inclined to break into a six-figure business account than a consumer account with a few thousand dollars, Sullivan says.
"There are hundreds of cases of thefts of money from small business deposit accounts each year," Johnson says.
Business accounts are regulated by the Uniform Commercial Code, or UCC, which requires banks to maintain "commercial reasonable authentication security procedures," in any kind of wire transfer, he says.
"If the bank can show the breach was caused by something the customer did the bank is not liable," Johnson says.
California attorney Nada Alnajafi says most small businesses don't understand the risk they are taking when they use wire-transfer accounts.
"I don't think a lot of them understand they are taking almost full risk for any potential issues," she says.
She is representing a small Los Angeles business owner who lost $50,000 after a hacker committed a fraudulent transfer from his Bank of America account to a Croatian Bank. She filed a lawsuit on behalf of her client against Bank of America in February because the bank refused to take responsibility for the theft, she says.
Bank of America claims it is not liable for the illicit transfer. The lawsuit is pending.
How to Help Protect Your Account
• Don't access your account from a shared computer.
• Be certain your computer has anti-virus, firewall and anti-spyware programs, including security software with automatic updates.
• If you are using wireless service, check the settings on your computer to make sure the connection is encrypted. Don't connect to your account using a public network, like the ones you find at a coffee shop or at the airport.
• Review your statements regularly and carefully, and report any suspicious activity to your bank immediately.
• Use a strong password with letters and numbers combined. Don't use the same password for multiple accounts.
• Log out after every session.
Copyrighted, Bankrate.com. All rights reserved.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgetingk/article/109549/could-online-hackers-steal-your-cash?mod=bb-checking_savings
When you access your bank account online you probably don't think that at that exact moment there may be a hacker, somewhere in the world, trying to steal your bank information and your money.
More from Bankrate.com:
• Beware the Risks of Joint Bank Accounts
• A Cheat Sheet on Tipping Do's and Don'ts
• Learn Grocery Pricing Secrets and Save
Your bank offers secure online banking, so why should you worry, right?
Despite banks' efforts to protect accounts from the online crooks, hacker attacks remain a serious threat that cost Americans millions of dollars each year. The Internet Crime Complaint Center reported that Americans lost about $559 million to Internet thieves in 2009. That is more than twice the 2008 figure, when $268 million was stolen on the Internet, according to the center.
"Last year there were more online bank robberies than there were actual on-site bank robberies," says Sean Sullivan, a security adviser at F-Secure, an Internet security firm. "Banks have become very proactive in protecting accounts from hackers, but it's still quite a large problem. We see all types of new attempts every day."
Popular Stories on Yahoo!:
• Video: From Homeless to CEO
• Lost Jobs That Are Never Coming Back
• Inside the Estate of a Dow Jones Magnate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More from Yahoo! Finance
Biggest Threat
Banking Trojans -- malicious code specifically designed for banking fraud -- are one of the biggest threats to consumers who bank online, Sullivan says. They are invisible and can steal multiple types of data, including passwords. Some more advanced types of Trojans can make fraudulent transfers and drain your account while you are logged on to the account online, he says.
Is Your Bank Safe?
The more questions and passwords you are asked to enter in order to log in to your account, the safer is your bank's website.
If your bank only asks you to enter a username and password to log in its website is not as secure as it should be, Sullivan says.
Some banks require customers to create a username, a site key name and use personalized pictures or symbols that appear during the login process. In addition, banks should ask customers to answer a security question before gaining access to their account.
"The more layers you have before you get to your account, the safer you are," Sullivan says.
Who's Liable?
In the event you become a victim of online theft, act quickly and know your rights. The general rule for consumer checking and savings accounts is the bank is liable for most of the damage, as long as you report the illicit transfer in a timely manner. But if you have a line of credit account or a business account, you need to be extra careful, because the bank will not always be obligated to pay for your loss.
"It is based on whether the customer's conduct with respect to security was reasonable," he says. In that case the court will ultimately determine who was more at fault for the breach -- the bank or the consumer.
Business Accounts
Business accounts are the most vulnerable to hacker attacks and the least protected by the law. Hackers are much more inclined to break into a six-figure business account than a consumer account with a few thousand dollars, Sullivan says.
"There are hundreds of cases of thefts of money from small business deposit accounts each year," Johnson says.
Business accounts are regulated by the Uniform Commercial Code, or UCC, which requires banks to maintain "commercial reasonable authentication security procedures," in any kind of wire transfer, he says.
"If the bank can show the breach was caused by something the customer did the bank is not liable," Johnson says.
California attorney Nada Alnajafi says most small businesses don't understand the risk they are taking when they use wire-transfer accounts.
"I don't think a lot of them understand they are taking almost full risk for any potential issues," she says.
She is representing a small Los Angeles business owner who lost $50,000 after a hacker committed a fraudulent transfer from his Bank of America account to a Croatian Bank. She filed a lawsuit on behalf of her client against Bank of America in February because the bank refused to take responsibility for the theft, she says.
Bank of America claims it is not liable for the illicit transfer. The lawsuit is pending.
How to Help Protect Your Account
• Don't access your account from a shared computer.
• Be certain your computer has anti-virus, firewall and anti-spyware programs, including security software with automatic updates.
• If you are using wireless service, check the settings on your computer to make sure the connection is encrypted. Don't connect to your account using a public network, like the ones you find at a coffee shop or at the airport.
• Review your statements regularly and carefully, and report any suspicious activity to your bank immediately.
• Use a strong password with letters and numbers combined. Don't use the same password for multiple accounts.
• Log out after every session.
Copyrighted, Bankrate.com. All rights reserved.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
汇丰银行金融衍生品血洗中国富豪
http://news.creaders.net/photo/newsViewer.php?nid=431324&id=982310&aid=14
汇丰银行金融衍生品血洗中国富豪
法律界人士认为，监管部门应该暂停这样的产品销售
高盛、摩根士丹利纷纷因金融衍生品诈骗而遭到调查为人们敲响警钟。无独有偶，中国富豪们通
过银行理财，不但自己的上亿身家赔得干干净净，更欠下银行巨额债务。内地商人郝婷倒欠星展银行9000万港元，中国女首富杨慧妍亏损12亿人民币，前中国证监会首席顾问梁定邦被花旗追讨970万港元。这些被血洗的投资客，不乏在资本市场翻手云覆手雨的精明玩家，现在却只能被这些投资机构宰割。
“金融鸦片”的真实面孔
“双利存款”是汇丰的一款金融衍生品，该产品说是存款，实则是一种投资的期权产品，有很高的风险。并且与储户签的是存款确认函而不是期权确认函。
汇丰银行根据文化差异的不同特设此产品，让国人从字面上理解为就是一种存款方式。无数储户的巨额财产在一夜间被洗劫一空，还欠下银行巨额债务。
KODA(Knock-OutDiscountAccumulator)是一项跟股票挂钩的风险极高的复杂金融衍生品，翻译成中文就是“累计期权合约”，其特点是收益有限，风险无限。在国际上，打折股票被称为“金融鸦片”；而在香港，Accumulato则被形象地解读为“IKillyoulater(我迟早会杀了你)”。2007年，香港的GDP总量也才1600亿美元，但投行出售的累股期权值就高达1000多亿美元。据香港投行人士分析，这些合约一半以上都卖给了内地投资者，特别是民营企业家和企业高管群体，使得他们的数百亿财富化为泡影。
“KODA”其实是一种累积期权合约，常见的投资标的资产为股票、贵金属和外汇等，产品本身肯定有问题，是一款银行不需要向投资者支付权利金的‘畸形’的、不平等的期权产品。中欧国际工商学院金融学教授赵欣舸博士这样认为。
之所以被指不平等条约，就在于KODA是一款名为期权却违背期权本质的产品，通常我们所熟知的期权简单来说，就是通过花费一笔权利金而获得一个在一定期限后按约定价格买入或卖出标的物的权利，这个权利可以行使，更可以放弃。虽然KODA提供了投资者低于市价购买股票的权利，但是到达取消价合约就终止了，也就是说收益有限。而投资者提供给银行的却是一个不论市价跌至多少都按行权价购买，且加倍购买股票的权利，由于这两个权利代表的利益不对等，所以投资者在签订合同时就应该从银行那拿到一笔权利金。
国内富豪“哀鸿遍野”
2007年，上海商人金京购买了1000股股票，被“吸走”上千万资产。其受害过程是：汇丰银行一位姓汤的理财顾问只用了10分钟给金先生打了一个电话，连产品本身是什么都没向金先生介绍。
银行这位姓汤的理财顾问让金先生买1000股试试，并且按照金先生的说法，购买50万股中国铝业，也未经金先生同意，银行这位理财顾问就盲目代理金先生购买，最后导致金京上千万资产损失。
2008年，汇丰银行遭到受害者方先生起诉，要求索赔600万，与汇丰银行打官司。方先生在汇丰银行购买的“双利存款”产品，让方先生损失了35万元。据受害者讲诉：汇丰银行北京燕莎支行一位姓张的理财主任找到方先生，不但没有详细介绍产品，甚至连签的合同都没有留给方先生。在签订合同时还故意借口文件没有事先装订好，把文件散落一桌，只是不时抽出一张让方先生例行公事的签字。受害后，方先生才质疑：当初办的是“双利存款”业务，并签订有“双利存款确认函”，到后来怎么又变成了“双利理财”这么一项集定期存款与期权投资的理财产品了?
