Assessing the net value of children 美国社会养孩子回报率太低

Assessing the net value of children
The U.S. birth rate is falling. One explanation: a diminishing return on investment.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/31/magazines/fortune/children_value_benefits.fortune/index.htm

Fortune Magazine) -- What is the value of a child in modern Western industrial society? More specifically, what is the value of a middle-class or upper-middle-class or upper-class child in America? And does this have anything to do with the fact that the birth rate among American women has been falling for decades and that the age of first childbirth among educated women is far higher than among less-well-educated women?

Start with economics. People in a free society will choose to have more of something if its return exceeds its cost. On the other hand, people in a free society will choose to have less of a good or service if its value is less than its cost.

Now, what is a modern child? Obviously, not a good or service, but something more and also something less. Long ago, as we all know, humans had children because they liked having sex and because children had some value as assistant hunters and gatherers and keepers of the hearth.

Then, as society became more organized, families chose to have children because the parents (we assume) still liked having sex and the resulting children were helpful on the farm or the ranch or in the village smithy. The kids did not require much -- just food and shelter and occasional loving and cuffing about to keep them in line.

Now we can have sex without having children. That is a major factor in life, but by itself it does not explain why people do not necessarily want to have kids.

Maybe the reason is largely because raising modern children is such a major pain in the neck. For one thing, thanks to a variety of factors, often parents have to struggle like galley slaves to get their offspring into private schools and pay for them.

The private school parent also has to pony up for every kind of lesson -- ballet, horse, and music lessons, math tutoring, and chess club. The parent also has to drive the little ones to all of these events as well as to the "play dates" that lurk like unanesthetized colonoscopies in modern life. Then there is the most horrible event a healthy upper-middle-class American can have: social engagements with the parents of Junior's classmates.

In other words, we are talking about child rearing as part unpaid chauffeur, part torture.

Then there is college and a real course in horrors getting the darling in somewhere that won't embarrass you in front of your pals at the club. That's before paying for the school, which is a stunning slap in the face. Total college costs at a "prestige" school can easily touch $70,000 a year, real money for most people.

And after graduation day, what do you get for having the system holding you by your ankles and shaking all the money out of your pockets? You might have a son with a law degree who cannot get a job, a daughter with a film-school degree who works as a masseuse, or a musician who keeps you up all night with his drums.

You are very likely to have one who cannot spell "gratitude" and has a sense of entitlement that would make Marie Antoinette blush. How many of each kind have you observed with your own eyes? I might add that by pure luck, my wife and I do have a dutiful, helpful son and daughter-in-law. How this happened I am not quite sure.

But my son is an aberration, as far as I can tell. Look around you. The costs and benefits of having children in affluent America are wildly off kilter. Too much cost, too little reward. Often the cost-benefit analysis of children prints out "Get a German shorthaired pointer instead."

Many people are doing that, and the birth rate is collapsing. But if we stop having enough children, because their value is so low relative to their cost, the society grinds down. It's happening right now. The native-born upper middle class barely replace themselves in America, if they do at all. In a way we are committing suicide as a class, possibly in part because of the burdens of child rearing in modern life.

What is the net present value of a child in modern America? Often, it's difficult to find much, and thereby hangs a question mark over our future as a nation, at least as we have known it.

Ben Stein is an actor, lawyer, writer, and economist who also appears in commercials as a spokesman for various companies.

在现代西方工业社会中，一个孩子的价值是多少 更具体一点说，美国中产阶级，上中层阶级或者下层阶级中一个孩子的价值究竟是多少 这一点是否和数十年来美国妇女生育率持续下降，以及受过教育的妇女生育第一个孩子的年龄要比没有受过同样教育的人高得多的实事相关联

　　先从经济学的角度说起吧。自由社会的人将会选择更多回报超过成本的东西。反之，自由社会的人同样会不选择那些价值不及价格的商品或服务。

　　然么，怎样看待孩子呢 显然他们不是商品也不是服务，某些方面的特质是商品不具备的，某些方面还想由不及商品。远古时期，正如我们都知道的，人类要孩子一方面是生理需要，一方面也可以帮他们打猎，采摘和看守炉火。

　　然后，社会进化得更有组织性，家庭选择要孩子一方面还是生理需要，一方面是因为孩子们可以在农场，牧场或是铁匠铺中充当助手。孩子们的需求不多，不过是吃饱穿暖有地方住，偶尔给与他们一些爱抚，或是办错事时教训一下他们。

　　现在我们可以控制生育。但是仅凭这一点也许不能完全解释为什么人们不一定需要孩子。

　　可能一个主要的原因就是现在孩子给父母们带来了很多难题。其中之一就是，由于各种各样的原因是，父母们经常需要累死累活才能给后代提供到私立学校受良好教育的机会。

　　私立学校上学的孩子的父母也需要为各种各样的课程付费：芭蕾课，马术课，音乐课，数学辅导，还有象棋俱乐部等等。另外家长还要让孩子去接受诸如不施麻醉的结肠镜检查等各种医检。健康的中上层美国孩子的家长还必须面对这样的场面：和孩子同学的家长进行社交往来。

　　一句话，现代社会抚养孩子就意味着当免费的私人司机，还要受到各种折磨。

　　然后就是大学了。大学学费会让很多家长大跌眼镜。一所“有名望的”大学每年的学费动则就会到$70，000，这对很多美国人来说是相当可观的一笔数字。

　　接着到了大学大学毕业那一天，在受了这么多年苦，花了这么多钱后，你会得到什么呢 你儿子可能法学院毕业却找不到工作，女儿电影学院毕业很可能去当了按摩师，或者你可能有个音乐家儿子，整晚敲鼓让你没法睡觉。

　　你还很可能有一个不知感恩为何物，认为一切理所当然的孩子。这样的例子你一定亲眼看到了不少。笔者本人纯凭运气，有一对孝顺的儿子儿媳。我自己也不清楚怎会有这样的运气。

　　但是据我所知，我儿子纯属意外偏差。看看你的周围吧。富裕美国家庭抚养孩子的成本和收益大大不平衡。成本太高，收益太小。经常在作完养孩子的成本收益分析后，你会得到这样的结论：“不如去养条德国短毛猎犬吧！”

　　很多人确实是这样选择的，所以出生率下降了。但是因为养孩子成本收益率太低，就不抚养足够多的孩子，社会也会出现危机。现在已经出现了这种情况：本土出生的美国上中层阶级很少能子承父业了。由于在现代社会抚养孩子的负担太重，在某种程度上说，作为一个阶级我们正在自杀。

　　现代美国社会中孩子的现在净价值是多少 我们很难得出很高的价值。这也为美国的未来带来了一个问题。