2008年，汇丰银行还遭到一为姓马的女士起诉。这位马女士与方先生几乎同样的遭遇。她在汇丰银行燕莎支行购买的是“双利存款”产品，当时也认为是存款业务，结果却成了期权产品，并且当时理财顾问也没有给马女士提供产品说明书，签字合同也由银行保存。在马女士起诉汇丰银行后，在法庭上，汇丰银行才拿出产品的内部说明书。据相关知情者透露，马女士与汇丰银行打官司的过程中，汇丰银行找人与马女士和解，最终马女士才不再上诉。
受害者还有赖建平、郝婷、金亮、碧桂园女老板、荣智健、中国东航等。
很多KODA产品苦主，大多都是通过人际关系与香港的银行建立联系，或是银行理财人员主动上门，或是苦主经过几层朋友关系与香港银行取得联系。他们的共同点是：户籍大多为本港、中国内地；账户上有较大数目存款。香港私人银行获得账户信息主要有以下途径：从内地的分行营业部获取或直接在香港开户的账户中查找。
几乎所有苦主都是带着这种对外资银行近乎仰慕的信任，购买了这些当时自己根本摸不清门道的理财产品。
被绞杀几时休？
继高盛被指控诈骗投资者后，大型投资行摩根士丹利也卷入调查，美国联邦调查员怀疑大摩是高盛案翻版，销售其设计的按揭衍生产品时误导投资者，并与投资者对赌，现正调查事件。有分析认为，这是奥巴马在对金融危机的始作俑者“秋后算账”。但是，在美国投资者权益获得保护的同时，国内的金融衍生品受害者却尚无法保护自己的权益。
中国政法大学民商法学院管晓峰教授认为：“当我国的法律资源无法解决那些似有欺诈嫌疑的金融产品交易引发的争议时，监管部门应该暂停这样的产品销售。这些产品设计非常不公平，双方面对的风险几率严重不对等，银行承担的风险是有限的，但是投资者承担的风险是无限的，更为不公平的是即使买方发现产品面临巨大的风险时，也无权要求银行停止交易。对这种明显不公平的金融产品，应当等具有较完备的法律资源解决争议时才能销售，目前我国还的确不具备销售这些高风险金融产品的法律条件。”
更何况，这样无限的风险并未完全告知投资者。
“如果他给我提示风险了，我肯定不买，因为我的家庭跟其他的家庭真的不一样，我的儿子12岁，他需要长期的24小时的监护，他没有学习能力，以后更没有工作能力，需要以后的生活保证。我丈夫买一条领带花236块钱，他都退掉。我们攒一点钱很不容易的，过去经常工作到夜里两点。如果给我提示风险了，打死我，我也不会买！”齐鹏的太太成女士哭诉。
苦主黄女士也称：“交易的第一天他没跟我说这是多高的风险，他一句没说。”
昨日，记者致电汇丰银行，截至记者发稿，对方并未给与记者明确答复。
汇丰银行金融衍生品血洗中国富豪
法律界人士认为，监管部门应该暂停这样的产品销售
高盛、摩根士丹利纷纷因金融衍生品诈骗而遭到调查为人们敲响警钟。无独有偶，中国富豪们通
过银行理财，不但自己的上亿身家赔得干干净净，更欠下银行巨额债务。内地商人郝婷倒欠星展银行9000万港元，中国女首富杨慧妍亏损12亿人民币，前中国证监会首席顾问梁定邦被花旗追讨970万港元。这些被血洗的投资客，不乏在资本市场翻手云覆手雨的精明玩家，现在却只能被这些投资机构宰割。
“金融鸦片”的真实面孔
“双利存款”是汇丰的一款金融衍生品，该产品说是存款，实则是一种投资的期权产品，有很高的风险。并且与储户签的是存款确认函而不是期权确认函。
汇丰银行根据文化差异的不同特设此产品，让国人从字面上理解为就是一种存款方式。无数储户的巨额财产在一夜间被洗劫一空，还欠下银行巨额债务。
KODA(Knock-OutDiscountAccumulator)是一项跟股票挂钩的风险极高的复杂金融衍生品，翻译成中文就是“累计期权合约”，其特点是收益有限，风险无限。在国际上，打折股票被称为“金融鸦片”；而在香港，Accumulato则被形象地解读为“IKillyoulater(我迟早会杀了你)”。2007年，香港的GDP总量也才1600亿美元，但投行出售的累股期权值就高达1000多亿美元。据香港投行人士分析，这些合约一半以上都卖给了内地投资者，特别是民营企业家和企业高管群体，使得他们的数百亿财富化为泡影。
“KODA”其实是一种累积期权合约，常见的投资标的资产为股票、贵金属和外汇等，产品本身肯定有问题，是一款银行不需要向投资者支付权利金的‘畸形’的、不平等的期权产品。中欧国际工商学院金融学教授赵欣舸博士这样认为。
之所以被指不平等条约，就在于KODA是一款名为期权却违背期权本质的产品，通常我们所熟知的期权简单来说，就是通过花费一笔权利金而获得一个在一定期限后按约定价格买入或卖出标的物的权利，这个权利可以行使，更可以放弃。虽然KODA提供了投资者低于市价购买股票的权利，但是到达取消价合约就终止了，也就是说收益有限。而投资者提供给银行的却是一个不论市价跌至多少都按行权价购买，且加倍购买股票的权利，由于这两个权利代表的利益不对等，所以投资者在签订合同时就应该从银行那拿到一笔权利金。
国内富豪“哀鸿遍野”
2007年，上海商人金京购买了1000股股票，被“吸走”上千万资产。其受害过程是：汇丰银行一位姓汤的理财顾问只用了10分钟给金先生打了一个电话，连产品本身是什么都没向金先生介绍。
银行这位姓汤的理财顾问让金先生买1000股试试，并且按照金先生的说法，购买50万股中国铝业，也未经金先生同意，银行这位理财顾问就盲目代理金先生购买，最后导致金京上千万资产损失。
2008年，汇丰银行遭到受害者方先生起诉，要求索赔600万，与汇丰银行打官司。方先生在汇丰银行购买的“双利存款”产品，让方先生损失了35万元。据受害者讲诉：汇丰银行北京燕莎支行一位姓张的理财主任找到方先生，不但没有详细介绍产品，甚至连签的合同都没有留给方先生。在签订合同时还故意借口文件没有事先装订好，把文件散落一桌，只是不时抽出一张让方先生例行公事的签字。受害后，方先生才质疑：当初办的是“双利存款”业务，并签订有“双利存款确认函”，到后来怎么又变成了“双利理财”这么一项集定期存款与期权投资的理财产品了?
2008年，汇丰银行还遭到一为姓马的女士起诉。这位马女士与方先生几乎同样的遭遇。她在汇丰银行燕莎支行购买的是“双利存款”产品，当时也认为是存款业务，结果却成了期权产品，并且当时理财顾问也没有给马女士提供产品说明书，签字合同也由银行保存。在马女士起诉汇丰银行后，在法庭上，汇丰银行才拿出产品的内部说明书。据相关知情者透露，马女士与汇丰银行打官司的过程中，汇丰银行找人与马女士和解，最终马女士才不再上诉。
受害者还有赖建平、郝婷、金亮、碧桂园女老板、荣智健、中国东航等。
很多KODA产品苦主，大多都是通过人际关系与香港的银行建立联系，或是银行理财人员主动上门，或是苦主经过几层朋友关系与香港银行取得联系。他们的共同点是：户籍大多为本港、中国内地；账户上有较大数目存款。香港私人银行获得账户信息主要有以下途径：从内地的分行营业部获取或直接在香港开户的账户中查找。
几乎所有苦主都是带着这种对外资银行近乎仰慕的信任，购买了这些当时自己根本摸不清门道的理财产品。
被绞杀几时休？
继高盛被指控诈骗投资者后，大型投资行摩根士丹利也卷入调查，美国联邦调查员怀疑大摩是高盛案翻版，销售其设计的按揭衍生产品时误导投资者，并与投资者对赌，现正调查事件。有分析认为，这是奥巴马在对金融危机的始作俑者“秋后算账”。但是，在美国投资者权益获得保护的同时，国内的金融衍生品受害者却尚无法保护自己的权益。
中国政法大学民商法学院管晓峰教授认为：“当我国的法律资源无法解决那些似有欺诈嫌疑的金融产品交易引发的争议时，监管部门应该暂停这样的产品销售。这些产品设计非常不公平，双方面对的风险几率严重不对等，银行承担的风险是有限的，但是投资者承担的风险是无限的，更为不公平的是即使买方发现产品面临巨大的风险时，也无权要求银行停止交易。对这种明显不公平的金融产品，应当等具有较完备的法律资源解决争议时才能销售，目前我国还的确不具备销售这些高风险金融产品的法律条件。”
更何况，这样无限的风险并未完全告知投资者。
“如果他给我提示风险了，我肯定不买，因为我的家庭跟其他的家庭真的不一样，我的儿子12岁，他需要长期的24小时的监护，他没有学习能力，以后更没有工作能力，需要以后的生活保证。我丈夫买一条领带花236块钱，他都退掉。我们攒一点钱很不容易的，过去经常工作到夜里两点。如果给我提示风险了，打死我，我也不会买！”齐鹏的太太成女士哭诉。
苦主黄女士也称：“交易的第一天他没跟我说这是多高的风险，他一句没说。”
昨日，记者致电汇丰银行，截至记者发稿，对方并未给与记者明确答复。
7 Little-Known Reasons You're Not Getting Hired
.7 Little-Known Reasons You're Not Getting Hired
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-LittleKnown-Reasons-Youre-usnews-863973864.html?x=0
Wednesday May 12, 2010, 11:08 am EDT
If you're job hunting you're surely aware of the most egregious and common no-nos: showing up for the interview ten minutes late; answering your phone during the interview; handing over a resume riddled with typos; using a silly-sounding E-mail address; failing to demonstrate you've researched the employer; bad-mouthing your last boss; neglecting to follow up. You're not doing any of that, are you? Of course not.
But you may not have considered some of the less-discussed, under-the-radar issues. Give this list a look and ask yourself, "Do any of these sound like me?"
1. You have unreasonable expectations. Everybody wants the perfect job. But if your criteria are too high, if you're being too demanding, you may well remain unemployed. Nobody wants to be told to compromise, but the fact is that much of life involves just that, at least temporarily. Analyze your wants and needs. Which are must haves? Which are negotiable? Which can be put on hold?
2. You're relying too much on one search technique. Maybe you are only applying online, or only networking, or only using employment agencies, or only approaching companies that you know are hiring. Don't limit yourself to just one job-search method. Try them all. Cast a wide net, continue to build your connections, get creative.
[See 10 new rules for today's job hunt.]
3. You use the word "I" too often in your cover letter. The most effective way to endear yourself to potential employers is to put the focus more on them than on you. Show you've done your homework and understand what your target companies are seeking. Then tell them how you can fill those needs.
4. You are not demonstrating long-term potential. We get caught up in the moment. We need a job now. But employers, the good ones at least, tend to think long term. They want to know not only how you will contribute today but in the future, too. That "Where do you see yourself in five years?" question is not just for drill. They really want to know.
5. You are unknowingly repeating mistakes. After interviews, are you taking the time to review and analyze them? Many times the reason you don't get a job is beyond your control, and, in fact, has nothing to do with you, but not always. Trying to understand why the answer was "No" may help you to fine tune your approach.
[See the topics you can't discuss at work.]
6. You have not rehearsed. You may hesitate to rehearse answers to the most common questions. You don't want to sound canned. You want to be yourself. But consider the benefits of creating great answers to those questions you hear the most--short, vivid, three-sentence answers brimming with examples and facts--and practicing them until you can speak with conviction and confidence.
7. You put your job search on hold while waiting to hear back. Don't we all fall into this trap at one time or another? You've had a super couple of interviews with your dream employer. You just know you're going to get "the call" any day now. You think, I'm going to hold off until I hear back; after all, I deserve a little break. Well, no doubt you do deserve a little break--but don't. Keep on networking, applying, interviewing, and researching until you have a firm job offer in hand.
Looking for work is an enormous project. In many ways it's more difficult, and takes more energy, than even the most demanding job. So, in the midst of it all, find a way to nurture yourself. Keep on fine tuning and strengthening your approach. And hang in there.
Karen Burns is the author of the illustrated career advice book The Amazing Adventures of Working Girl: Real-Life Career Advice You Can Actually Use, recently released by Running Press. She blogs at www.karenburnsworkinggirl.com.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-LittleKnown-Reasons-Youre-usnews-863973864.html?x=0
Wednesday May 12, 2010, 11:08 am EDT
If you're job hunting you're surely aware of the most egregious and common no-nos: showing up for the interview ten minutes late; answering your phone during the interview; handing over a resume riddled with typos; using a silly-sounding E-mail address; failing to demonstrate you've researched the employer; bad-mouthing your last boss; neglecting to follow up. You're not doing any of that, are you? Of course not.
But you may not have considered some of the less-discussed, under-the-radar issues. Give this list a look and ask yourself, "Do any of these sound like me?"
1. You have unreasonable expectations. Everybody wants the perfect job. But if your criteria are too high, if you're being too demanding, you may well remain unemployed. Nobody wants to be told to compromise, but the fact is that much of life involves just that, at least temporarily. Analyze your wants and needs. Which are must haves? Which are negotiable? Which can be put on hold?
2. You're relying too much on one search technique. Maybe you are only applying online, or only networking, or only using employment agencies, or only approaching companies that you know are hiring. Don't limit yourself to just one job-search method. Try them all. Cast a wide net, continue to build your connections, get creative.
[See 10 new rules for today's job hunt.]
3. You use the word "I" too often in your cover letter. The most effective way to endear yourself to potential employers is to put the focus more on them than on you. Show you've done your homework and understand what your target companies are seeking. Then tell them how you can fill those needs.
4. You are not demonstrating long-term potential. We get caught up in the moment. We need a job now. But employers, the good ones at least, tend to think long term. They want to know not only how you will contribute today but in the future, too. That "Where do you see yourself in five years?" question is not just for drill. They really want to know.
5. You are unknowingly repeating mistakes. After interviews, are you taking the time to review and analyze them? Many times the reason you don't get a job is beyond your control, and, in fact, has nothing to do with you, but not always. Trying to understand why the answer was "No" may help you to fine tune your approach.
[See the topics you can't discuss at work.]
6. You have not rehearsed. You may hesitate to rehearse answers to the most common questions. You don't want to sound canned. You want to be yourself. But consider the benefits of creating great answers to those questions you hear the most--short, vivid, three-sentence answers brimming with examples and facts--and practicing them until you can speak with conviction and confidence.
7. You put your job search on hold while waiting to hear back. Don't we all fall into this trap at one time or another? You've had a super couple of interviews with your dream employer. You just know you're going to get "the call" any day now. You think, I'm going to hold off until I hear back; after all, I deserve a little break. Well, no doubt you do deserve a little break--but don't. Keep on networking, applying, interviewing, and researching until you have a firm job offer in hand.
Looking for work is an enormous project. In many ways it's more difficult, and takes more energy, than even the most demanding job. So, in the midst of it all, find a way to nurture yourself. Keep on fine tuning and strengthening your approach. And hang in there.
Karen Burns is the author of the illustrated career advice book The Amazing Adventures of Working Girl: Real-Life Career Advice You Can Actually Use, recently released by Running Press. She blogs at www.karenburnsworkinggirl.com.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Teenage Entrepreneurs
Teenage Entrepreneurs
by Geoffrey A. Flower
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/109472/teenage-entrepreneurs?mod=career-work
Photo by Deanne Fitzmaurice
Cupertino High School senior Diane Keng pitches MyWeboo.com, her third start-up, at the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco.
Here is one indicator of the allure of Silicon Valley's entrepreneurial culture: Diane Keng just launched her third start-up -- and she is still in high school.
In March, the 18-year-old launched Internet company MyWeboo.com to help teens manage their digital lives and social-network identities in one place. She is now pitching the company to venture capitalists, and earlier this week presented at the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco.
Yet each morning, Ms. Keng also heads to Cupertino's Monta Vista High School for a schedule of classes that includes Advanced Placement economics and government. In the afternoons, the high-school senior squeezes in varsity badminton practice.
"My age, my gender and my lack of experience don't deter me from going after what I want for the company," says Ms. Keng, who runs marketing for MyWeboo.com from home and co-founded the venture with her 25-year-old brother, Steven.
Ms. Keng has several advantages in pursuing her entrepreneurial ambitions, including her father, a venture capitalist who splits his time between Beijing and Cupertino and gave her $100,000 in seed money.
Another big advantage is that Ms. Keng is here in Silicon Valley and can tap the region's unique ecosystem of tech resources and experience -- not to mention supportive parents and teachers. Her high school alone is home to about 10 entrepreneurs, including a student who buys and flips websites that he thinks have potential.
The Valley is filled with teen-entrepreneur legends: Gurbaksh Chahal started online ad company Click Agents in San Jose when he was 16, and sold it for $40 million two years later. He then founded ad network BlueLithium, which he sold for $300 million when he was 25.
Kristopher Tate, who five years ago finished high school early and drove his parents' car from San Diego to Cupertino at the age of 16 to launch photo-sharing site Zooomr, says Silicon Valley is a great place for budding entrepreneurs. "Everybody is there, and when you want to step up or feel like your idea is worth a grain of salt, there are people who will take it seriously." Today, Mr. Tate is 22 and runs a portfolio of Internet companies from Tokyo, but isn't involved in Zooomr's day-to-day operation.
Despite the encouraging business environment, teen entrepreneurs have their own set of work-life balance issues.
"For the first two years that it took me from starting Click Agents to selling it, I basically sacrificed my youth," says Mr. Chahal, who dropped out of high school to focus on his start-ups. "I slept and worked in the office."
In addition, many start-ups don't succeed, which can bring some particularly harsh lessons for young entrepreneurs. They are, as a set, more inclined to overvalue their own ideas, according to YouNoodle Inc., which tracks start-ups. In a recent survey, YouNoodle found that founders under the age of 25 expected their companies would be worth about 27% more after three years than other founders (who are, on average, 35 years old).
Ms. Keng co-founded the venture with her 25-year-old brother, Steven.
Other young entrepreneurs end up putting school first. Virtual goods marketplace PlaySpan Inc. was founded in 2006 in the garage of San Jose sixth-grader Arjun Mehta, who wanted a better way to sell items he had won in online games. He created a mock-up of his ideal website, then passed the baton to his dad, who now runs the company while Arjun attends eighth grade.
"In my free time, I test out the commerce side of the site," says Arjun. He says he doesn't demand a salary, but has kept the title of co-founder.
Ms. Keng launched her first venture at age 15, when she started a T-shirt screen-printing business and later began a teen marketing-consulting firm. She says she ended up dropping the T-shirt company because it wasn't making enough money, and the second business because she felt she was spreading herself too thin amid activities, and needed to devote time to prepare for the ACT.
With MyWeboo.com, it helps that Ms. Keng's school encourages entrepreneurial activity and makes allowances for an enterprise's demands. Fiercely competitive Monta Vista offers business classes that include marketing and finance, and brings groups like the Silicon Valley Private Equity Roundtable to workshops on how to write a business plan. Teachers allow Ms. Keng to miss class and make up tests as needed.
"If they're going to fail, they might as well fail when they are young," says Carl Schmidt, Ms. Keng's business teacher at Monta Vista. He teaches students that 90% to 95% of all new products fail, so they must focus on doing their research and solving a real consumer need.
Still, balancing so much requires focus. Ms. Keng, who says she gets As and Bs and will attend Santa Clara University beginning in the fall with a full scholarship, turns off her cellphone and email while at school or doing homework. "If it's a business call, that's what voicemail is for. I will call you back," she says.
And her father, Brian Keng, says he insists academics remain his daughter's top priority. Ms. Keng's parents also ask that she communicate with them about all her business activities.
"She is just in high school," says Mr. Keng, "and sometimes it is very difficult for her to make a judgment."
Even with those boundaries, developing a business is a far cry from traditional high-school diversions like glee club or yearbook. Those activities are still around, but "there needs to be a place for those kids who are entrepreneurs and are a little bit eccentric and are willing to push the envelope," says Mr. Schmidt.
Write to Geoffrey A. Fowler at geoffrey.fowler@wsj.com
by Geoffrey A. Flower
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/109472/teenage-entrepreneurs?mod=career-work
Photo by Deanne Fitzmaurice
Cupertino High School senior Diane Keng pitches MyWeboo.com, her third start-up, at the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco.
Here is one indicator of the allure of Silicon Valley's entrepreneurial culture: Diane Keng just launched her third start-up -- and she is still in high school.
In March, the 18-year-old launched Internet company MyWeboo.com to help teens manage their digital lives and social-network identities in one place. She is now pitching the company to venture capitalists, and earlier this week presented at the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco.
Yet each morning, Ms. Keng also heads to Cupertino's Monta Vista High School for a schedule of classes that includes Advanced Placement economics and government. In the afternoons, the high-school senior squeezes in varsity badminton practice.
"My age, my gender and my lack of experience don't deter me from going after what I want for the company," says Ms. Keng, who runs marketing for MyWeboo.com from home and co-founded the venture with her 25-year-old brother, Steven.
Ms. Keng has several advantages in pursuing her entrepreneurial ambitions, including her father, a venture capitalist who splits his time between Beijing and Cupertino and gave her $100,000 in seed money.
Another big advantage is that Ms. Keng is here in Silicon Valley and can tap the region's unique ecosystem of tech resources and experience -- not to mention supportive parents and teachers. Her high school alone is home to about 10 entrepreneurs, including a student who buys and flips websites that he thinks have potential.
The Valley is filled with teen-entrepreneur legends: Gurbaksh Chahal started online ad company Click Agents in San Jose when he was 16, and sold it for $40 million two years later. He then founded ad network BlueLithium, which he sold for $300 million when he was 25.
Kristopher Tate, who five years ago finished high school early and drove his parents' car from San Diego to Cupertino at the age of 16 to launch photo-sharing site Zooomr, says Silicon Valley is a great place for budding entrepreneurs. "Everybody is there, and when you want to step up or feel like your idea is worth a grain of salt, there are people who will take it seriously." Today, Mr. Tate is 22 and runs a portfolio of Internet companies from Tokyo, but isn't involved in Zooomr's day-to-day operation.
Despite the encouraging business environment, teen entrepreneurs have their own set of work-life balance issues.
"For the first two years that it took me from starting Click Agents to selling it, I basically sacrificed my youth," says Mr. Chahal, who dropped out of high school to focus on his start-ups. "I slept and worked in the office."
In addition, many start-ups don't succeed, which can bring some particularly harsh lessons for young entrepreneurs. They are, as a set, more inclined to overvalue their own ideas, according to YouNoodle Inc., which tracks start-ups. In a recent survey, YouNoodle found that founders under the age of 25 expected their companies would be worth about 27% more after three years than other founders (who are, on average, 35 years old).
Ms. Keng co-founded the venture with her 25-year-old brother, Steven.
Other young entrepreneurs end up putting school first. Virtual goods marketplace PlaySpan Inc. was founded in 2006 in the garage of San Jose sixth-grader Arjun Mehta, who wanted a better way to sell items he had won in online games. He created a mock-up of his ideal website, then passed the baton to his dad, who now runs the company while Arjun attends eighth grade.
"In my free time, I test out the commerce side of the site," says Arjun. He says he doesn't demand a salary, but has kept the title of co-founder.
Ms. Keng launched her first venture at age 15, when she started a T-shirt screen-printing business and later began a teen marketing-consulting firm. She says she ended up dropping the T-shirt company because it wasn't making enough money, and the second business because she felt she was spreading herself too thin amid activities, and needed to devote time to prepare for the ACT.
With MyWeboo.com, it helps that Ms. Keng's school encourages entrepreneurial activity and makes allowances for an enterprise's demands. Fiercely competitive Monta Vista offers business classes that include marketing and finance, and brings groups like the Silicon Valley Private Equity Roundtable to workshops on how to write a business plan. Teachers allow Ms. Keng to miss class and make up tests as needed.
"If they're going to fail, they might as well fail when they are young," says Carl Schmidt, Ms. Keng's business teacher at Monta Vista. He teaches students that 90% to 95% of all new products fail, so they must focus on doing their research and solving a real consumer need.
Still, balancing so much requires focus. Ms. Keng, who says she gets As and Bs and will attend Santa Clara University beginning in the fall with a full scholarship, turns off her cellphone and email while at school or doing homework. "If it's a business call, that's what voicemail is for. I will call you back," she says.
And her father, Brian Keng, says he insists academics remain his daughter's top priority. Ms. Keng's parents also ask that she communicate with them about all her business activities.
"She is just in high school," says Mr. Keng, "and sometimes it is very difficult for her to make a judgment."
Even with those boundaries, developing a business is a far cry from traditional high-school diversions like glee club or yearbook. Those activities are still around, but "there needs to be a place for those kids who are entrepreneurs and are a little bit eccentric and are willing to push the envelope," says Mr. Schmidt.
Write to Geoffrey A. Fowler at geoffrey.fowler@wsj.com
Warren Buffett's son preaches values as wealth
Warren Buffett's son preaches values as wealth
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100510/lf_nm_life/us_books_buffett
By Christine Kearney Christine Kearney – Mon May 10, 8:36 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The son of billionaire investor Warren Buffett has an old-world spiritual message for today's money-rich parents: teach your children values and do not give them everything they want.
Musician and now author Peter Buffett preaches the message in his new book "Life is What You Make it: Finding Your Own Path to Fulfillment". Recently released in the United States, it describes how he wound up a "normal, happy" person instead of a spoiled child to one of the world's richest people.
Buffett, 52, teaches the rewards of self-respect and pursuing one's own passions and accomplishments rather than buying into society's concepts of material wealth.
"I am my own person and I know what I have accomplished in my life," he said. "This isn't about wealth or fame or money or any of that stuff, it is actually about values and what you enjoy and finding something you love doing."
People who are born with a silver spoon in their mouth can fall victim to what Buffett said his father has called a "silver dagger in your back," which leads to a sense of entitlement and a lack of personal achievement.
"Entitlement is the worst thing ever and I see entitlement coming in many guises," he said. "Anybody who acts like they deserve something 'just because,', is a disaster."
But Buffett wasn't always this wise. His own family gave him $90,000 in stock when he was 19, a small sum from such immense financial wealth. After studying at Stanford University, he moved to San Francisco and lived in a studio apartment with just enough room for his musical instruments.
"I was really searching," he said, adding that he began his musical career by working for free writing music for a local television station.
"I was kind of lost, but trying to find myself. It was definitely this strange period where I didn't really know where I was going," he said.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE
As well his musical passions, the values taught to him growing up and a sense of a bigger picture in life stayed with him during those trying times, he said.
"I was not only not handed everything as a kid, I was shown that there are lots of other people out there with very different circumstances," he said.
Although many people he encounters assume that his father wanted him to go into finance, he said his father accepted his choice to become a musician beginning with commercials then his own albums and composing for television shows and films.
"It was encouraged for a moment when I was open to the idea," he said about pursuing finance. But he added that as he grew older, it became clear the financial world "was not speaking to my heart."
Along with the book, Buffett has embarked on a "Concert & Conversation" tour in which he plays the piano, talks about his life and warns against consumerist culture and damaging the environment.
He said he eventually inherited more money after his mother died in 2004, but by then he had learned his lessons. Now he works on giving back to the world -- another of his life philosophies -- which includes through working for his father's NoVo charitable foundation.
"Economic prosperity may come and go; that's just how it is," he writes in the book. "But values are the steady currency that earn us the all-important rewards."
(editing by Bob Tourtellotte)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100510/lf_nm_life/us_books_buffett
By Christine Kearney Christine Kearney – Mon May 10, 8:36 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The son of billionaire investor Warren Buffett has an old-world spiritual message for today's money-rich parents: teach your children values and do not give them everything they want.
Musician and now author Peter Buffett preaches the message in his new book "Life is What You Make it: Finding Your Own Path to Fulfillment". Recently released in the United States, it describes how he wound up a "normal, happy" person instead of a spoiled child to one of the world's richest people.
Buffett, 52, teaches the rewards of self-respect and pursuing one's own passions and accomplishments rather than buying into society's concepts of material wealth.
"I am my own person and I know what I have accomplished in my life," he said. "This isn't about wealth or fame or money or any of that stuff, it is actually about values and what you enjoy and finding something you love doing."
People who are born with a silver spoon in their mouth can fall victim to what Buffett said his father has called a "silver dagger in your back," which leads to a sense of entitlement and a lack of personal achievement.
"Entitlement is the worst thing ever and I see entitlement coming in many guises," he said. "Anybody who acts like they deserve something 'just because,', is a disaster."
But Buffett wasn't always this wise. His own family gave him $90,000 in stock when he was 19, a small sum from such immense financial wealth. After studying at Stanford University, he moved to San Francisco and lived in a studio apartment with just enough room for his musical instruments.
"I was really searching," he said, adding that he began his musical career by working for free writing music for a local television station.
"I was kind of lost, but trying to find myself. It was definitely this strange period where I didn't really know where I was going," he said.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE
As well his musical passions, the values taught to him growing up and a sense of a bigger picture in life stayed with him during those trying times, he said.
"I was not only not handed everything as a kid, I was shown that there are lots of other people out there with very different circumstances," he said.
Although many people he encounters assume that his father wanted him to go into finance, he said his father accepted his choice to become a musician beginning with commercials then his own albums and composing for television shows and films.
"It was encouraged for a moment when I was open to the idea," he said about pursuing finance. But he added that as he grew older, it became clear the financial world "was not speaking to my heart."
Along with the book, Buffett has embarked on a "Concert & Conversation" tour in which he plays the piano, talks about his life and warns against consumerist culture and damaging the environment.
He said he eventually inherited more money after his mother died in 2004, but by then he had learned his lessons. Now he works on giving back to the world -- another of his life philosophies -- which includes through working for his father's NoVo charitable foundation.
"Economic prosperity may come and go; that's just how it is," he writes in the book. "But values are the steady currency that earn us the all-important rewards."
(editing by Bob Tourtellotte)
Monday, May 10, 2010
Worst-Paying College Degrees
Worst-Paying College Degrees
We all know money doesn't buy happiness--and that's good news for these new grads.
by Charles Purdy, Yahoo! HotJobs senior editor
http://hotjobs.yahoo.com/career-articles-worst_paying_college_degrees-1263
There's no denying the value of a college education: According to recent U.S. Census surveys, the median salary for college grads is more than $20,000 higher than that of people with only a high school diploma. And the unemployment rate for people with bachelor's degrees is almost half the rate for people without.
=========================================
Also on Yahoo! HotJobs:
10 job-search mistakes of new grads
8 mistakes to avoid in your first "real" job
Find a new job near you
Get personalized Twitter job alerts from Yahoo! HotJobs
=========================================
But some degrees are worth more than others, as PayScale.com shows in its 2010 report on the earning power of bachelor's degrees.
No surprise, engineering degrees continue to be top earners--and (also no big shocker) you have to go pretty far down the list before you see the liberal arts well represented.
But there's more to choosing a major than comparing dollar amounts. We salute and congratulate the graduates whose interests (and hard work) have led them to the following degrees--the lowest-earning degrees on PayScale's list.
10. Drama (starting annual salary: $35,600; mid-career annual salary: $56,600)
Some mega-millionaire movie stars with drama degrees (Denzel Washington and Meryl Streep, for instance) may be skewing these numbers upward--for every Denzel and Meryl, there are thousands of thespians struggling to make ends meet. But you don't study drama because you want to get rich--you study drama because you love the theater. (And an ability to act comes in handy in many professions.)
9. Fine arts (starting annual salary: $35,800; mid-career annual salary: $56,300)
Well, it takes an artist to make a thrift-store wardrobe look like a million bucks.
8. Hospitality and tourism (starting annual salary: $37,000; mid-career annual salary: $54,300)
Jobs that include tips may be skewing these numbers downward--and this is an industry that looks to be on the rebound as the economy improves. Plus, the perks associated with jobs in hospitality and tourism may compensate for the comparatively low salaries--many jobs in the industry allow extensive travel (or provide considerable travel discounts).
7. Education (starting annual salary: $36,200; mid-career annual salary: $54,100)
For the right people, teaching is an immensely rewarding career--and it's truly a noble one. The good news is, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the employment opportunities for primary, secondary, and special education teachers are expected to grow by 14 percent in the coming decade. And there will be plenty of new opportunities in continuing education for adults, as professional skill requirements change ever more rapidly.
6. Horticulture (starting annual salary: $37,200; mid-career annual salary: $53,400)
It seems that a green thumb doesn't necessarily bring in the greenbacks. But when you work among flowers and plants in a nursery or garden, who needs 'em?
5. Spanish (starting annual salary: $35,600; mid-career annual salary: $52,600)
As an old proverb puts it, when you learn a new language, you "gain a new soul." Who could put a price on that? And certainly, knowing Spanish--the language with the second-highest number of native speakers (after Mandarin)--in addition to English opens up a world of job opportunities beyond Spanish teacher or translator (as a plus, you can better enjoy a world of fantastic Spanish-language music, movies, and literature).
4. Music (starting annual salary: $34,000; mid-career annual salary: $52,000)
Hey, if being a musician were easy, everyone would do it. Some of us are guitar heroes; most of us just play the video game.
3. Theology (starting annual salary: $34,800; mid-career annual salary: $51,500)
This is the perfect example of a degree earned by someone who's "not in it for the money": people who choose to study theology often feel they're pursuing a higher calling (and often feel a strong desire to do good in the world, no matter the cost).
2. Elementary education (starting annual salary: $33,000; mid-career annual salary: $42,400)
Specializing in elementary education means a lower median salary than an education degree (number 7).
1. Social work (starting annual salary: $33,400; mid-career annual salary: $41,600)
They say that crime doesn't pay. As this list seems to point out, neither does helping people. So it's a good thing that many college students seem to believe that helping others is its own reward--social workers are an indispensable safety net for people who've fallen on difficult times. And the BLS reports that the outlook for opportunities in this field are favorable--particularly for social workers who work in rural areas or with senior citizens.
(Source: PayScale salary survey. Methodology: Annual pay is for bachelor's graduates without higher degrees. Typical starting salaries are for graduates with two years of experience; mid-career salaries are for graduates with 15 years of experience. PayScale also provides salary information by college; for more information, check out PayScale's Best Colleges Report.)
We all know money doesn't buy happiness--and that's good news for these new grads.
by Charles Purdy, Yahoo! HotJobs senior editor
http://hotjobs.yahoo.com/career-articles-worst_paying_college_degrees-1263
There's no denying the value of a college education: According to recent U.S. Census surveys, the median salary for college grads is more than $20,000 higher than that of people with only a high school diploma. And the unemployment rate for people with bachelor's degrees is almost half the rate for people without.
=========================================
Also on Yahoo! HotJobs:
10 job-search mistakes of new grads
8 mistakes to avoid in your first "real" job
Find a new job near you
Get personalized Twitter job alerts from Yahoo! HotJobs
=========================================
But some degrees are worth more than others, as PayScale.com shows in its 2010 report on the earning power of bachelor's degrees.
No surprise, engineering degrees continue to be top earners--and (also no big shocker) you have to go pretty far down the list before you see the liberal arts well represented.
But there's more to choosing a major than comparing dollar amounts. We salute and congratulate the graduates whose interests (and hard work) have led them to the following degrees--the lowest-earning degrees on PayScale's list.
10. Drama (starting annual salary: $35,600; mid-career annual salary: $56,600)
Some mega-millionaire movie stars with drama degrees (Denzel Washington and Meryl Streep, for instance) may be skewing these numbers upward--for every Denzel and Meryl, there are thousands of thespians struggling to make ends meet. But you don't study drama because you want to get rich--you study drama because you love the theater. (And an ability to act comes in handy in many professions.)
9. Fine arts (starting annual salary: $35,800; mid-career annual salary: $56,300)
Well, it takes an artist to make a thrift-store wardrobe look like a million bucks.
8. Hospitality and tourism (starting annual salary: $37,000; mid-career annual salary: $54,300)
Jobs that include tips may be skewing these numbers downward--and this is an industry that looks to be on the rebound as the economy improves. Plus, the perks associated with jobs in hospitality and tourism may compensate for the comparatively low salaries--many jobs in the industry allow extensive travel (or provide considerable travel discounts).
7. Education (starting annual salary: $36,200; mid-career annual salary: $54,100)
For the right people, teaching is an immensely rewarding career--and it's truly a noble one. The good news is, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the employment opportunities for primary, secondary, and special education teachers are expected to grow by 14 percent in the coming decade. And there will be plenty of new opportunities in continuing education for adults, as professional skill requirements change ever more rapidly.
6. Horticulture (starting annual salary: $37,200; mid-career annual salary: $53,400)
It seems that a green thumb doesn't necessarily bring in the greenbacks. But when you work among flowers and plants in a nursery or garden, who needs 'em?
5. Spanish (starting annual salary: $35,600; mid-career annual salary: $52,600)
As an old proverb puts it, when you learn a new language, you "gain a new soul." Who could put a price on that? And certainly, knowing Spanish--the language with the second-highest number of native speakers (after Mandarin)--in addition to English opens up a world of job opportunities beyond Spanish teacher or translator (as a plus, you can better enjoy a world of fantastic Spanish-language music, movies, and literature).
4. Music (starting annual salary: $34,000; mid-career annual salary: $52,000)
Hey, if being a musician were easy, everyone would do it. Some of us are guitar heroes; most of us just play the video game.
3. Theology (starting annual salary: $34,800; mid-career annual salary: $51,500)
This is the perfect example of a degree earned by someone who's "not in it for the money": people who choose to study theology often feel they're pursuing a higher calling (and often feel a strong desire to do good in the world, no matter the cost).
2. Elementary education (starting annual salary: $33,000; mid-career annual salary: $42,400)
Specializing in elementary education means a lower median salary than an education degree (number 7).
1. Social work (starting annual salary: $33,400; mid-career annual salary: $41,600)
They say that crime doesn't pay. As this list seems to point out, neither does helping people. So it's a good thing that many college students seem to believe that helping others is its own reward--social workers are an indispensable safety net for people who've fallen on difficult times. And the BLS reports that the outlook for opportunities in this field are favorable--particularly for social workers who work in rural areas or with senior citizens.
(Source: PayScale salary survey. Methodology: Annual pay is for bachelor's graduates without higher degrees. Typical starting salaries are for graduates with two years of experience; mid-career salaries are for graduates with 15 years of experience. PayScale also provides salary information by college; for more information, check out PayScale's Best Colleges Report.)
Saturday, May 8, 2010
FAQ: Date Rape Drugs -- www.womenshealth.gov
http://www.womenshealth.gov/faq/date-rape-drugs.cfm
How can I protect myself from being a victim?
* Don't accept drinks from other people.
* Open containers yourself.
* Keep your drink with you at all times, even when you go to the bathroom.
* Don't share drinks.
* Don't drink from punch bowls or other common, open containers. They may already have drugs in them.
* If someone offers to get you a drink from a bar or at a party, go with the person to order your drink. Watch the drink being poured and carry it yourself.
* Don't drink anything that tastes or smells strange. Sometimes, GHB tastes salty.
* Have a nondrinking friend with you to make sure nothing happens.
* If you realize you left your drink unattended, pour it out.
* If you feel drunk and haven't drunk any alcohol — or, if you feel like the effects of drinking alcohol are stronger than usual — get help right away.
Are there ways to tell if I might have been drugged and raped?
It is often hard to tell. Most victims don't remember being drugged or assaulted. The victim might not be aware of the attack until 8 or 12 hours after it occurred. These drugs also leave the body very quickly. Once a victim gets help, there might be no proof that drugs were involved in the attack. But there are some signs that you might have been drugged:
* You feel drunk and haven't drunk any alcohol — or, you feel like the effects of drinking alcohol are stronger than usual.
* You wake up feeling very hung over and disoriented or having no memory of a period of time.
* You remember having a drink, but cannot recall anything after that.
* You find that your clothes are torn or not on right.
* You feel like you had sex, but you cannot remember it.
[Return to Top]
What should I do if I think I’ve been drugged and raped?
* Get medical care right away. Call 911 or have a trusted friend take you to a hospital emergency room. Don't urinate, douche, bathe, brush your teeth, wash your hands, change clothes, or eat or drink before you go. These things may give evidence of the rape. The hospital will use a "rape kit" to collect evidence.
* Call the police from the hospital. Tell the police exactly what you remember. Be honest about all your activities. Remember, nothing you did — including drinking alcohol or doing drugs — can justify rape.
* Ask the hospital to take a urine (pee) sample that can be used to test for date rape drugs. The drugs leave your system quickly. Rohypnol stays in the body for several hours, and can be detected in the urine up to 72 hours after taking it. GHB leaves the body in 12 hours. Don't urinate before going to the hospital.
* Don't pick up or clean up where you think the assault might have occurred. There could be evidence left behind — such as on a drinking glass or bed sheets.
* Get counseling and treatment. Feelings of shame, guilt, fear, and shock are normal. A counselor can help you work through these emotions and begin the healing process. Calling a crisis center or a hotline is a good place to start. One national hotline is the National Sexual Assault Hotline at 1-800-656-HOPE .
For more information
For more information on date rape drugs, please call womenshealth.gov at 1-800-994-9662 or contact the following organizations:
Drug Enforcement Administration, DOJ
Phone: (202) 307-1000
Internet Address: http://www.usdoj.gov/dea
Food and Drug Administration, OPHS, HHS
Phone: (800) 332-4010 Hotline or (888) 463-6332 (Consumer Information)
Internet Address: http://www.fda.gov
National Institute on Drug Abuse, NIH, HHS
Phone: (800) 662-4357 Hotline or (800) 662-9832 Spanish Language Hotline
Internet Address: http://www.drugabuse.gov
Office of National Drug Control Policy
Phone: (800) 666-3332 (Information Clearinghouse)
Internet Address: http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/index.html
Men Can Stop Rape
Phone: (202) 265-6530
Internet Address: http://www.mencanstoprape.org
National Center for Victims of Crime
Phone: (800) 394-2255
Internet Address: http://www.ncvc.org
Rape, Abuse, and Incest National Network
Phone: (800) 656-4673 (656-HOPE)
Internet Address: http://www.rainn.org
Reviewed by:
Susan Weiss
Chief, Science Policy Branch
National Institute on Drug Abuse
All material contained in this FAQ is free of copyright restrictions, and may be copied, reproduced, or duplicated without permission of the Office on Women's Health in the Department of Health and Human Services. Citation of the source is appreciated.
* What are date rape drugs?
* What do the drugs look like?
* What effects do these drugs have on the body?
* Are these drugs legal in the United States?
* Is alcohol a date rape drug? What about other drugs?
* How can I protect myself from being a victim?
* Are there ways to tell if I might have been drugged and raped?
* What should I do if I think I've been drugged and raped?
* For more information
See also . . .
* Sexual assault
[Return to Top]
What are date rape drugs?
These are drugs that are sometimes used to assist a sexual assault. Sexual assault is any type of sexual activity that a person does not agree to. It can include touching that is not okay; putting something into the vagina; sexual intercourse; rape; and attempted rape. These drugs are powerful and dangerous. They can be slipped into your drink when you are not looking. The drugs often have no color, smell, or taste, so you can't tell if you are being drugged. The drugs can make you become weak and confused — or even pass out — so that you are unable to refuse sex or defend yourself. If you are drugged, you might not remember what happened while you were drugged. Date rape drugs are used on both females and males.
The three most common date rape drugs are:
* Rohypnol (roh-HIP-nol). Rohypnol is the trade name for flunitrazepam (FLOO-neye-TRAZ-uh-pam). Abuse of two similar drugs appears to have replaced Rohypnol abuse in some parts of the United States. These are: clonazepam (marketed as Klonopin in the U.S.and Rivotril in Mexico) and alprazolam (marketed as Xanax). Rohypnol is also known as:
o Circles
o Forget Pill
o LA Rochas
o Lunch Money
o Mexican Valium
o Mind Erasers
o Poor Man's Quaalude
o R-2
o Rib
o Roach
o Roach-2
o Roches
o Roofies
o Roopies
o Rope
o Rophies
o Ruffies
o Trip-and-Fall
o Whiteys
* GHB, which is short for gamma hydroxybutyric (GAM-muh heye-DROX-ee-BYOO-tur-ihk) acid. GHB is also known as:
o Bedtime Scoop
o Cherry Meth
o Easy Lay
o Energy Drink
o G
o Gamma 10
o Georgia Home Boy
o G-Juice
o Gook
o Goop
o Great Hormones
o Grievous Bodily Harm (GBH)
o Liquid E
o Liquid Ecstasy
o Liquid X
o PM
o Salt Water
o Soap
o Somatomax
o Vita-G
* Ketamine (KEET-uh-meen), also known as:
o Black Hole
o Bump
o Cat Valium
o Green
o Jet
o K
o K-Hole
o Kit Kat
o Psychedelic Heroin
o Purple
o Special K
o Super Acid
These drugs also are known as "club drugs" because they tend to be used at dance clubs, concerts, and "raves."
The term "date rape" is widely used. But most experts prefer the term "drug-facilitated sexual assault." These drugs also are used to help people commit other crimes, like robbery and physical assault. They are used on both men and women. The term "date rape" also can be misleading because the person who commits the crime might not be dating the victim. Rather, it could be an acquaintance or stranger.
[Return to Top]
What do the drugs look like?
* Rohypnol comes as a pill that dissolves in liquids. Some are small, round, and white. Newer pills are oval and green-gray in color. When slipped into a drink, a dye in these new pills makes clear liquids turn bright blue and dark drinks turn cloudy. But this color change might be hard to see in a dark drink, like cola or dark beer, or in a dark room. Also, the pills with no dye are still available. The pills may be ground up into a powder.
* GHB has a few forms: a liquid with no odor or color, white powder, and pill. It might give your drink a slightly salty taste. Mixing it with a sweet drink, such as fruit juice, can mask the salty taste.
* Ketamine comes as a liquid and a white powder.
[Return to Top]
What effects do these drugs have on the body?
These drugs are very powerful. They can affect you very quickly and without your knowing. The length of time that the effects last varies. It depends on how much of the drug is taken and if the drug is mixed with other drugs or alcohol. Alcohol makes the drugs even stronger and can cause serious health problems — even death.
Rohypnol
The effects of Rohypnol can be felt within 30 minutes of being drugged and can last for several hours. If you are drugged, you might look and act like someone who is drunk. You might have trouble standing. Your speech might be slurred. Or you might pass out. Rohypnol can cause these problems:
* Muscle relaxation or loss of muscle control
* Difficulty with motor movements
* Drunk feeling
* Problems talking
* Nausea
* Can't remember what happened while drugged
* Loss of consciousness (black out)
* Confusion
* Problems seeing
* Dizziness
* Sleepiness
* Lower blood pressure
* Stomach problems
* Death
GHB
GHB takes effect in about 15 minutes and can last 3 or 4 hours. It is very potent: A very small amount can have a big effect. So it's easy to overdose on GHB. Most GHB is made by people in home or street "labs." So, you don't know what's in it or how it will affect you. GHB can cause these problems:
* Relaxation
* Drowsiness
* Dizziness
* Nausea
* Problems seeing
* Loss of consciousness (black out)
* Seizures
* Can't remember what happened while drugged
* Problems breathing
* Tremors
* Sweating
* Vomiting
* Slow heart rate
* Dream-like feeling
* Coma
* Death
Ketamine
Ketamine is very fast-acting. You might be aware of what is happening to you, but unable to move. It also causes memory problems. Later, you might not be able to remember what happened while you were drugged. Ketamine can cause these problems:
* Distorted perceptions of sight and sound
* Lost sense of time and identity
* Out of body experiences
* Dream-like feeling
* Feeling out of control
* Impaired motor function
* Problems breathing
* Convulsions
* Vomiting
* Memory problems
* Numbness
* Loss of coordination
* Aggressive or violent behavior
* Depression
* High blood pressure
* Slurred speech
[Return to Top]
Are these drugs legal in the United States?
Some of these drugs are legal when lawfully used for medical purposes. But that doesn't mean they are safe. These drugs are powerful and can hurt you. They should only be used under a doctor's care and order.
* Rohypnol is NOT legal in the United States. It is legal in Europe and Mexico, where it is prescribed for sleep problems and to assist anesthesia before surgery. It is brought into the United States illegally.
* Ketamine is legal in the United States for use as an anesthetic for humans and animals. It is mostly used on animals. Veterinary clinics are robbed for their ketamine supplies.
* GHB was recently made legal in the United States to treat problems from narcolepsy (a sleep disorder). Distribution of GHB for this purpose is tightly restricted.
[Return to Top]
Is alcohol a date rape drug? What about other drugs?
Any drug that can affect judgment and behavior can put a person at risk for unwanted or risky sexual activity. Alcohol is one such drug. In fact, alcohol is the drug most commonly used to help commit sexual assault. When a person drinks too much alcohol:
* It's harder to think clearly.
* It's harder to set limits and make good choices.
* It's harder to tell when a situation could be dangerous.
* It's harder to say "no" to sexual advances.
* It's harder to fight back if a sexual assault occurs.
* It's possible to blackout and to have memory loss.
The club drug "ecstasy" (MDMA) has been used to commit sexual assault. It can be slipped into someone's drink without the person's knowledge. Also, a person who willingly takes ecstasy is at greater risk of sexual assault. Ecstasy can make a person feel "lovey-dovey" towards others. It also can lower a person's ability to give reasoned consent. Once under the drug's influence, a person is less able to sense danger or to resist a sexual assault.
Even if a victim of sexual assault drank alcohol or willingly took drugs, the victim is NOT at fault for being assaulted. You cannot "ask for it" or cause it to happen.
How can I protect myself from being a victim?
* Don't accept drinks from other people.
* Open containers yourself.
* Keep your drink with you at all times, even when you go to the bathroom.
* Don't share drinks.
* Don't drink from punch bowls or other common, open containers. They may already have drugs in them.
* If someone offers to get you a drink from a bar or at a party, go with the person to order your drink. Watch the drink being poured and carry it yourself.
* Don't drink anything that tastes or smells strange. Sometimes, GHB tastes salty.
* Have a nondrinking friend with you to make sure nothing happens.
* If you realize you left your drink unattended, pour it out.
* If you feel drunk and haven't drunk any alcohol — or, if you feel like the effects of drinking alcohol are stronger than usual — get help right away.
Are there ways to tell if I might have been drugged and raped?
It is often hard to tell. Most victims don't remember being drugged or assaulted. The victim might not be aware of the attack until 8 or 12 hours after it occurred. These drugs also leave the body very quickly. Once a victim gets help, there might be no proof that drugs were involved in the attack. But there are some signs that you might have been drugged:
* You feel drunk and haven't drunk any alcohol — or, you feel like the effects of drinking alcohol are stronger than usual.
* You wake up feeling very hung over and disoriented or having no memory of a period of time.
* You remember having a drink, but cannot recall anything after that.
* You find that your clothes are torn or not on right.
* You feel like you had sex, but you cannot remember it.
[Return to Top]
What should I do if I think I’ve been drugged and raped?
* Get medical care right away. Call 911 or have a trusted friend take you to a hospital emergency room. Don't urinate, douche, bathe, brush your teeth, wash your hands, change clothes, or eat or drink before you go. These things may give evidence of the rape. The hospital will use a "rape kit" to collect evidence.
* Call the police from the hospital. Tell the police exactly what you remember. Be honest about all your activities. Remember, nothing you did — including drinking alcohol or doing drugs — can justify rape.
* Ask the hospital to take a urine (pee) sample that can be used to test for date rape drugs. The drugs leave your system quickly. Rohypnol stays in the body for several hours, and can be detected in the urine up to 72 hours after taking it. GHB leaves the body in 12 hours. Don't urinate before going to the hospital.
* Don't pick up or clean up where you think the assault might have occurred. There could be evidence left behind — such as on a drinking glass or bed sheets.
* Get counseling and treatment. Feelings of shame, guilt, fear, and shock are normal. A counselor can help you work through these emotions and begin the healing process. Calling a crisis center or a hotline is a good place to start. One national hotline is the National Sexual Assault Hotline at 1-800-656-HOPE .
For more information
For more information on date rape drugs, please call womenshealth.gov at 1-800-994-9662 or contact the following organizations:
Drug Enforcement Administration, DOJ
Phone: (202) 307-1000
Internet Address: http://www.usdoj.gov/dea
Food and Drug Administration, OPHS, HHS
Phone: (800) 332-4010 Hotline or (888) 463-6332 (Consumer Information)
Internet Address: http://www.fda.gov
National Institute on Drug Abuse, NIH, HHS
Phone: (800) 662-4357 Hotline or (800) 662-9832 Spanish Language Hotline
Internet Address: http://www.drugabuse.gov
Office of National Drug Control Policy
Phone: (800) 666-3332 (Information Clearinghouse)
Internet Address: http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/index.html
Men Can Stop Rape
Phone: (202) 265-6530
Internet Address: http://www.mencanstoprape.org
National Center for Victims of Crime
Phone: (800) 394-2255
Internet Address: http://www.ncvc.org
Rape, Abuse, and Incest National Network
Phone: (800) 656-4673 (656-HOPE)
Internet Address: http://www.rainn.org
Reviewed by:
Susan Weiss
Chief, Science Policy Branch
National Institute on Drug Abuse
All material contained in this FAQ is free of copyright restrictions, and may be copied, reproduced, or duplicated without permission of the Office on Women's Health in the Department of Health and Human Services. Citation of the source is appreciated.
* What are date rape drugs?
* What do the drugs look like?
* What effects do these drugs have on the body?
* Are these drugs legal in the United States?
* Is alcohol a date rape drug? What about other drugs?
* How can I protect myself from being a victim?
* Are there ways to tell if I might have been drugged and raped?
* What should I do if I think I've been drugged and raped?
* For more information
See also . . .
* Sexual assault
[Return to Top]
What are date rape drugs?
These are drugs that are sometimes used to assist a sexual assault. Sexual assault is any type of sexual activity that a person does not agree to. It can include touching that is not okay; putting something into the vagina; sexual intercourse; rape; and attempted rape. These drugs are powerful and dangerous. They can be slipped into your drink when you are not looking. The drugs often have no color, smell, or taste, so you can't tell if you are being drugged. The drugs can make you become weak and confused — or even pass out — so that you are unable to refuse sex or defend yourself. If you are drugged, you might not remember what happened while you were drugged. Date rape drugs are used on both females and males.
The three most common date rape drugs are:
* Rohypnol (roh-HIP-nol). Rohypnol is the trade name for flunitrazepam (FLOO-neye-TRAZ-uh-pam). Abuse of two similar drugs appears to have replaced Rohypnol abuse in some parts of the United States. These are: clonazepam (marketed as Klonopin in the U.S.and Rivotril in Mexico) and alprazolam (marketed as Xanax). Rohypnol is also known as:
o Circles
o Forget Pill
o LA Rochas
o Lunch Money
o Mexican Valium
o Mind Erasers
o Poor Man's Quaalude
o R-2
o Rib
o Roach
o Roach-2
o Roches
o Roofies
o Roopies
o Rope
o Rophies
o Ruffies
o Trip-and-Fall
o Whiteys
* GHB, which is short for gamma hydroxybutyric (GAM-muh heye-DROX-ee-BYOO-tur-ihk) acid. GHB is also known as:
o Bedtime Scoop
o Cherry Meth
o Easy Lay
o Energy Drink
o G
o Gamma 10
o Georgia Home Boy
o G-Juice
o Gook
o Goop
o Great Hormones
o Grievous Bodily Harm (GBH)
o Liquid E
o Liquid Ecstasy
o Liquid X
o PM
o Salt Water
o Soap
o Somatomax
o Vita-G
* Ketamine (KEET-uh-meen), also known as:
o Black Hole
o Bump
o Cat Valium
o Green
o Jet
o K
o K-Hole
o Kit Kat
o Psychedelic Heroin
o Purple
o Special K
o Super Acid
These drugs also are known as "club drugs" because they tend to be used at dance clubs, concerts, and "raves."
The term "date rape" is widely used. But most experts prefer the term "drug-facilitated sexual assault." These drugs also are used to help people commit other crimes, like robbery and physical assault. They are used on both men and women. The term "date rape" also can be misleading because the person who commits the crime might not be dating the victim. Rather, it could be an acquaintance or stranger.
[Return to Top]
What do the drugs look like?
* Rohypnol comes as a pill that dissolves in liquids. Some are small, round, and white. Newer pills are oval and green-gray in color. When slipped into a drink, a dye in these new pills makes clear liquids turn bright blue and dark drinks turn cloudy. But this color change might be hard to see in a dark drink, like cola or dark beer, or in a dark room. Also, the pills with no dye are still available. The pills may be ground up into a powder.
* GHB has a few forms: a liquid with no odor or color, white powder, and pill. It might give your drink a slightly salty taste. Mixing it with a sweet drink, such as fruit juice, can mask the salty taste.
* Ketamine comes as a liquid and a white powder.
[Return to Top]
What effects do these drugs have on the body?
These drugs are very powerful. They can affect you very quickly and without your knowing. The length of time that the effects last varies. It depends on how much of the drug is taken and if the drug is mixed with other drugs or alcohol. Alcohol makes the drugs even stronger and can cause serious health problems — even death.
Rohypnol
The effects of Rohypnol can be felt within 30 minutes of being drugged and can last for several hours. If you are drugged, you might look and act like someone who is drunk. You might have trouble standing. Your speech might be slurred. Or you might pass out. Rohypnol can cause these problems:
* Muscle relaxation or loss of muscle control
* Difficulty with motor movements
* Drunk feeling
* Problems talking
* Nausea
* Can't remember what happened while drugged
* Loss of consciousness (black out)
* Confusion
* Problems seeing
* Dizziness
* Sleepiness
* Lower blood pressure
* Stomach problems
* Death
GHB
GHB takes effect in about 15 minutes and can last 3 or 4 hours. It is very potent: A very small amount can have a big effect. So it's easy to overdose on GHB. Most GHB is made by people in home or street "labs." So, you don't know what's in it or how it will affect you. GHB can cause these problems:
* Relaxation
* Drowsiness
* Dizziness
* Nausea
* Problems seeing
* Loss of consciousness (black out)
* Seizures
* Can't remember what happened while drugged
* Problems breathing
* Tremors
* Sweating
* Vomiting
* Slow heart rate
* Dream-like feeling
* Coma
* Death
Ketamine
Ketamine is very fast-acting. You might be aware of what is happening to you, but unable to move. It also causes memory problems. Later, you might not be able to remember what happened while you were drugged. Ketamine can cause these problems:
* Distorted perceptions of sight and sound
* Lost sense of time and identity
* Out of body experiences
* Dream-like feeling
* Feeling out of control
* Impaired motor function
* Problems breathing
* Convulsions
* Vomiting
* Memory problems
* Numbness
* Loss of coordination
* Aggressive or violent behavior
* Depression
* High blood pressure
* Slurred speech
[Return to Top]
Are these drugs legal in the United States?
Some of these drugs are legal when lawfully used for medical purposes. But that doesn't mean they are safe. These drugs are powerful and can hurt you. They should only be used under a doctor's care and order.
* Rohypnol is NOT legal in the United States. It is legal in Europe and Mexico, where it is prescribed for sleep problems and to assist anesthesia before surgery. It is brought into the United States illegally.
* Ketamine is legal in the United States for use as an anesthetic for humans and animals. It is mostly used on animals. Veterinary clinics are robbed for their ketamine supplies.
* GHB was recently made legal in the United States to treat problems from narcolepsy (a sleep disorder). Distribution of GHB for this purpose is tightly restricted.
[Return to Top]
Is alcohol a date rape drug? What about other drugs?
Any drug that can affect judgment and behavior can put a person at risk for unwanted or risky sexual activity. Alcohol is one such drug. In fact, alcohol is the drug most commonly used to help commit sexual assault. When a person drinks too much alcohol:
* It's harder to think clearly.
* It's harder to set limits and make good choices.
* It's harder to tell when a situation could be dangerous.
* It's harder to say "no" to sexual advances.
* It's harder to fight back if a sexual assault occurs.
* It's possible to blackout and to have memory loss.
The club drug "ecstasy" (MDMA) has been used to commit sexual assault. It can be slipped into someone's drink without the person's knowledge. Also, a person who willingly takes ecstasy is at greater risk of sexual assault. Ecstasy can make a person feel "lovey-dovey" towards others. It also can lower a person's ability to give reasoned consent. Once under the drug's influence, a person is less able to sense danger or to resist a sexual assault.
Even if a victim of sexual assault drank alcohol or willingly took drugs, the victim is NOT at fault for being assaulted. You cannot "ask for it" or cause it to happen.
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